Blog: CS:GO Team ranking (August 2015)

Introduction


[INDENT]I've been working on a CSGO team ranking for 8 months. I'm pretty confident in its accuracy and will now post it every month in here with details on how teams gained or lost ranks.[/INDENT]

Reminder : Ranking formula
50% achievements : tournaments performance with time decay
30% form : matches performance over 3 months
20% LANs : last 10 LANs results




August results


[INDENT]Tournaments results[/INDENT]




[INDENT]Matches results[/INDENT]






The World Ranking






[INDENT]Evolution
This is a relative ranking, which means that teams points are related to the best team performance. In this case, a lot of teams lost points because of Fnatic's win.
For example, a team with 100 points will have a positive ratio if they earn 10% points of Fnatic but a team with 800 points will probably have a negative ratio if they don't win a big tournament.[/INDENT]



[INDENT]Community ranking
I collected more than 600 answers on a survey asking you what were your rankings. I used the results to create a community ranking and compared my ranking to this one, that's the meaning of the last column.[/INDENT]



[INDENT]Lineups
The changes in a team will affect the ranking, the team loose points in function of the number of players leaving it. The players don't "bring" points to the new team, which means teams are rewarded for stability in their rosters.[/INDENT]






Details


[INDENT]Achievements Sub-ranking
Long term ranking (1year), rewarding teams for their performances on every tournaments.
Date, class of the tournament, prize pool, format and rankings of the attending teams are parameters that determine weight of the tournament.[/INDENT]





[INDENT]Form Sub-ranking
Short term ranking(3months) with only matches bringing points without considering if they are important or not. Number of wins, maps and round ratios , average opponent and best win are parameters used to build this ranking. Results against tier1 teams are also taken in account (number of maps won , X2 on LAN)[/INDENT]



[INDENT]LANs Sub-Ranking
It's a particular ranking that rewards teams that perform good on LANs even if they don't attend many tournaments. LANs with at least 40k$ prize-pool are recorded.[/INDENT]




Analysis

The community ranking will help me to focus on some teams that you ranked higher or lower than I did.

[INDENT]Community ranking :
1 Fnatic 992
2 TSM 703
3 EnVy 688
4 Virtus.pro 584
5 NaVi 526
6 Cloud 9 345
7 NiP 329
8 mousesports 291
9 Kinguin 289
10 Luminosity 259
11 Titan 256
12 Dignitas 235
13 HellRaisers 219
14 FlipSid3 218
15 Renegades 218
16 CLG 209
17 E-Frag 183
18 SK Gaming 176
19 Liquid 167
20 PENTA 156[/INDENT]

Fnatic
They have a huge advance on the second team ! The 1000 total means they are leading the 3 sub-rankings, and they are leading by far.. 730 points for Virtus.pro means they are 73% of Fnatic's force.

Virtus.pro / TSM / EnVy
Virtus.pro is above EnVy and TSM because of their past results and because they reached the semi-final of the Major. EnVy would have taken the 2nd spot if there weren't any penalty points for changes. TSM is gaining point over VP because of their IEM Gamescom 2nd place.
Those teams will fight for this 2nd spot next month in Dubai !

NaVi / Cloud9 / NiP
They lost a lot of points because of their under performances in Cologne, as I mentioned earlier NaVi losing more points than Cloud9 should be understood in another sense than "NaVi did worst than Cloud9" : NaVi were ranked very high so the expectancy was very high too. Relative points <> Actual points .

Dignitas / mousesports / HellRaisers
Even if Kinguin and Luminosity performed well in Cologne, that isn't enough to catch up with this trio. The Niko change in the mouz roster put them behind Dignitas. Dignitas without attending the Major limited the points lost by playing a lot and winning a lot , they got the 8th spot for this month.

Kinguin / Luminosity / Renegades
Kinguin is a new team in the "achievements" ranking and Luminosity and Renegades are teams that don't attend a lot of tournaments. The Major boosted their ranking but they can't be ranked as high as the community think in this ranking because of this lack of matches they are suffering.

Titan
I understand why they are ranked so high in the community ranking but.. they are still playing bad and losing everything ! They won't be able to reach the top10 so easily, I think they aren't so overrated but they missed every opportunities to step up..

