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AMA Simulation of NA RMR results
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Brazil cauby 
Hello guys, I needed to distract myself so I did a statistical simulation of the results of NA RMR. In the beginning I did just for the brazilian teams, but it was half way of the full RMR, so I finished the job. If you want to know any scenario for your team to qualify for the major(Only NA RMR), post here. Also, I kind spent a lot of time here, so I was thinking in creating a twitter page to post the results of all RMR, because it was a funny distraction. P.S: I don't have the % because i'm waiting for the release of the bracket, it will affect many possible results.
2021-09-20 20:32
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do this with EU
2021-09-20 20:33
4 replies
#4
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Brazil cauby
EU has a lot of teams, if more people ask, I can do it.
2021-09-20 20:55
#61
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Brazil cauby
Hello uk guy, i'll be posting EU and CIS stats at weekend on this page twitter page: @csgo_statistic
2021-09-21 19:08
2 replies
#72
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Argentina WaSTe_D
Nice thx
2021-09-21 20:22
thank you
2021-09-21 20:57
#2
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Canada Femtal
Extra salt
2021-09-20 20:33
23 replies
#3
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Brazil cauby
This is the placement at IEM fall and what happens at the NA RMR. 1st Place: They will play at the Major. If Furia finish 4+ they have legends spot regards of othes team. If Furia finish 4-, they need that Liquid or Extremum finish 6+ 2nd Place: They play will play at the Major. Legends scenario dependes a lot. If Pain or 00 Nation or EG finish first place, they need Furia 5+ and Liquid and Extremum finish 6+. For challengers they need the same as above, but only one team( Furia, Liquid or Extremum) finish 6+. Contenders the others teams results don't matter. 3rd Place: For legends they need a lot of results --> They need 4 teams to finnish with less points and happens when Liquid, Extremum, Furia finish 6+, or 00Nation, EG, Pain finish 4+ For challengers is the same scenario, but they need only 3 teams instead of 4. Contenders, also the same, but now they need 2 teams instead of 3. 4th Place: It's the exact same scenario as 3rd place, they need one more team in each part. 5th Place: For a more realist scenario I need IEM to release the bracket, but for now. They can play at the major if 2 of these teams finish 6+ ( Extremum, Liquid, EG, Pain, 00 Nation, Furia) 6th Place. No points= No Major Hell, this was hard, all my notes and data are in portuguese, and I can't just put all in google to translate, I used STATA and Excell to do it.
2021-09-20 20:54
22 replies
it matters to a lot of people, myself included. ES are one of the last remaining good NA teams, we need this, thank you brazilian friend
2021-09-20 21:14
11 replies
#14
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Brazil cauby
You are welcome, it was very funny to do it. I can imagine a lot of fans that want see their team playing at majors.
2021-09-20 21:27
#49
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Russia CYETA
NA team with 2 SA player and a mexican
2021-09-21 00:35
9 replies
"and a mexican" lol EU geography
2021-09-21 00:38
4 replies
#52
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Russia CYETA
? I'm more than aware that Mexico is NA, but they aren't much different from SA countries culturally. I realize it's not a continent, but central america would be the right term
2021-09-21 00:48
3 replies
#90
ropz | 
United States Goob
reading only the first bit made me think you didn’t know about central america lol, and who uses SA as south africa not south america
2021-10-06 00:45
2 replies
#92
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Russia CYETA
oh well, the short for South Africa is ZA, my point still stands
2021-10-06 01:12
1 reply
#94
ropz | 
United States Goob
yeah, there are no full NA rosters anymore, at least any good ones.
2021-10-06 01:15
#51
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Brazil cauby
For a second I thought SA as South America, than remember that this also stands for South Africa. Well, they have 3 NA players, so is NA team. Liquid only has Fallen and brazilians say that they are a brazilian team.
2021-09-21 00:44
3 replies
#53
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Russia CYETA
about fallen, isnt its a meme in Brazil? Like when they say gambit e Brazil, hobbit e Brazil, complexity e Brazil etc?
2021-09-21 00:47
2 replies
#54
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Brazil cauby
For Liquid no, a lot of brazilian fans watch Liquid just because of Fallen. For Astralis, Na'vi, Gambit or even Nip we say that they are Brazil, because they are international brands and have a lot of fans here, the same as say that Real Madrid is Brazil because we like then.
2021-09-21 00:49
1 reply
#55
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Russia CYETA
ah kkkk, ty
2021-09-21 00:51
#23
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United States Rayduh
You are one of the best user for doing this
2021-09-20 21:43
1 reply
#31
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Brazil cauby
You can thank my Master's application test that I will do at Wednesday. I'm studying for it for like 3 months without stop, it's about social science but for ecological economics, so my mind was very tilted with social and nature things, I need to press reset in my brain. That's why I went to the world of numbers and for a few hours forget about the pressure of the test.
