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SMART MENS COME HERE)
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Syria LONE_8122 
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? pasted from wikipedia but i found this very interesting, try not to cheat if you want to genuinely test urself
2020-09-28 12:53
Topics are hidden when running Sport mode.
#1
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Czech Republic VetriX_
Not really?
2020-09-28 12:55
#2
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Syria LONE_8122
Why not really? im curious
2020-09-28 12:57
#57
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United Kingdom alcazar4
obviously you pick door 3 for the free pet goat
2020-09-28 17:53
Only Smart MENs please :)))
2020-09-28 20:32
lol was a easy statistics question in 7th grade. ofc you should switch
2020-09-28 17:54
#93
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Germany bowski23
Because i was tired of explaining, I wrote a simulation to show that the probability of winning while switching is 2/3 and while sticking with the first choice is 1/3. Use the window on the right side. The left side is the code. Link: jsfiddle.net/byp0mzvL/
2020-09-28 20:18
#103
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Czech Republic VetriX_
sorry my bad i didnt read it properly
2020-09-28 20:29
#3
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Germany bowski23
It is an advantage to change to No.2 because No.1 is only right if you choose the right one in the beginning (1/3 chance) but No.2 is right if you didn't choose the right one in the beginning (2/3) chance.
2020-09-28 13:00
#6
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Syria LONE_8122
good man ))
2020-09-28 13:02
So switching the door raises the probability to 66%?
2020-09-28 17:05
#46
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Denmark Y3kx
either that or 50%, either way your odds are better than beforehand
2020-09-28 17:19
#60
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Germany bowski23
it's 2/3 see my explanation. 50% is a fallacy that most humans are prone too. you can even simulate it, if you know programming, you will see that switching is indeed a chance of 66.666...% if you run it often enough
2020-09-28 17:59
It depends if the host open a losing door every time. It makes sense for him to do so for suspense purpose, but since it is not specified in OP we can't assume it off the bat. In this case it is 50/50 Otherwise, assuming, like you did (and is the initial problem if I remind correctly) he always opens a losing door, then you are right.
2020-09-28 18:26
#4
perk  | 
Finland eIe
Switching makes your odds bigger. I read this somewhere, don't remember where tho
2020-09-28 13:01
yeas i smart, u no smart
2020-09-28 13:01
#7
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Syria LONE_8122
mens((
2020-09-28 13:03
I can’t make sense from your post.
2020-09-28 13:03
#9
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Syria LONE_8122
Nehmen Sie an, Sie wären in einer Spielshow und hätten die Wahl zwischen drei Toren. Hinter einem der Tore ist ein Auto, hinter den anderen sind Ziegen. Sie wählen ein Tor, sagen wir, Tor Nummer 1, und der Showmaster, der weiß, was hinter den Toren ist, öffnet ein anderes Tor, sagen wir, Nummer 3, hinter dem eine Ziege steht. Er fragt Sie nun: ‚Möchten Sie das Tor Nummer 2?‘ Ist es von Vorteil, die Wahl des Tores zu ändern? In Deutsch fuer Ihnen )))
2020-09-28 13:05
Why would he open another door if I want to open door 1 ? Doesn’t make sense to me, never watched these shows I can only open 1 door or can I open multiple?
2020-09-28 13:08
#14
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Syria LONE_8122
You choose one door but do not open, and then the host opens another door YOU DIDNT PICK, which MUST reveal a goat. The host gives you a choice to A) stay with your original choice, or B) switch to the third door which you did not pick. Stay or switch? Why?
2020-09-28 13:09
That’s a guessing game, I would have to judge his body language, in which direction he looks the most and pick that door. Either way that’s a 50/50
2020-09-28 13:12
#18
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India FuseShot
strategy 1: dont switch- to win you must choose the car door in your first attempt P(W)=1/3. strategy 2:switch - to win you must choose one of the two goat doors(host wont reveal car door) P(W)=2/3. so switching will fetch you a greater chance of winning
2020-09-28 13:21
Wrong, if you know what is behind one of the doors it’s 50/50 because 2 doors left, it doesn’t matter what you picked when you had 3 options because now you have 2 doors left
2020-09-28 13:34
#26
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India FuseShot
That's exactly what the frame of the problem is supposed to do tunnel vision you into believing it wouldn't matter if you switch. Think of it this way if you decide I won't switch then you have 1/3 chance of the pick being correct, but if you decide you will switch then if you pick the correct door that is the only case in which you lose i.e. 1/3 and picking the other two doors(goats) will mean you win since you switch to car door since the host reveals the other incorrect door other than the one you chose. which gives you a probability of 2/3.