Property / CPH Wolves / PENTA
Teams with a lot of fans, but with a lot of recent changes or bad results. They are not top teams as some still think, they could very fast climb up again but for now they are dropping on the Tier3 side.

Fraternitas / Space Soldiers / Method / Reason
You can see that the long term ranking doesn't mean a lot for the tier3 teams, that allows teams like these to climb very fast the ladder with wins streaks. Fraternitas is the best example winning 2 matches out of 3 against top20 teams this month.


Thanks

Thank you for reading this blog, I tried to add transparency on my ranking and I hope you liked it !
Feel free to post any remark or question, or check my profile for more informations.


Topeiko, the belgian mathematician
eslgaming.com/worldranking/csgo#/ 2 world rankings? Did ESL stole your name? Feedback: too many subranks and tables. Ive got lost and bored after 30%. Also too gray.
2015-09-01 13:09
i swear you comment the same comment every time on this guys rankings wtf
2015-09-21 00:40
#4
 | 
Russia Reph 
yay, Reason is tier 3 already. Hunden, we're believe <3
2015-09-01 13:13
n1, good list, tho i would rank lg higher and hr and dignitas lower Community ranking is 100% on point imo
2015-09-01 13:16
I like it too, I'll make one every month (1 week before the release of the mathematical one) ! But as I said, LG can't be top10 with the way I'm making this ranking, I'm sad but it'll never happen if LG keep performing only in majors :-/
2015-09-01 13:23
It's probably because LG has never won a Bo3 against a top10 EU team. Only some very close Bo1's. Dignitas have been good online and played well at Dreamhack + Gfinity, HR just won a LAN with TSM and top tier2 teams attending.
2015-09-01 13:27
Lg actually played few bo3s... And all of them agais nt fnatic and virtus pro.
2015-09-01 16:37
That's the problem! Same for Renegades.. European teams have lot of chances to fight against big teams in BO3 but when it happens for LG or RG even in BO1 it's difficult. And as they don't win that much they can't be ranked higher, an only-world tournaments would be fairer to Brazil and Australia
2015-09-01 17:00
yeah, I see... Anyway great topic man!
2015-09-01 20:57
#83
Norway apEZ 
Theyve never won.
2015-09-02 21:49
tl;dr now but might look into it later looks good m8
2015-09-01 13:15
Should I put the ranking on top ? So people could check it easily without reading the details?
2015-09-01 13:18
I don't know man, then some people might just read that and the other hard work you put in will be wasted. It's your call.
2015-09-01 13:19
#37
Australia BCP 
NO BAD IDEA, 90% of people will just look at the ranking, comment something stupid and wont bother reading the reasoning. with the way you did it here if people want to see the ranking first they consciously skip the reasoning, and when they see things they dont understand in the ranking they will have in mind that they skipped the explanations. majority of those who cant bother to scroll down to the actual ranking dont care anyway. its just how hltv is.
2015-09-01 14:45
Tl;dr fnatic top1 Nice work tho
2015-09-01 13:18
#12
Spain Ayrr 
Didn't read all, just some stuff. Might check it later with more time. But it looks so nice and very detailed, gj topeiko.
2015-09-01 13:19
Thanks ! ;-) I don't want people to read everything but I wanted to be the more clear possible to make people believe in my ranking.. So if you like it you don't really need to read the "proofs" I put in it
2015-09-01 13:21
You're always the best
2015-09-01 13:21
It looks quite decent all tho'. I'd rather have you update it quite often but it's your choice if you don't want to.
2015-09-01 13:23
I will update it here : csgo2015.sitew.be/ But it would be impossible for me to bring that many datas on a blog after every tournament :-/
2015-09-01 13:28
I do understand that. Bookmarked that page. How often are you planning on updating it? Once in two to three months?
2015-09-01 13:36
#39
Australia BCP 
he said in the blog he will post a blog like this one every 1st of a month. he normally updates the website once in 2 weeks or so.
