"Thus in 2050 human civilization will collapse due to climate change"
An alarming analysis by researchers at the Australian National Center for Climate Restoration outlines a scenario in which global warming will exceed three degrees Celsius by 2050, triggering fatal alterations of the global ecosystem and colossal migrations from at least a billion people. Here's what could happen year after year
A lost decade. Between 2020 and 2030 the world policy-makers blatantly underestimate the risks of climate change, losing the last chance to mobilize all the technological and economic resources available towards a single goal: to build an economy with zero emissions, trying to reduce levels of CO2, to have a realistic chance of keeping global warming well below two degrees. The last occasion is blatantly burned.
The result is that in 2030, as scientists Yangyang Xu and Veerabhadran Ramanthan had warned in a scientific publication that had been debating thirteen years earlier, carbon dioxide emissions reach levels never seen in the last two million years. In the next twenty years, an attempt is made to remedy the situation, but it is too late: in 2050 global warming reaches three degrees, of which 2.4 are linked to emissions and 0.6 to the so-called "carbon feedback", the negative reaction of the planet to global warming.
The year 2050 represents the beginning of the end. Most of the terrestrial ecosystems collapse, from the Arctic to the Amazon to the coral reef. 35% of the earth's surface, where 55% of the world's population lives, is hit for at least 20 days a year by lethal heat waves. 30% of the earth's surface becomes arid: the Mediterranean, western Asia, the Middle East, interma Australia and the southwest of the United States become uninhabitable. A colossal water crisis affects about two billion people, while global agriculture implodes, with 20% collapsed crops and sky-high prices, leading to at least one billion "climate refugees". Wars and famines lead to a probable end of human activity as we understand it today.
Just a fictional novel? Unfortunately not: what we have read above is a well-documented scientific study by researchers from the Australian National Center for Climate Restoration, led by David Spratt and Ian Dunlop, from the sinister title “Existential climate-related security risk”.
The hypothesis of the study is that there are risks of global warming not calculated by the Paris Accords and capable of posing "existential risks" to human civilization. The climate change hypotheses outlined in 2015 by the Paris Agreements, equal to an increase of three degrees by 2100, do not take into account the "long term carbon feedback" mechanism with which the planet tends to amplify climate changes in the negative sense , thus leading to a further increase in temperature.
If we also consider the "carbon feedback", according to various sources, including scientists of the caliber of Yangyang Xu and Veerabhadran Ramanathan, there is a real risk of reaching three degrees of heating as early as 2050, which would rise to five degrees by 2100 The human civi would not have time to see them, since most scientists believe that a four-degree increase would destroy the world ecosystem bringing the end of civilization as we know it today. A dangerous slope in which, as Hans Joachim Schellnhuber of the Potsdam Institute notes, probably "the human species will somehow survive, but we will destroy everything we have built over the last two thousand years".
The real problem, the Australian study points out, is represented by some climatic "no-return thresholds" such as the destruction of the polar ice caps and the consequent rise in sea level. Very dangerous “thresholds of no return” which, once passed, would transform climate change into a non-linear event that would be difficult to predict with the tools currently available to science. After overcoming those "points of no return" global warming would also feed itself without human action, making any late attempt to eliminate emissions unnecessary. That of the end of human civilization is a minimal but not absent risk, underlines Ramanathan, who estimates it at 5% ("and who would take a plane knowing that it has a 5% chance of crashing?", Notes the scientist). It is today that we must act, the study concludes: tomorrow it may be too late.
TLDR: we're all gonna die by 2050