2020-09-28 16:34
This doesn't make sense. If I have three doors and I pick one and the guy opens another door, it doesn't matter if I switch, the percentage is still 50 If I choose one door out of 3 that's 1/3 but if he opens another door it's not 1/3 anymore, it's 1/2 and it doesn't matter if I switch the door because it would still be 1/2 After all this is just a guessing game, you can't really know for sure and switching wouldn't make any sense.
2020-09-28 17:48
#62
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Europe iamkillyou
idk how can you think anything else other than this i can somehow understand what he's saying but it's not really mathematically correct
2020-09-28 18:09
#72
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India FuseShot
If you dont understand the words that well have a look at this table and now see if it makes sense. it is proven. Its like an optical illusion people just dont want to believe their instinct could be wrong. See this table I found. It turns out that there are only nine different combinations of choices and outcomes. Therefore, I can just show them all to you and we calculate the percentage for each outcome. statisticsbyjim.com/fun/monty-hall-probl.. You Pick Prize Door Don’t Switch Switch 1 1 Win Lose 1 2 Lose Win 1 3 Lose Win 2 1 Lose Win 2 2 Win Lose 2 3 Lose Win 3 1 Lose Win 3 2 Lose Win 3 3 Win Lose 3 Wins (33%) 6 Wins (66%) this is what I was trying to say in words.
2020-09-28 18:25
#74
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India FuseShot
If you dont understand the words that well have a look at this table and now see if it makes sense. it is proven. Its like an optical illusion people just dont want to believe their instinct could be wrong. See this table I found. It turns out that there are only nine different combinations of choices and outcomes. Therefore, I can just show them all to you and we calculate the percentage for each outcome. You Pick Prize Door Don’t Switch Switch 1 1 Win Lose 1 2 Lose Win 1 3 Lose Win 2 1 Lose Win 2 2 Win Lose 2 3 Lose Win 3 1 Lose Win 3 2 Lose Win 3 3 Win Lose 3 Wins (33%) 6 Wins (66%) this is what I was trying to say in words.
2020-09-28 18:27
This is pointless, why did you include 3 doors ? At the end of the round you either have door A or door B, doesn't matter if you switch the percentage will be the same because 2 doors are left and it doesn't matter what your previous choice was, 1/3 doesn't exist anymore now it's only either 1/2 or 1/2. Percentage is very relative, you can win or lose either way, it doesn't make sense to switch.
2020-09-28 18:31
#79
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India FuseShot
because there are 3 doors. lets take the case that one switches- so you choose one of the goat door the host will open the other goat door(wont show you car door) for you so switching takes me to the car door in 2 out of the 3 cases where I choose the goat door initially. If I choose the car door though the host would reveal 1 of the 2 goat doors and switching results in defeat so there is 1/3 chance you lose and 2/3 you win when you switch. the other case that one doesn't switch it would simply be 1/3 since once sticks to his/her initial choice which is a 1/3.
2020-09-28 18:33
But it's not our case. We choose one door and hosts opens another. Now we have 2 doors and we have to make our choice again. When 2 doors are left it's 50/50 either way, our previous choice doesn't matter because we don't have 3 doors anymore and we know that we have 2 doors left, one with goat and one with car. It doesn't matter what we did in a previous round anymore.
2020-09-28 18:36
#85
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India FuseShot
But which one will the host open think about that restriction and read my post again.
2020-09-28 18:39
The host opens one randomly ? I'm tired of this, stupid show and stupid idea. It's a guessing game.
2020-09-28 18:41
#87
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India FuseShot
no he doesn't pick it randomly. he wont reveal the door with car so if the two that you have not chosen are both goats he open one randomly and if 1 is car then he opens the goat one use this information to solve the problem. f you don't understand my explanation read this maybe it helps f you don't understand my explanation read this maybe it helps statisticsbyjim.com/fun/monty-hall-probl..
2020-09-28 18:44
#88
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India FuseShot
and no its isn't a stupid question. Its proven too using simulations.
2020-09-28 18:45
#91
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Germany bowski23
because i'm tired of explaining I wrote a simulation: jsfiddle.net/byp0mzvL/
2020-09-28 20:17
No idea what at this, doesn't make sense to me. Anyway that's a 50/50 guessing game, there is no such thing as more chance of winning when switching, it's not logical.