2015-09-01 14:49
Oh whow, how did I miss that? :D Thanks.
2015-09-01 17:31
#61
Australia BCP 
youre welcome mr fake thorin :)
2015-09-01 18:01
#18
GuardiaN | 
Slovakia fpmK 
Good job as always dude. But one thing I disagree that navi underperformed more than C9. Ok I get your point there but problem is we can say that everyone expected atleast semifinal from navi and they get to quarterfinal and on the other hand we have C9 and everyone expected quarterfinal atleast but they didnt advance from group and now ask yourself which is harder get out of group or get to semifinal. I like your work so much good read.
2015-09-01 13:27
Yep, in points they underperformed more but in fact they did a decent major I agree with you ;-) Thank you again !
2015-09-01 13:31
Nobody expected a quarterfinal from C9. I knew they would be out in groups but still placed sticker for them.
2015-09-01 13:45
amazing stuff dude!
2015-09-01 13:50
#25
 | 
Turkey powergs 
Dude nv tsm 2-1 not 2-0 And n1
2015-09-01 13:56
Yep! Corrected ;-) Thank you
2015-09-01 14:07
good blog here. Took a while to read but it explains EVERY little bit behind the ranking. good read topeiko
2015-09-01 13:57
I put a lot of time and effort on it , I hope others will see that too ! Thanks Resey :)
2015-09-01 14:12
really nice work here. good job dude!
2015-09-01 14:04
#29
 | 
Germany OfficialKown 
Dignitas > Kinguin ? I arent think that
2015-09-01 14:08
...
2015-09-01 15:18
#54
 | 
Germany OfficialKown 
cool boy
2015-09-01 16:52
Awesome work
2015-09-01 14:10
#32
 | 
Switzerland BottomFragger 
Haven't read the whole thing but the overall ranking seems to be spot on. :)
2015-09-01 14:13
#33
Australia BCP 
great blog, enjoyed the read. i like the extra explanations on this one for everything in the ranking, helps those who are curious about some things understand why teams are where they are. now that youre scheduling these for every 1st i always have a reason to look forward for the next month ;) i think this is the best version of the ranking yet - shame envy and mouz are getting penalties but i do agree with the principal. keep it up!
2015-09-01 14:23
Thanks again ! I keep trying harder and harder with this, at least this time there aren't a lot of "stopped reading after VP > TSM" or such things :)
2015-09-01 14:49
#40
Australia BCP 
right now its harder to argue that tsm>vp because of tsm's underperformance, and they only have themselves to blame :) i think they will have a better end of year though
2015-09-01 14:51
yep They lose a lot of game they shouldn't lose.
2015-09-01 15:55
Tier 1 is solid, tier two in general is difficult to rank because they tend to play predominantly online leagues (especially dignitas), but still a solid ranking.
2015-09-01 14:26
Well done +1
2015-09-01 14:27
CLG IS STILL INFRONT OF RENEGADES ALLAHU ACKBAR
2015-09-01 14:52
Very well done! I love graphs
2015-09-01 14:55
exlgb tier3 nice
2015-09-01 15:04
#44
Xyp9x | 
Belgium f1ntch 
Nice job !
2015-09-01 15:05
Community ranking is actually really accurate surprisingly. The problem when ranking with a system is that it is too black and white and takes it at face value rather then context of what really happened
2015-09-01 15:08
Dignitas most overrated team ever. Not Even managed to qual for a major yet. They keep getting invites to lans that other teams that are on the same level as them dosent.
2015-09-01 15:18
They have already dropped 10th with their recents matches ;-)
2015-09-04 13:57
pretty accurate actually. gj
2015-09-01 15:26
Agree and much better then _Top_Ranking_
2015-09-01 16:01
Thanks ! :) But I'm not sure if "better than Top Ranking" is a compliment .. ^^
2015-09-01 20:52
yeah haha it's almost an insult "hey you are much better than that pile of shit over there"
2015-09-21 01:28
I Agree With Most Of It But Not All. Of Course I Understand Why Teams Are Where They Are. But Definitely Good Blog! Nice Work!
2015-09-01 16:36
Why Do You Write Like This?
2015-09-01 16:40
so I don't look like a fucking degenerate
2015-09-01 21:22
This is a really good top world ranking, gratz m8. I agree with the part of LG and Renegades, so few tournaments for them to pratice against top10 teams, but will see in the next major.
