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Was NiP Hard Done By? THE TRUTH (maybe)
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United Kingdom Lightning_DC_ 
Ok boys, so NiP weren’t able to make top 8 after a New Legends stage of very tough/unlucky draws… at least that’s the narrative. Well, let’s work out some numbers to go along with my flair and look for answers. In the below I will: Work out the average ranking of each team’s opponents (HLTV rankings as of 10th September) Compare that to the team’s ranking to give a + / - differential, and test for statistical significance Look at who played the most top 10 and top 5 teams Add a TL;DR for those who aren't interested in numbers or are just lazy readers :) NB. A positive difference means on average you played easier teams than your ranking. Astralis: Rank 1, average played 7 (4 opponents), difference 6 BIG: Rank 9, average played 13.75 (4 opponents), difference 4.75 C9: Rank 23, average played 24 (4 opponents), difference 1 compLexity: Rank 24, average played 13.33 (3 opponents), difference -10.67 FaZe: Rank 5, average played 9.4 (5 opponents), difference 4.4 Fnatic: Rank 11, average played 20.4 (5 opponents), difference 9.4 G2: Rank 20, average played 14.6 (5 opponents), difference -5.4 Hellraisers: Rank 14, average played 15 (5 opponents), difference 1 Liquid: Rank 3, average played 18.33 (3 opponents), difference 15.33 MIBR: Rank 7, average played 9 (5 opponents) difference 2 Mouz: Rank 4, average played 6.67 (3 opponents), difference 2.67 NaVi: Rank 2, average played 6.25 (4 opponents), difference 4.25 NiP: Rank 8, average played 6.4 (5 opponents), difference -1.6 TyLoo: Rank 12, average played 8.75 (4 opponents), difference 3.25 Vega: Rank 16, average played 10.75 (4 opponents), difference -5.25 Winstrike: Rank 46, average played 12 (3 opponents), difference -34 Note the following: Anyone who played Winstrike saw the average ranking of the teams they played skewed heavily. I used the September 10th rankings for this reason and not September 3rd rankings, as Vega at 211 would have skewed everything. World ranking is not necessarily a good representation of how well all teams played through all rounds but it’s the best measure we have This was all done by me in Excel, mostly manually, and so there could be an immaterial error in the numbers or a typo in the above. So, were NiP hard done by? Did they on average play better teams than them? Yes, but the difference was not statistically significant, even when I remove Winstrike's difference and recalculate Did anyone else play three of the top five teams? No (Astralis, FaZe, MIBR and NaVi all played 2) Did anyone else play four of the top 10? No (Astralis, FaZe, MIBR, Mouz, NaVi and TyLoo all played 3) Did any other top 10 play on average higher ranked teams than them? No TL:DR – NiP were slightly hard done by according to the stats For anyone who's still reading: Toughest average opponents for team who qualified: NaVi at 6.25 Easiest average opponents for eliminated team: C9 at 24 Biggest negative difference for team who qualified: coL at -10.67 Biggest positive difference for eliminated team: Fnatic at 9.4
2018-09-18 00:50
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#1
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United Kingdom Lightning_DC_ 
Bump because no one will read this at the time I posted it
2018-09-18 11:03
Didnt read anyway
2018-09-18 11:07
#6
f0rest | 
Serbia dankoBGD 
+1
2018-09-18 11:32
Very interesting thread you made. I also thought either Navi or nip had the hardest route in the minor. Unluckily it's hard to consider form in these kind of calculations. Complexity being a lower ranked team then fnatic but more in form thus making them a more difficult opponent.
2018-09-18 11:13
#10
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United Kingdom Lightning_DC_ 
Ty, and exactly, the fact the New Challengers stage is just a week before New Legends stage is a big advantage imo; 7/8 of Challenger teams won their first match (only Hellraisers lost, in double OT).
2018-09-18 11:39
#4
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Serbia MadvillaiN_bgd 
+1 nice one man
2018-09-18 11:14
#8
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United Kingdom Lightning_DC_ 
Ty
2018-09-18 11:38
#5
Happy | 
Brazil Kurtt 
The truth is that nip is not yet a tier1 team before rez and dennis were playing as gods, while get was pushing the team down, now get right finally played very well (oh my god thank you for seeing this again) and f0rest played very well but meanwhile dennis was off from the minor and group stage of this major, rez was not brilliant and mainly against mibr he died several times with unnecessary advances nip map pool is not so good they were practically gods in the cache and now cache is not so good so only mirage is a map where they can beat a tier1 team as they did against astralis nip train is literally terrible just watch the game against tyloo or against vega you will see a series of mistakes for lack of teamplay I believe they need more time ... ok but if you, me or heaton want to see nip again at the top and quickly, they should get 3 tier 1 players to the places of lekro, rez and dennis, the problem is if nip would have enough money as it does to make big transactions
2018-09-18 11:30
#7
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United Kingdom Lightning_DC_ 
If Lekr0 is the IGL then they can’t really remove him, and REZ could be the best Swedish player in future because his rifling is phenomenal at his best. Dennis is performing below par but the team say he’s doing some of the hard roles like a lot of entry fragging and stuff. The eye test does say he could be playing better though. Thorin said on Twitter that -Dennis +KRiMZ would be interesting
2018-09-18 11:37
#13
Happy | 
Brazil Kurtt 
I think players like s1mple, olof and yes krimz would fall like a glove on this nip team, they could bring glory days again, yes rez has the potential to be such a big and important player in the future, now it's something that will take a while enough and I'm already in anguish to see NiP without getting trophies or at least get to be LEGEND of a major; / I fear that f0rest and get right can not stand waiting so long so too they getting so old and I'm always afraid that they will retire after each "failure"
2018-09-18 11:44
#15
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United Kingdom Lightning_DC_ 
Both GTR and f0rest still sound pretty motivated in interviews, and now that GTR’s form his getting better his grind is being rewarded, so as long as his health stays he will compete. Olof would be an interesting one but NiP probably couldn’t match his FaZe salary. KRiMZ was a beast at the start of the year but dropped off after they kicked Golden.
2018-09-18 11:51
this is the most text I have seen in my entire life....my head hurts now
2018-09-18 11:38
that seems about right
2018-09-18 11:41
#12
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Romania dadanudada 
Well i think that’s not really true as for example there is not so much difference between #25 and #20 let’s say, as between #10 and #1 we should consider an “significance grade”. Plus, the rankings consider very much their achievments such not all teams have attended the same events, i think it’s a more complex job to find the true statistics but nice job anyway
2018-09-18 11:44
#14
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United Kingdom Lightning_DC_ 
Fair point you raise. If I’d wanted to go even more detailed I guess I could have used the points for each team rather than their rank, as that would have shown the gap between different teams (e.g. Astralis has a bigger gap to NaVi than NaVi has to Liquid for instance).
2018-09-18 11:49
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