I think about the viewing experience you're taking too much into account the knowledge you've developed from playing it (Not intentional).
I just feel like Valorant is adding more things to the variables CS already has, making it harder to spectate as a casual. Obviously, the more you watch the more you'll understand, but I think CS's success will always be his simplicity. The only really "hard" thing to understand in order to enjoy it as a casual is the economic system. Hltv pretty much proves that understanding gameplans, utility, roles, etc. is meaningless to follow the game.
About Valorant player base potential. Thats why I said, "right now". Obviously, the longer the game lasts, the more new talent that will come out. But I think Lol and Valorant's situation are different.
- Lol success came up as being the first big f2p game focused on competitive gameplay. Valorant doesn't have that factor since f2p is pretty standart now days, especially for any type PC of shooter game.
- When LoL came out free, not many of the people it attracted knew what a Moba was or that something like Dota existed. Even more, many Lol players were console-only players, so that was the first time they really played on PC People do know what CS it's still being played a ton (fewer people they can actually capture). Also, Valorant will have to deal with Overwatch 2. Will the players that migrate stick with it after the release? Or will they go back to Blizzards game?
- Last but not least, Dota never had an eSport structure to compete against Lol. They've decided to do so this year... when they pretty much would be better just doing a close league with the teams that will play the major (because they're so far apart from the semiprofessional teams that are filling those regional leagues...).
CS:GO and Valorant will play in the same field since Valve now really is trying to structure the eSport aspect of their game.
Those are the reasons why I can't be certain about how big Valorant will eventually get. But I'm positive CS isn't decreasing any time soon.
People thought R6S and then OW would end CS, but I think even with the online era, CS as an eSport is stronger than ever.
Time will tell. But I'm certain CS:GO won't g