Ok boys, so NiP weren’t able to make top 8 after a New Legends stage of very tough/unlucky draws… at least that’s the narrative. Well, let’s work out some numbers to go along with my flair and look for answers.
In the below I will:
Work out the average ranking of each team’s opponents (HLTV rankings as of 10th September)
Compare that to the team’s ranking to give a + / - differential, and test for statistical significance
Look at who played the most top 10 and top 5 teams
Add a TL;DR for those who aren't interested in numbers or are just lazy readers :)
NB. A positive difference means on average you played easier teams than your ranking.
Astralis: Rank 1, average played 7 (4 opponents), difference 6
BIG: Rank 9, average played 13.75 (4 opponents), difference 4.75
C9: Rank 23, average played 24 (4 opponents), difference 1
compLexity: Rank 24, average played 13.33 (3 opponents), difference -10.67
FaZe: Rank 5, average played 9.4 (5 opponents), difference 4.4
Fnatic: Rank 11, average played 20.4 (5 opponents), difference 9.4
G2: Rank 20, average played 14.6 (5 opponents), difference -5.4
Hellraisers: Rank 14, average played 15 (5 opponents), difference 1
Liquid: Rank 3, average played 18.33 (3 opponents), difference 15.33
MIBR: Rank 7, average played 9 (5 opponents) difference 2
Mouz: Rank 4, average played 6.67 (3 opponents), difference 2.67
NaVi: Rank 2, average played 6.25 (4 opponents), difference 4.25
NiP: Rank 8, average played 6.4 (5 opponents), difference -1.6
TyLoo: Rank 12, average played 8.75 (4 opponents), difference 3.25
Vega: Rank 16, average played 10.75 (4 opponents), difference -5.25
Winstrike: Rank 46, average played 12 (3 opponents), difference -34
Note the following:
Anyone who played Winstrike saw the average ranking of the teams they played skewed heavily. I used the September 10th rankings for this reason and not September 3rd rankings, as Vega at 211 would have skewed everything.
World ranking is not necessarily a good representation of how well all teams played through all rounds but it’s the best measure we have
This was all done by me in Excel, mostly manually, and so there could be an immaterial error in the numbers or a typo in the above.
So, were NiP hard done by?
Did they on average play better teams than them? Yes, but the difference was not statistically significant, even when I remove Winstrike's difference and recalculate
Did anyone else play three of the top five teams? No (Astralis, FaZe, MIBR and NaVi all played 2)
Did anyone else play four of the top 10? No (Astralis, FaZe, MIBR, Mouz, NaVi and TyLoo all played 3)
Did any other top 10 play on average higher ranked teams than them? No
TL:DR – NiP were slightly hard done by according to the stats
For anyone who's still reading:
Toughest average opponents for team who qualified: NaVi at 6.25
Easiest average opponents for eliminated team: C9 at 24
Biggest negative difference for team who qualified: coL at -10.67
Biggest positive difference for eliminated team: Fnatic at 9.4