2020-09-28 20:11
#96
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Germany bowski23
it's pure logic to switch. check out the white part on the right side and ignore the rest if you dont know code. run the simulation. check slow mode if you want to see each individual step.
2020-09-28 20:18
This is pure luck, it's possible that from 50/50 choice once wins more than other.
2020-09-28 20:20
#80
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India FuseShot
The point you are missing/not using is the that the host knows which is the door with prize.
2020-09-28 18:34
Ok so ? He knows but I don't, does he tell me where it is ? No.
2020-09-28 18:37
#81
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India FuseShot
if you don't understand my explanation read this maybe it helps statisticsbyjim.com/fun/monty-hall-probl..
2020-09-28 18:36
#61
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Europe iamkillyou
this makes no fucking sense 1) 3 doors means 33% on each door you choose 1 and it can be the car it can be goats, he then opens the 3rd 2) 2 doors remaining, odds go from the 3rd equally divided to the 2 other doors so like that the 2 doors go both 50% so it's all a gamble of which door is correct tldr; 3rd door says absolutely nothing other than you've got 2 doors left with 50% odds each
2020-09-28 18:04
Question isnt to find the car out of the 2 remaining, it's the expected value of changing door . So it's not 50/50 The answer is that you only have 1/3 chances to win by not changing door : the situation where you chose the door with the car in the first place. And you winn 2/3 times by changing, if you chose a door with a goat.
2020-09-28 18:16
#75
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India FuseShot
lets take the case that one switches- so you choose one of the goat door the host will open the other goat door(wont show you car door) for you so switching takes me to the car door in 2 out of the 3 cases where I choose the goat door initially. If I choose the car door though the host would reveal 1 of the 2 goat doors and switching results in defeat so there is 1/3 chance you lose and 2/3 you win when you switch. the other case that one doesn't switch it would simply be 1/3 since once sticks to his/her initial choice which is a 1/3.
2020-09-28 18:28
nah i get the problem now, i've researched myself the thing is that your explanation is not the best but it makes sense now after figuring it out myself
2020-09-28 20:28
#105
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India FuseShot
yeah maybe I tried anyway!!
2020-09-28 20:46
#76
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India FuseShot
it is a standard problem called Monte Hall btw.
2020-09-28 18:29
No. Let's look a all the possibilities. You initially pick door n°1 And he reveals a goat in another door What possibilities: Car is behind door n°1 = stay best Car is behind door n°2, he opens the n°3 = change best Car is behind door n°3, he opens the n°2 = change best That's not 50/50 since the host do not open randomly.
2020-09-28 18:31
Its 50/50 /closed
2020-09-28 13:05
#27
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India FuseShot
strategy 1: dont switch- to win you must choose the car door in your first attempt P(W)=1/3. strategy 2:switch - to win you must choose one of the two goat doors(host wont reveal car door) P(W)=2/3. so switching will fetch you a greater chance of winning
2020-09-28 16:37
No.
2020-09-28 16:38
#31
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India FuseShot
Its a standard problem in probability.
2020-09-28 16:41
If you pick door 1 and the moderator opens 3 (or any goat door) there are 2 possible doors for the car: your door (1) or the other (2), so its a 50/50 chance...
2020-09-28 16:45
#35
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India FuseShot
You need to consider two cases my friend case1 or strategy 1 you will switch case 2 or strat 2 you wont switch do this and would understand. Also you can search the problem(monte hall) for better explanation when you do such problem you need to go case by case(atleast thats what I do).
2020-09-28 16:52
but you know that this solution isnt even proven, right? The event of opening door 3 cant be ignored, thats why you cant say that staying has a 1/3 chance, just because it was in the beginning. That would be the same as saying that a football teams chance of winning, before the match and after they are up 2-0 at half time is equal...
2020-09-28 17:01
#64
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Germany bowski23
Its not the same as the football one. It's as simple as he FuseShot stated it. You have to choose the right one in the beginning while not switching to win the car. It's 1/3. probability vs 2/3. For switching you have to choose the wrong one in the beginning(2/3).
2020-09-28 18:06
The event of revealing a Goat can't be ignored... That's exactly the reason why it's not 50/50
2020-09-28 18:18
#92
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Germany bowski23
2020-09-28 20:08
#36
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India FuseShot
see if this convinces you lets take the case that one switches- so you choose one of the goat door the host will open the other goat door(wont show you car door) for you so switching takes me to the car door in 2 out of the 3 cases where I choose the goat door initially. If I choose the car door though the host would reveal 1 of the 2 goat doors and switching results in defeat so there is 1/3 chance you lose and 2/3 you win when you switch. the other case that one doesn't switch it would simply be 1/3 since once sticks to his/her initial choice which is a 1/3.