2015-09-01 17:17
#57
Denmark Pimp 
You nailed it! ;)
2015-09-01 17:20
Oh thanks ! :) Really happy to know that players could like it too ! Be careful, Dignitas > mousesports because of Spiidi/Niko switch, keep up the good results guys ! :)
2015-09-01 17:44
#66
Australia BCP 
pimp :D please qualify for dreamhack :(
2015-09-01 18:59
#60
 | 
Czech Republic Skleepy 
Great work mate, I couldn´t agree more. Keep up the good work, it´s appreciated. :)) Btw: Fraternitas attend some LAN for god sake! :DD
2015-09-01 18:00
They'll surely keep climbing the rankings ;-) Even without attending big LANs.. I didn't see them so strong until they appeared in my ranking and I started looking at their results, I think this is a future good team :)
2015-09-01 18:09
your name reminds me of topeka
2015-09-01 18:04
Oh! I didn't know this was a city, I just entered random letters a few years ago to make this nickname ..
2015-09-01 22:00
hah nice coincidence
2015-09-01 22:40
Good job dude.
2015-09-01 18:07
Really good list, best I have seen from these calculated blogs.
2015-09-01 19:13
Thanks for putting time into this, your ranking is imo the most accurate and clearest of all I saw. Keep up the good work ;)
2015-09-01 22:14
"Merci/dank je wel" belgian friend :)
2015-09-01 22:21
Penta +88 KEK
2015-09-01 22:21
+1 very nice
2015-09-01 23:36
Such a detailed an full control my friend analism,very well done.
2015-09-02 07:16
Thanks for this ranking, a lot of effort in it, and makes actually sense :)
2015-09-02 16:34
Thanks to you! This is only the start of something bigger.. :-)
2015-09-02 17:38
Well at least its better than TOp Rankings top teams list.
2015-09-02 21:44
kinguin top4
2015-09-04 13:58
#86
Australia BCP 
nt
2015-09-04 17:12
actually, you're not so far ;-) They are climbing to 7-8th spot after this tournament !
2015-09-08 22:04
Updated ranking after Dubai : 1 Fnatic 965 2 Virtus.pro 940 3 TSM 845 4 EnVy 615 5 NaVi 537 6 NiP 431 7 Cloud 9 352 8 G2.Kinguin 335 9 Titan 261 10 CLG 250 11 Luminosity 245 12 mousesports 244 13 HellRaisers 224 14 Dignitas 209 15 FlipSid3 199 16 E-Frag 176 17 Liquid 167 18 Renegades 140 19 SK Gaming 134 20 Dobry&Gaming 99 HellRaisers, Dignitas lost points due to their player changes. csgo2015.sitew.be/#Main.G
2015-09-13 10:57
#89
 | 
Latvia Ke]R[4u 
holy shit, great work mate, very close to truth
2015-09-13 10:57
Thanks man :)
2015-09-13 10:57
NT but nerdrage T2 confirmed (online)
2015-09-19 07:19
Why dodging lan again?
2015-09-19 07:46
Lan Dodger inc.
2015-09-19 07:58
Not far.. (31th in the last ranking) The problem is the lineups changes, as you don't have always the same team your team doesn't earn as much points than it could
2015-09-21 00:38
Updated ranking after DH London 1 Fnatic 989 2 Virtus.pro 939 3 TSM 917 4 EnVy 765 5 NaVi 548 6 NiP 498 7 G2 363 8 Cloud 9 341 9 CLG 269 10 Dignitas 269 11 Luminosity 263 12 mousesports 258 13 Titan 252 14 Liquid 234 15 HellRaisers 219 16 FlipSid3 189 17 E-Frag 182 18 Renegades 136 19 SK Gaming 125 20 Dobry&Gaming 110 csgo2015.sitew.be/#Main.G
2015-09-21 00:46
Where is ebettle,nerdrage i think this teams can beat Renegades and Liquid easily.
2015-09-21 01:24
eBettle = Vexed (23 or 24th) Yes they could possibly beat Renegades or Liquid but their only really good achievement was to qualify to the major, RG did that too and Liquid won lot of other matches and performed good recently in the NA scene. I think Vexed can climb the ranking but for now they didn't achieved enough to be in the top20 regarding these parameters
2015-09-21 01:28
slightly modified ranking now, go check the site (forgot about some matches..)
2015-09-21 01:37
awesome job and nice read.your promis that you will try to make somehing like this is fulfilled(if you remember me and our little discussion about top ranking:))
2015-09-21 00:47
I remember your nick but don't remember what we said about him (too much talk about this guy on this site.. ^^) And thank you, it's not over yet ! Thanks for the support :)
2015-09-21 00:52
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