Polls and media are working for him. So, it is a stupid reason. Last year polls said Erdogan will get 55%-60% but he barely won with 51% and stealing some votes. Unsealed voting papers are counted like sealed ones etc. Plus, opposition side is stronger now. If he doesnt get more than 50%, he is tend to lose this time. Because all the people who dont vote for Erdogan will vote for one person at the 2nd round. Unfortunately, they will try to steal some votes and manipulate the results. I hope they wont be successful this time.