2020-09-28 17:00
like I said in #37 you are using probabilites from BEFORE door 3 was opened, you have to consider this event...
2020-09-28 17:03
#43
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India FuseShot
it is proven. Its like an optical illusion people just dont want to believe their instinct could be wrong. See this table I found. It turns out that there are only nine different combinations of choices and outcomes. Therefore, I can just show them all to you and we calculate the percentage for each outcome. statisticsbyjim.com/fun/monty-hall-probl.. You Pick Prize Door Don’t Switch Switch 1 1 Win Lose 1 2 Lose Win 1 3 Lose Win 2 1 Lose Win 2 2 Win Lose 2 3 Lose Win 3 1 Lose Win 3 2 Lose Win 3 3 Win Lose 3 Wins (33%) 6 Wins (66%) this is what I was trying to say in words. statisticsbyjim.com/fun/monty-hall-probl..
2020-09-28 17:18
Im gonna write a small c# programm to simulate it, brb
2020-09-28 17:19
#45
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India FuseShot
yeah do it or if you would care to read that small webpage its written clearly that computer simulations already have proved it
2020-09-28 17:20
#48
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India FuseShot
If you ever get the time please read "labelling" in first few pages of any good probability book/material might help if you are having problems understanding such problems.
2020-09-28 17:25
i go home with the goats i dont care
2020-09-28 13:06
Don't monty hall me
2020-09-28 13:07
Fucking monty hall
2020-09-28 17:37
+1 More like fucking paradox
2020-09-28 18:11
if it wasnt in the movies 90% of people here wouldnt even know it exists
2020-09-28 18:19
It was a topic during probability lessons in 8th or 9th grade, quite common for teachers to go through it in math at some point
2020-09-28 19:13
You probably have different curiculum in germany probably because these kinds of probability are thought in highschool here and monty hall wasnt mentioned.
2020-09-28 20:56
Yeah, curriculum is also different in every German state, so it might be only here. It's not all the relevant for a high schooler to know about this anyway.
2020-09-28 21:00
Yeah like math behind the probability was highschool stuff i know that for sure.
2020-09-28 21:08
Well yeah of course, If you switch it increases your chances of winning from 1/3 to 2/3.
2020-09-28 13:13
#17
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Poland aiken
Yes, always change your gate choice. If you change you have 50% of winning if you don't you preserve 33.3333% chance from the initial pick. edit: sorry, I wasn't right about 50%, it's even better to change the gate
2020-09-28 13:25
#19
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Germany Booya
This has nothing to do with smart, only with having an information (about the mathematical problem and the story behind it, it was 100 times in TV Shows) because noone in this thread will calculate the stochastics behind the Problem without ever heared of it. de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ziegenproblem#Antw..
2020-09-28 13:28
#20
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Poland Hanse
As much as I was always good with riddles, especially these "mathematical", I never fully understood this one. Isn't opportunity of changing your gate basicaly second take on initial choice with limited initial options, making it 50-50?
2020-09-28 13:43
#28
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India FuseShot
this might help strategy 1: dont switch- to win you must choose the car door in your first attempt P(W)=1/3. strategy 2:switch - to win you must choose one of the two goat doors(host wont reveal car door) P(W)=2/3. so switching will fetch you a greater chance of winning
2020-09-28 16:37
#22
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Germany NotJuan
Smart mens))( dont find themselves on those kinds of situations
2020-09-28 13:35
I would stick to the first one bcs odds are the same and its likely that the host is trying to bait me
2020-09-28 13:46
#30
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India FuseShot
strategy 1: dont switch- to win you must choose the car door in your first attempt P(W)=1/3. strategy 2:switch - to win you must choose one of the two goat doors(host wont reveal car door) P(W)=2/3. so switching will fetch you a greater chance of winning
2020-09-28 16:39
I think it is a paradox: At the first round you have 1/2 chance to win (you will lose, or you will get the prize) and 3 options. So it doesen't matter what you chooae. after losing an option you have 1/2 chance to win again.
2020-09-28 20:48
i meant both of this and your saying are true so it's a paradox.
