TLDR; don't read and don't comment - this isn't for you.
This is part 2, part 1 is this link
it is just me opening up for discussion about top 30 teams at the moment and trying to do some sort of semi-analytical work.
I will be clear here: I do NOT set the rank. I use the RANK of HLTV from yesterday 2020-03-31.
The reason I do this as a 2nd part is because there has happened quite much since my first post (posted 2020-03-19) and I wanted to first revise some of my prior analyses, but then I saw I actually had it right from the start, just missed out on some dates in my mind.
There was also an idea I had to introduce the new teams that broke into top 30, but with a nearly dead CSGO scene nobody have broken in, so I decided to take the news from the past 13 days, the results of Flashpoint 1 and EPL, and just update my analysis.
I also think a weekly or bi-weekly series might help people to engage more in this, instead of just discussing in "old" threads.
This will most likely be a longer thread, since last one was just foundation and this is update on that, plus new analysis.
1) Na'Vi (point change +10) [points to #1 = 0]
Matches since last "report": BIG 0-2, forZe 2-1, CompLexity 2-1, Fnatic 2-0
Both good and bad performances, but the most alarming thing is the maps. They have lost on Dust2, Nuke and Inferno x2. These are the maps they usually pick into, so they need to be more confident in their own map pool.
They are too reliant on individual plays in important rounds. Almost all players have played good, but when we go into particular rounds both Boombl4 and Perfecto make mistakes that you shouldn't make if you play in the #1 team in the world.
They qualified for the next phase/stage which is great considering their opening to EPL s11. But I think they need to work a lot on their teamwork, protocol and strat book if they don't wanna embarass themselves there.
2) Astralis (+26) 
Won their EPL group quite convincingly even though there were some uncharacteristically mistakes on almost all maps they played.
Matches played: Godsent 2-0, ENCE 2-1, Sprit 2-0, Vitality 2-1. Lost on Inferno against ENCE and on Overpass against Vitality. Besides that they have stablized and I am just waiting for people to bring in Magisk into the consideration of best player of the year. Right now he looks like the best player in Astralis and the difference maker for them.
Their map pool has changed over 2019 and 2020, and with limited matches now we'll see if there will be some changes. It is a wide map pool, where they play all maps except Mirage. How deep is it though? We haven't seen them be really tested while being in form.
They will have a 6 man roster from july first, so don't expect any other roster changes before Rio Major in November. Zonic seems to stay. I will do more around their 6-man roster in the future
3) G2 (+35) 
Matches played: TyLoo 2-1, FaZe 2-1, OG 0-2, Virtus.Pro 2-0.
Seems like there have been some ways to counter G2's amazing play from Katowice. OG just said "this is our match, you pick maps and we will beat you on your ground", but did it with a team effort. This is where I see a huge weakness in G2, they might have defaults, strats, executes and be good at playing of eachother, but the fundamentals of the team is just skill while having AmanEk and JaCkz get into positions where they just have to do their job to set up the 3 star players.
I think their basics are great and got some deeper stuff, but still a bit tactically and strategically "shallow". But if maLeK and nexa get some time to work this through after the group stage and perhaps limit their map pool to 4 or 5 maps, instead of now 6, they could get better. Also: their "go-to" map Dust2 is their statistically worst map. That is a big alarm going off. You pick D2 over and over again, yet you win on the oponents maps and lose on your map pick. Will most likely get into decider match in EPL. If they get NiP, Vitality or forZe they should win and go to stage 2.
4) Mousesports (-8) 
Matches: FaZe 2-1, OG 1-2, Virtus.Pro 2-0, TyLoo 2-0. Winning 7 maps spread over 4 different maps. Really impressive. But their 3 map losses was on 3 different maps, and the two against OG was 10 round wins seen over 2 maps, of which both usually are strong maps for Mousesports. I heard some things about ChrisJ and Woxic having huge Ping issues, so perhaps not as alarming as it looked in the server. Rejin seems comfortable and calm, so I guess they're happy even though they should be the best team in their group.
They will most likely go to decider match. The match tomorrow against G2 will decide a lot, not just for EPL, but also for checking the map pool of both teams.
5) Fnatic (+12) 
Matches: CompLexity 2-0, North 2-1, forZe 2-1, Na'Vi 0-2. They have done something that is extremely uncharacteristic for this roster, this team and these players: Win quite simple (aurgably) to then drop off against a good oposition. Usually they put themselves on the level of their oponents. Perhaps it is the Samuelsson effect? Not sure what happened. Also picking into historical maps instead of doing what they're best at for the moment. Perhaps comfort and result isn't aligned yet.
