Shall I place £10k bet on Biden? Odds are 1/2 and Biden looking to have a stronger lead in the polls than Hillary had. £5k would be nice. I just think it was so close last time but an upset is looking less likely from Trump this time. A lot of younger voters coming out this time who are more likely Democrat supporters. What you guys think?
They gave her that chance of winning based of polling numbers.
Obviously you have to account for the shy right wing vote that isn't captured in all polling (seen in Brexit, 2015 UK election, Trump 2016) Where the polls were skewed in the left's favour.
It looks like Biden's polling better than the favorite in any of those 3 huge upsets though.
I think the more divisive it's become you're right that there could be even more shy Trump voters this time. Trump's made a massive fool of himself with his dealing with covid and some of the non scientific wacky stuff he's said. That would have put off many people. I need to study the polling in the Important swing States before putting down that much TBH.
Yea I understood the 'shy Tory vote' in 2015 the 'shy Brexiteer vote' in 2016, and the 'shy Trump vote' in 2016.
But they were all polling close enough that those 'shy voters' swung it. Biden is polling quite far ahead ATM.
The “quiet majority” is a myth. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and still won the election. It’s simply not how the voting system in the US works. You can never know for sure who is winning even if the polls show some impressive numbers. You have to also understand that any polls are quite faulty, which is why the “shy” thing works for the UK as well.
Don't bet anything unless you’re sure you can take the L and go on with life without trouble. It’s really anyones election at this point
Trump lost the popular vote in 2016
If this US only elected people just because of the popular vote than democrats would win all the time
states like new york and california are never going to turn red and they together have something like 17% of the US population
That didn't seem to be a problem for anyone back when republicans were winning every election based on popular vote with ease just 20 years ago.
I bet democrats also cried that “we are never going to win ;(((( these states will aways stay red”
Fair enough, and I did get the point. Sorry for bully men
Just thought your comment was kind of funny since exactly 20 years ago the republicans won while the democrats had the popular vote, just like 2016.
in the beginning of 2020 i have seen such line on russian bookmaker : WHO (world health organization) would announce the end of COVID-19 pandemic before June, Y or NO ( odds were like 2.2 and 1.7) rofl
in theory, at rates of 1 to 2, you absolutely should. However, remember to take into account the risk involved (risk=chance of bad thing happening*how bad the bad thing is) so if you don't have 10k to gamble with, don't.