2020-09-28 21:07
switching gives you higher odds
2020-09-28 13:50
lol
2020-09-28 13:52
#32
Bymas | 
Lithuania a2kas
it is Monty Hall paradox
2020-09-28 16:42
Idk, I'll probably just will go with door #1
2020-09-28 16:49
The Monty Hall problem is not a sound game, the mathmatics behind it is fine but the assumptions are unrealistic in the context in which they are set. You are therefore not able to use the standard tools of probability theory. How do you know the host will always open a door? will he open the door you have chosen? how does he pick which door to choose? will he always pick the door with the goat or is it randomly selected which one he chooses?
2020-09-28 17:11
#49
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Syria LONE_8122
the rules are set out as far as im concerned - host opens a door that you didn't choose and reveals a goat. - you can stay or switch imo, quite straightforward
2020-09-28 17:28
Yes... for a simple minded moron such as yourself i'd imagine it would be quite straightforward. Problem is there's more to the problem than what your tiny mind can comprehend.
2020-09-29 14:45
#114
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Syria LONE_8122
"How do you know the host will always open a door? will he open the door you have chosen?" 0/8, i think you're the moron here buddy 😎
2020-09-29 14:53
this is older then coaches exploiting bugs
2020-09-28 17:12
this is literally a scene from the blackjack movie 21 about the MIT kids counting cards
2020-09-28 17:13
+1 LMAO exactly what I thought
2020-09-28 17:23
aint this thing in a netflix movie about counting cards?
2020-09-28 17:31
#51
 | 
Spain hopolapa
Take the goat, then sell milk and cheese to buy a car. goat=profit
2020-09-28 17:31
+1 then ya also have a new bestfriend
2020-09-28 17:32
#55
rain | 
Japan dayyum
there's no reason to change ur choice. at least i wouldn't.
2020-09-28 17:49
idk mens((((
2020-09-28 17:52
my mom actually was on very similiar scenario, she was asked to change thing, she said no i dont wanna change and won biggest prize because not changing anything.
2020-09-28 17:58
That's still mathematically wrong because you have only 1/3 chances to win without changing
2020-09-28 18:09
a W is a W
2020-09-28 20:26
You have to change to door 2 to have the biggest chances to win, WHEN THE PROBLEM IS POSED THAT WAY.
2020-09-28 18:08
idk, I would choose the door 2 then
2020-09-28 18:11
#71
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Ecuador Ageless
No it is not good to switch. Monty Hall's car gameshow
2020-09-28 18:22
like what #3 said: better odds if you change to #2, since #1 is only right if it was correct to begin with, giving you a 1/3 chance. picking door #2 will give you a 2/3 chance of being right if you didn’t choose the right one in the beginning
2020-09-28 18:38
i found this question stupid
2020-09-28 18:46
switching makes the odds better
2020-09-28 20:11
#97
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Norway FaZe_eZaF
switching the odds give u a 66% chance of getting the car because at the initial guess u had 33% chance to pick the right one and 66% chance to get a goat, so if you switch you get 66% chance to pick the car and 33% to get the goat very simple math really, but many people forget that the probability changes because of the number of variables that decreases
2020-09-28 20:16
#98
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United States frauden
im not smart man, i say maybe
2020-09-28 20:17
the easiest way by far to see why this happens is seeing it with 100 doors youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0 if you have a 1/100 chance at the start, you are most likely not going to pick the right door, so when the guy shows you all the wrong doors besides 1 other door, it's obviously more likely it's going to be the other door
2020-09-28 20:22
Boring question, many ppl with english as their 2nd language probably didn't even understand/read it properly at first....
2020-09-28 21:03
If there were 100 doors; 99 with goats and 1 with a car and you pick any door, when the host removes 98 other 'goat doors' to give you 2 doors left; your initial pick and the other door- switching would give you a 99% chance of getting the car.
2020-09-28 21:15
I would switch to the revealed goat door and sell it to a Turkish Muhammad.
2020-09-29 15:03
Ok you have one goat, it doesn’t matter whether you get the goat or not but if you get the goat you make a goat farm, if you get the car then sell it and by a prize goat. Then breed them all and make millions.
2020-09-29 15:07
switching increases your odds. sound unintuitive but its true. its a simple probability calculation
2020-09-29 15:12
Chiefs
2.56
AVANT
1.48
MBAPPEEK
1.27
MAJESTY
3.76
Astralis
1.02
MIBR
13.00
Bet value
Amount of money to be placed
Winning
Odds total ratio
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