Of their 4 lost maps, 3 were their own picks. The only one they lost on oponents pick was Na'Vi on Dust2, a Map that Fnatic never really look like a team.
They have some time now to revise their map picks, because if they keep on losing their own map picks they will have a really rough time this spring. What would happen if they need to force a roster change? Is there anyone in the world they could utilize? Lets hope that will never happen. I stand by that they need additions to their staff. There are rumblings about their communications is quite bad, which might be why they lose on their "comfortable" maps and win on the "rough" maps.
6) Liquid (-17) 
Matches: MIBR 2-0, Swole Patrol 0-2, 100 Thieves 2-0, Furia 1-2.
This is just awful. Pure awful. Their map pool is almost non-existant. Their match against EG is important or they might actually get eliminated in phase 1 of EPL. Both Nitr0 and Twistzz got below 1.0 in Rating2.0 during the EPL event. NAF have come to life though. But at the moment they just got players carrying them, and nothing looks like it should for the roster that 1 year ago was without a doubt the best one in the world.
With Zews being free as a coach and living in LA atm, I would say they should go for him as a coach or analyst. Just find a good way to utilize both Zews and AdreN together. But when it comes to roster changes, harsh gambles have to been taken soon. Because this isn't acceptable.
Ever since EPL was moved to online and divided into regional groups, this was Liquids time to shine and to prove that they are #1 in NA.
7) Evil Geniuses (-5) 
Matches: 100 Thieves 1-2, Swole Patrol 2-0
Too littles to analyse really. Done what could be expected of them. Tarik has seemed better than he was earlier this year, but I don't really see them get back to their form early fall 2019.
I have no idea how to improve this team, but at the moment they are just a stable top 10 team. Either they need to revise their playbook and map pool or they need to do something rash to improve. I don't seee this roster perform better than they do right now.
One of the absolute weakest map pools in the scene, not just for top teams, but for any team. They avoid Overpass and Mirage for understandable reasons, but they have 0% in 3 tries on Dust2 as well. That is 3 maps in 5 tries they got 0% win rate on. That is 43% of the map pool that you "can't" win on. Considering you can only ban 2 maps in a BO3, you will have to get at least one of these 3. The stats for the other maps isn't that impressive either. They can only coast by because they are in NA and their biggest rivals are in shmbles.
8) 100 Thieves (+16) 
Matches: Swole Patrol 2-1, Evil Geniuses 2-1, Liquid 0-2, MIBR 0-2
So a total of 4-6 in maps looks bad, especially if you consider the teams they played. But they got at least 12 rounds on each map they lost, and except losing two OT's it seems like they are a good late-game team. But most maps were close no matter what, that might be something we need to look into in the future. They have done a decent job at taking away weak maps in the matches they've played, but Mirage, which was one of their strong maps, is 1 loss in 1 try. That is weird. What happened really? I would speculate that the bench added in mid is the difference.
Currently working towards becomming the best NA team right now, and I expect them to go to the 2nd phase of EPL, even though they are in the risk of getting eliminated. The match against Furia will be important.
As I said in part 1: Kassad and AZK need to work hard to prove this team is more consistant and get back to more teamplay and not just ask JKS to win them rounds.
I have heard people talk and speculate in roster changes, but if they want Aussies that won't happen.
9) Vitality (+10) 
Matches: Spirit 1-2, NiP 2-0, Astralis 1-2
getting 4-4 in these matches isn't that good. Especially not when you see results on each map. They got a really weak map pool and some issues with the individual performances in the squad. Misutaa has showed he got potential, but for some reason he just seem like he got into the deepend too soon. 0-18 on a map against Spirit. If you can't get a kill onto Chopper or Mir for 21 rounds is just alarming.
apEX seem to have been decent enough as IGL, but they still seem shakey. With some luck in the decider matches they can proceed to phase 2, but it is hard to know for now. Thankfully for them they had 10 days between their last group match and their decider match. Rough part is that they won't know who they will meet until less than a day before the match, so anti-stratting will be hard. Perhaps good for them since they can revise what is good and what to avoid in their own team.
10) FaZe (-58) 
Matches: TyLoo 2-0, Mousesports 1-2, G2 1-2, Virtus.Pro 2-0
Quotes from part 1: "[...] sometimes they look headless and they clearly got some issues with mental stability within the server. Seems to be triggered by their own results." and "I got a small issue with their map pool. They don't even seem comfortable to get a solid map pool."
