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Extremely menacing things
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United Kingdom rationale 
A woman working as a tour bus guide in Japan has tested positive for coronavirus for a second time, in what authorities have said is the first such case. The woman, who is in her 40s and a resident of Osaka in western Japan, tested positive on Wednesday after developing a sore throat and chest pains, the prefectural government said. She first tested positive on 29 January and was discharged from hospital after recovering on 1 February, before testing negative on 6 February. theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/27/japane..
2020-02-28 14:11
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#1
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Sweden Edmanis
So?
2020-02-28 14:11
52 replies
#2
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United Kingdom rationale
We have no cure for a very strange virus which has a ~8% mortality rate even for the people who have contacted it for the first time. What if it's akin to AIDS? Never really leaves your body and can strike later? It has a chance of wiping half of the Earth population.
2020-02-28 14:19
51 replies
please link me articles and data that show this virus have 8% death rate? It's more like 1% or less.
2020-02-28 14:15
39 replies
#4
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United Kingdom rationale
worldometers.info/coronavirus/ CLOSED CASES 39,726 Cases which had an outcome: 36,858 (93%) Recovered / Discharged 2,868 (7%) Deaths
2020-02-28 14:18
38 replies
that's not correct, when you calculate death rate of virus or disease you need to take all cases not just closed cases. So coronavirus death rate is less than 2% and most scientists says death rate will drop down and they estimate it will be around 1%.
2020-02-28 14:23
36 replies
You don't know all cases though, these stats don't account for all of the uncounted people who carry the virus. The death rate is STILL way higher than any influenza ever has had.
2020-02-28 14:26
21 replies
It's around 2% and it is in decline, so it will become even lower, SARS or MERS were 5 or 6 times more deadly than coronavirus.
2020-02-28 14:29
20 replies
But way less contagious. The problem isn't that it kills a lot of people, it's that it hospitalizes a lot of people despite it not killing them outright. That's the problem and that will continue being the problem until it either dies down on its own or is eradicated via vaccines. People die in China because they can't get the care they need from hospitals because they're overbooked.
2020-02-28 14:30
3 replies
things in China are starting to normalize, i agree it spreads fast, but when we will know more things about it this virus will go into the same category as flu.
2020-02-28 14:33
2 replies
Well maybe it will be categorized as one of the flu but this one is extremely deadly compared to the normal flu. It's just the flu LAWL 4Head that's why people are taking serious measures all over the world The normal flu sends massive amounts of people hospitalized right, right?
2020-02-28 14:35
1 reply
it actually does, when there is flu outbrake hospitals are full and closed for public.
2020-02-28 14:37
you've read the stat wrong, closed cases means that either they developed immunity (maybe) and defeated the virus in their body or it means that they died. All other cases are active, meaning the virus is still alive in their body, and they havent died yet.
2020-02-28 14:33
11 replies
mortality rate of it is around 2%. closed cases don't mean a lot because when virus is at his peak those numbers are way higher than they should be.
2020-02-28 14:36
10 replies
okay lets make an extreme example. Man gets infected with black plague in 1612, you observe it to be the black plague. You say since the man isnt dead, the black plague has a mortality rate of 0%. Is that what you're getting at?
2020-02-28 14:38
9 replies
no i am saying you can't calculate Mortality rate of virus when it is on its peak you need to include decline time also. Let me explain it to you, see when coronavirus was at its peak hospitals were full and many people died because they could not get medicine or help, but now when things are normalizing and hospitals have more space, recovery rate will increase and mortality rate will drop, so when you calculate Mortality rate you need to take this into consider otherwise your results will be off.
2020-02-28 14:48
3 replies
I think the 8% figure is also pretty far into the edge, if people didnt get treated for flu it would probably be pretty similar. I didnt read a lot of your other examples so I didnt know what your thinking was but I agree with it pretty much, though I havent seen any of the numbers of if corona is actually in decline in china.
2020-02-28 14:55
2 replies
That's nice, but now it started spreading in other countries and if it spreads in africa where they have pretty bad health system and it could get worse, but let's hope this doesn't happen.
2020-02-28 15:02
1 reply
+1 #45
2020-02-28 15:04
if noone else had the plague at that time except that 1 man yes the mortality rate would be 0%
2020-02-28 14:54
4 replies
point was that while he was still infected you say it has 0% mortality, not after he is immune. meaning you could say that, but he dies the next day anyway
2020-02-28 14:56
3 replies
i mean sure but we already have a decent estimate about covid19s mortality rate
2020-02-28 14:59
2 replies
From what I see it's a worse strain of flu pretty much, i dont think it will last much longer and I dont see it ever becoming an issue for any 1st world country's. It could be a problem though for 3rd world, that's where the mortality rate is going to matter IF it gets that bad for them
2020-02-28 15:02
1 reply
+1
2020-02-28 15:03
Even using the worldometer stats its at about a 3.3 percent mortality rate (of all cases not closed cases) and thats just cases we know of. I don't think it will end the world, it shouldn't be over-played. But it shouldn't be under-played either. People should be worried.
2020-02-28 15:14
3 replies
Not really, panicking or worrying about that is not worth it. It is still to small to worry about it, but we should take preventive actions to stop from spreading it.