They have now been clear that their go-to map is Nuke and their 2nd map is Mirage... and on Nuke they choked 14-10 to 14-16 against G2. This is just what I talked about. Choke Clan will become a meme if they can't fix this, and did the same the day before on Train against Mousesports: climbing back to 14-14 and then dropping the map 14-16.
Even though they've been good/decent in EPL it looks like they will get eliminated from phase 1 of EPL before their last game is played. hltv.org/forums/threads/2271446/faze-cou..
In EPL they've played 10 maps, and no map more than twice. That is just appalling. They should revise their map pool. Start with playing Mirage and then find comfort in either Overpass or Inferno and then have the other and Nuke as "deciders" and perhaps see if a permaban on Train help them more than a permaban on Vertigo does. NiKo has been known to not adapt to updates (AUG per example).
I also wrote this on yNK as a coach: hltv.org/forums/threads/2270987/ynk
11) Furia (+16) 
Matches: Liquid 2-1, MIBR 2-1
only two matches, and won both 2-1 against teams most people consider "better" than them, so seems good. But they lost their own pick in both matches and that is something we need to think about.
During the 6 months they've played with this lineup they have permaban on Dust2, which I would've thought was a good map for them considering their player distribution. But I can accept they permaban one map. The weird thing is that they have only won twice in 9 tries on Train. Once against MIBR and once against ENCE. I would get rid of that map and add Dust2 instead. Sure, they've always had at least double digits on Train, but they need to learn how to close it out.
Last time they won on Vertigo was 26th of October. I can't see any strengths in their map pool nor any consistency.
But besides that I think the team seems stable in match series. So even if they drop maps they still win the matches.
Kscerato and Hen1 are top of the EPL NA stats, but you also find VINI and arT at the bottom and yuurih got 1.03 rating in EPL. So it is a polarized team when it comes to in-server performance.
Could get promoted to phase 2 in EPL NA today. Would be a great accomplishment.
12) NiP (+15) [-688]
Matches: Godsent 2-0, Vitality 0-2, ENCE 1-2
8 maps played distributed over 5 maps. Got a few "comfortable" maps and try to pick accordingly to the oponents weakness. But considering their rosterchanges and weird player distribution they should just lock in a few maps and play "comfortable" CSGO. Also: Reliant on anti-stratting and reading oponents as a team. What happens when they play a new roster like Vitality or a team without a strat book like ENCE? Oh, they lose! Who'd have thought? I would.
First team in top 29 that lost to ENCE in a 121 days. That is just a big red light blinking. WTAF? You can beat Astralis one day and lose to ENCE the next?
Sure, it is a team that still work on basics and protocols, but they should win against a team like ENCE. Just like Vitality, they got 10 days to work on their gameplay before the decider match, but since they try to play anti-strat against their oponents they will get disadvantage not knowing who they will meet until less than a day before the match.
13) MAD Lions (+10) 
Matches: Copenhagen Flames 2-1, c0ntact 2-0, HAVU 2-0, CHAOS 2-0
Only dropped one map (Dust2, pick of Flames) in 4 matches. Looks really great, especially when you think about how little time they've had to play with Acilion as IGL. But then you take a look and see that c0ntact got a standin, they lost to HAVU a few days before they 2nd game and CHOAS got standins and a new roster.
Seems to have decent map pool considering they won against 4 different teams on 4 different maps and done it quite convincingly. Their players look really good and in interviews you can see the confident they have in themselves and their project.
Their HAVU loss earlier this month is the only LAN match, so perhaps they have benefitted to play Online during this "honeymoon period".
14) CompLexity (+11)
Matches: Fnatic 0-2, BIG 2-1, Na'Vi 1-2, North 2-0
This is quie expected results. I am not yet sold on the BlameF as IGL and this continue. It just seems like they got decent defaults and really good players that try to work in tandem.
I can't wrap my head around their map picks.
Missed out on EPL phase 2 and decider matches. So they have lots of time to work on their gameplay.
According to Jason Lake Poison has been in a car accident but seems to be fine. He actually played a match same day as the accident. Perhaps they lost a lot by leaving Malta where they had a bootcamp house to play from home, because now they got RUSH and oBo in Malta, K0nfig and BlameF in Denmark and Poison in Bulgaria. But it was a request from the players.
15) OG (+24) 
Matches: TyLoo 2-0, Mousesports 2-1, G2 2-0
Amazing results and they grow into their EPL matches quite nicely. A lot of the issues we saw previously seems erased and they seem to really enjoy playing together. Tha map they lost was on Overtime so no need in being too mad at that dropped map.
We haven't really seen enough of their map pool, but what we've seen so far has been good. Will most likely be qualified for Phase 2 before their big match against FaZe.
Mantuu, NBK and valde got 1.23-1.26 rating so far in EPL. That is just sick. Mantuu is the questionmark and NBK and Valde are the pillars of the squad that doesn't really need to perform, and yet they do. ISSAA got 1.16 as well so there are no issues here. AleksiB got 0.96, but to be fair, he had some really rough games where he often died first through smokes or to fullly flashed enemies. This will most likely be fixed as soon as they feel comfortable in their teamplay. He also risk a lot to put his team in good spots.
16) Gen.G (-9) 
Matches: CHAOS 0-2, MIBR 0-2, DIG 2-0
Seems so weird, can win against decent tactical teams but lose to puggy teams or where the strats fail. It just is wrong for a Daps-lead team. The weird thing is that s0m and BnTeT, the two expected star players, are low in the rankings during Flashpoint 1. Autimatic and Koosta are the ones carrying, and those two are still quite quiet. I would say Koosta is playing close to his career peak, but Autimatic have been much better than this and yet he is now carrying.
If this team just gets the sum of its parts, and then add a bit of Daps to it, then it should be much better than this.
They've lost twice on Mirage and twice on Inferno. The two maps you should be able to rely on this team, yet they've won on Nuke and Train, two maps most pro players would say it is tougher for new teams to play.
This doesn't look like a daps team and the evolution they got is not in a direction I feel good.
17) GODSENT (-1) 
Matches: NiP 0-2, ENCE 2-1, Spirit 2-0.
Sure, they won the matches they were expected to and lost one that we can't expect them to win except on great days. But close match against the sinking ship ENCE? Something seems off. Good thing for them is that there shouldn't be any pressure, not from the ORG nor from external sources.
18) HEROIC (-9) 
Haven't played any matches since part 1.
Too much to say and yet too little to say at the same time. Deserves their own post. I got a youtube video in the pre-production state for this team, so not writing more about it.
But expect the org to let the contracts just run out
19) BIG (-3) 
Matches: Na'Vi 2-0, CompLexity 1-2, North 0-2, forZe 1-2.
Great win against Na'Vi but besides that they've looked weak. I was going to revise my analysis about them because they just recently got together, it is about 3 months now. But this is the time we should be able to see where they're going, and they got to the bottom of their group. They've played 60 maps together as a roster, and I can't really see them getting past this point of the ranking.
What can you do when the players do what they're supposed to but you still get no results? What do you do when they do this continuously after roster changes? I know people wanna see a full german roster here, but who can replace Xantares? Are there any approachable German players? I can only assume it is back to MDL for them.
20) Virtus.Pro (-7) 
Matches: FaZe 0-2, Mousesports 0-2, G2 0-2
Only won 3 maps in 20 tries during 2020. Just looks pure awful. There is nothing there. They changed IGL and no difference.
Most teams would drop but to at least show something when they change IGL. But this team just didn't change at all during the change.
The Manager of the team said he didn't want a roster change before the major. Now the Major is postponed to November. Does that mean AdreN and SANJI are on the chopping block? I think so. Because going from 2nd place in the world to this? Nah, it isn't acceptable at all. Go for any player that speaks russian. hltv.org/news/29162/dastan-if-things-don..
Considering the Org dropped a decent Polish roster for this one just makes it more understandable if they do something drastic.
21) forZe (+17)
Matches: North 2-0, Na'Vi 1-2, Fnatic 1-2, BIG 2-1
Not bad, almost good actually. Got a decider match for EPL and with some luck and some great work they can get into 2nd phase. I wonder what would happen if Jerry was removed. Would anyone of the players continue to perform? Hopefully we'll never have to experience that.
Considering their owner I expect this is the least they expect from this lineup.
A small pointer about them: almost no map they've played have been a run-over or a bulldozer. No matter if they win or lose, the maps are close. Strength and weakness in one.
22) ENCE (+5)
Matches: Astralis 1-2, Godsent 1-2, NiP 2-1
Congratulations on the first win in 1/3 of the year against a top 29 team in the world. FFS boys, at least try! Also nice of you to let Godsent not just get their first EPL round ever with this roster, but their first Match win as well.
Are you kidding me? This is the worst team I've seen play in top 30. They are the proof that HLTV ranking is broken AF.
Against top 30 teams they have played 66 maps and won 22... that is 1/3. Imagine you putting up a team that currently resides in 31-45 and let them play 60 maps against random top 30 teams. What do you think the results would be? To quote Michael Jordan "Just stop. Get help!"