2020-02-28 15:24
2 replies
I mean worrying in the way that it will cause people to make sure they're taking it seriously and take preventative action, not worried like scared to leave their house because of it.
2020-02-28 15:51
1 reply
oh ok then i agree with you
2020-02-28 18:56
#12
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United Kingdom rationale
"All" cases haven't been resolved. "Closed" cases have been resolved. Looks like you have problems with math and basic logic.
2020-02-28 14:26
13 replies
i see you don't know how to calculate Mortality rate of virus, but don't worry you will get it someday.
2020-02-28 14:29
12 replies
#27
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United Kingdom rationale
I know. You take the closed cases and calculate the ratio between the fatalities and all the cases and you get the rate. Also, you could maybe read this paper on SARS: academic.oup.com/aje/article/162/5/479/8..
2020-02-28 14:36
8 replies
Ok let me explain to you if you don't understand it. Closed cases is not good thing to base stats around, because when virus is at his peak those numbers will be pretty high and when it does start to decline numbers goes down a lot, so you would need like yearly data for closed cases because in that time in the data it would be included peak and decline time so you would get more accurate results. You see most people died because they could not get help because of hospitals were full, but now when things are normalizing and there is space in hospitals recovery rate will increase and death rate will drop.
2020-02-28 14:44
7 replies
#35
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United Kingdom rationale
> but now when things are normalizing and there is space in hospitals recovery rate will increase and death rate will drop The way I see it, it's all getting worse and we're now seeing the virus in countries with a very poor health care, like. e.g. Iran, Kuwait and others. gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb..
2020-02-28 14:49
6 replies
It is getting better in China when the outbreak was most severe. And it depends on other countries how serious they have taken it, if they are well prepared for it then they have nothing to fear about. And if they failed to do so it will be similar than in China it will have its peak and then when the country takes it serious it will be on decline.
2020-02-28 14:52
5 replies
#49
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United Kingdom rationale
Take it seriously? LMAO. Most countries don't even have the equipment to test for the virus.
2020-02-28 15:06
4 replies
In Africa maybe some, but others have.
2020-02-28 15:21
3 replies
#55
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United Kingdom rationale
In Russia there's nothing. A 150 million country which has multiple neighboring countries. translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=..
2020-02-28 15:59
2 replies
They still have the equipment to test for it, just if it happens in rural area most likely people won't even test for it
2020-02-28 18:57
1 reply
#58
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United Kingdom rationale
Have you read what the link is saying? There's nothing to be tested for the virus in Moscow. Not a single clinic, private or state, has anything at all.
2020-02-28 19:12
#32
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Poland kruky
Seriously you have problem with logic. For every disease mortality is determined by closed cases.
2020-02-28 14:44
2 replies
I see you are new to this, you can calculate Mortality rate of virus at its peak, you need data of virus at his peak and in his decline and then you need to consider both of this periods in calculation or your calculations will be off. When you will go to school you will learn about statistics.
2020-02-28 14:54
1 reply
#50
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Poland kruky
Yeah, I'm good at statistics. It's all about asked question. Asking how many people died of all people that were infected is enchanting reality, you assume that everyone currently infected will recover which we both know is a lie. Reality is that: 36,861 infected, 2,869 died, as for others, we will find out. >THIS DOESN'T MEAN THAT RATIO CAN'T CHANGE IN FUTURE
2020-02-28 15:12
Yes but percentage goes rapidly down with age.
2020-02-28 14:30
i think i have read that in usa they have found the vaccine for the virus and will be tested on humans in april
2020-02-28 14:18
10 replies
#6
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United Kingdom rationale
But do we have the time for it?
2020-02-28 14:18
8 replies
yes
2020-02-28 14:19
7 replies
#8
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United Kingdom rationale
Dunno. There are many very alarming signals. This woman, cases of people getting infection when there could have been no contact with an infected, etc. etc. etc.
2020-02-28 14:20
6 replies
you can get the virus trough air-blame the winds that carried the virus from china
2020-02-28 14:23
5 replies
#13
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United Kingdom rationale
The virus can survive just for 4 hours outside of human body. What you're writing is impossible.
2020-02-28 14:27
4 replies
maybe there were lots of infected ppl who dont tell anyone that they are infected and just spread the virus-ppl who were in wuhan went to japan etc
2020-02-28 14:31
3 replies
The problem with viruses is they're very basic. Being so basic means they evolve very fast, by the time a vaccine is created for one type of virus there are already several other types. This is the reason the flu never goes away, could be the same for corona but hopefully not
2020-02-28 14:35
2 replies
hopefully we will have ai that can solve this problem soon
2020-02-28 14:36
1 reply
Yes, Eventually machine learning algorithms may be discovered that can predict future changes and prevalent strains in viruses. It will take however a lot of data to perfect, medical communities are already able to predict the most common strains of flu each year to try optimise vaccines. I don't think corona will ever be too bad, as long as every country develops specific vaccines for their strains and china accepts help from outside
2020-02-28 14:42
#33
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United Kingdom rationale
On February 26, 2020, a top U.S. health official Dr. Anthony Fauci from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that it will take "at least a year to a year and a half at best" to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus
2020-02-28 14:46
why osaka. i love osaka
2020-02-28 14:31
Different strain or something
2020-02-28 14:31
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