23) North (+10) 
Matches: forZe 0-2, Fnatic 1-2, BIG 2-0, CompLexity 0-2
Out of the EPL group. It isn't totally bad, but it creates pressure on the roster. MSL is a great IGL and Aizy seems to be peaking. But where is Kjaerby? Younges Major MVP and he is playing like he is a normal mid tier mid-player. I actually think a big part of it being MSL's issue. You can utilize his skills much more than you do right now. CajunB and Gade are what they are. You can't really demand more of them, can you?
24) MIBR (+13)
Matches: ENVY 2-0, Gen.G 2-0, CHOAS 2-1, Liquid 0-2, Orgless 2-0, Furia 1-2, 100 Thieves 2-0
I could more or less just copy paste the analysis of ENCE here. First time in about 120 days they won against a top 30 team.
But then they did it again a few days later.
Zews left the team, unclear why, but his comments aobut it display the frustration a lot of fans and viewers have: Complex issues with the core players in this roster.
This is most likely the last Hurrah for Fer and FalleN. TACO have had his chance in Liquid so he most likely will get an NA offer. But what about Fer and FalleN if this doesn't work? It most likely will be some low tier Hail Mary project. So they need to get their shit together.
25) Spirit (+13) 
Matches: Vitality 2-1, Astralis 0-2, Godsent 2-0
Not bad. One good and otherwise nothing to Add. If the Godsent game had been 2 days earlier I think Spirit would've had a bigger chance, due to form and confidence.
I like that they got a quite young roster and some decent players. Magixx seems to be a potential star player for this tier of CSGO.
But how many years will we hear about SomeDieYoung before he blossoms?
I still maintain they either need a new IGL or some extra staff members to take the next step.
26) c0ntact (-34) 
Matches: HAVU 1-2, MAD Lions 0-2, FunPlus Phoenix (Bad News Bear) 2-1
Really bad results, but not too bad plays. Still under the issue that they got a stand-in. Even though the stand-in Rallen has been exceptionally good (he should be picked up the day c0ntact gets eliminated), their team play has suffered. Letn1 is far from the best player but this is where he excel. They miss him quite much.
Hopefully they'll manage to go to Flashpoint 1 playoffs and get enough boost to actully get back in form.
I am fairly certain their org is really disappointed so far, and considering Flashpoint 1 rules they should already have a list of potential players to bring in instead of almost anyone except EspiranTo. Expect them to do something the day ESL and Valve come with their new rules and qualifiers for Rio.
I can't even find them on Twitter. What an exceptionally poorly handled esports org.
27) Renegades (-9)
No Matches. So we'll see where their future is. I forgot to mention: almost 80% of their staff, seen over all esports, left simultaneously quite recently. If you don't know about this, don't google it unless you wanna hate the org.
28) Cloud9 (-5) 
Matches: DIG 2-0, Orgless 2-1, ENVY 1-2, Copenhagen Flames 2-0
Done quite well in Flashpoint one and seems to grow into their situation. Working hard to be good enough for the reputation C9 have. But unless they get far in the playoffs the org will most likely be disappointed.
29) HAVU (+5) 
Matches: c0ntact 2-1, MAD Lions 0-2, Copenhagen Flames 2-0, ENVY 2-0
I heard the Flashpoint talent say that HAVU has been one of the most assertive teams throughout Phase 1 and Phase 2, which I can agree with. They look solid. It is proper counterstrike where they win against "better" teams by just playing "how CSGO is supposed to be played". Nothing fancy, nothing extra, but they win and do it quite comfortably.
They had Sergej, AleksiB and OttoNd earierl in the org, so I believe they got the best scouting in Finland and will most likely have no issues replace anyone if they needed. sAw used to be coach for a while but went back being IGL. Perhaps that is something they'll look into in the future, trying to find a Finnish IGL seems near impossible.
Can sAw continue if HAVU continue their development?
30) TyLoo (+/-0) 
Matches: FaZe 0-2, OG 0-2, G2 1-2, Mousesports 0-2
1 map in 4 BO3s? They play from a gaming office in Kiev and can't do more against teams shattered across Europe? Nah, if this is the best we can see from them, they shouldn't be invited to any big events again.
Actually just invited because ViCi couldn't get to Europe in time.
Their match against VP is important. I don't get why an org would continue over and over again in an esports where they don't win.
How do they make money at all?
I didn't take Gen.G vs MIBR into consideration. It was Map 2 4-2 rounds when I posted this.
Might have missed stuff, but I'll bring it up in 1 or 2 weeks or in comments then.