2021-09-20 22:12
#43
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Brazil cauby
*Small correction: If Extra Salt 5th they have the cotenders slot. My filtration was bugged and every scenario had duplicate at 5th places.
2021-09-20 22:47
You miss one point. Since ES gets (in any relevant scenario) one of the five pointed slots, only 4 teams can be on points beside them. Meaning that by getting to points, they are going to the major, because at least 2 of 6 teams will be without points. Same is true for all the NA teams.
2021-09-20 23:51
4 replies
#48
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Brazil cauby
I did this correction in #43 I had some duplicated, that would show as not going to major in a lot of scenarios with 5th places. It mostly happend when more than 4 times would have more points, and just won't show that the 5 majors slots were full. But anyway thanks for reading all the text, and pointing the mistake.
2021-09-21 00:28
3 replies
Np, I think you did great work. I sadly also think that the rmr system is so broken. And that I find it curious why so few people are talking about it.
2021-09-21 21:46
2 replies
#79
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Brazil cauby
I did a lot of test runs, and just looking by numbers I kind of have mixed feelings about this system. Pros: Last RMR even a team with 0 points can make it to Majors, this is good, because a team in his peak will be able to play. Cons: There are 5 slots, so more than 5 teams should be able to get points. Also only 2/3 tournaments are bad, like in SA where Mibr can play the Major even if they finish 4th place.
2021-09-21 22:12
1 reply
Couldn't agree more.
2021-09-21 22:35
Cant wait for ES stickers:)
2021-09-21 19:15
1 reply
#70
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Brazil cauby
With the release of the bracket their life became easier. If they finish First or Second in Group A, they are already in, regards of any other result. If they finish third on the group and win the match for 5th place they also are in. If you like and want another stats i'll be posting on my twitter page @csgo_statistic
2021-09-21 19:37
#5
OK | 
Peru TheJuan
So 00nation won everytime right?
2021-09-20 20:56
2 replies
#6
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Brazil cauby
If they finish 1st,2nd or even 3rd they are in, regards of other teams. 4th place they need to start to pray for 2 teams. 5th place they have to buy a church and also pray for 2 teams 6th place F Major. Don't know if you are trolling, if you want I put with more details the results and "If" to qualify for the Major
2021-09-20 21:00
1 reply
#44
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Brazil cauby
*Small correction: If 00Nation 5th they have the cotenders slot. My filtration was bugged and every scenario had duplicate at 5th places.
2021-09-20 22:47
#7
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Brazil cauby
I forgot to mention, but Brazil can take all the slots. it's very unlike, but it can happens.
2021-09-20 21:08
6 replies
Will happen
2021-09-20 21:09
4 replies
#11
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Brazil cauby
I'm a die hard brazilian fan, but just look at this. 1st/2nd/3rd/4th must be 4 teams of Team One/Godsent/ Furia/ 00Nation/ Pain 5th must be one these Furia/00Nation/Pain. C'mon this is very unlike, and if we look at old brackets, they like to stack most of the brazilian teams in one side.
2021-09-20 21:14
#71
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Brazil cauby
With the release the bracket, the dream is over =/.
2021-09-21 20:21
2 replies
#73
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Argentina WaSTe_D
Yeah but how many br teams could still make it? Maybe 3?
2021-09-21 20:32
1 reply
#75
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Brazil cauby
4 Teams, but it all ends in the group stage + the match for 5th place. Group A Pain and another team to playoffs, the third place doesn't matter. Group B 1st and 2nd Place --> Godsent/Team One/ Furia/ 00Nation 3rd Place --> Only, Furia or 00Nation. Playoffs + 5th place. 5th --> The brazilian team must win, so we will have Furia/ 00Nation as 5th place. 1st to 4th place the others teams, the other will only affect the status, like legends, challengers.
2021-09-21 20:41
VAMOS
2021-09-20 21:11
What is the possibility for a team with 0 points
2021-09-20 21:10
2 replies
#13
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Brazil cauby
1st place: 4 teams with points finish 6+, or 3 team with points and BNB finish 5th place 2nd place: Here it gets funny, because if another team with 0 points is fighting for the 1st place one of these may not play at the major 4 teams with points finish 6+, or 5 team 6+ and a team with 0 points as 1st place. 3rd place 4teams with point finish 6+. 5 team 6+ and a team with 0 points as 1st place. Or, 6 teams 6+ and two teams with 0 points finish first and seccond place. 4th place --> Without bracket I can't give a real result, but with raw data this can happen. 4teams with point finish 6+. 5 team 6+ and a team with 0 points as 1st place. Or, 6 teams 6+ and two teams with 0 points finish first and seccond place. Or 7 teams 6+ and 3 teams without points finish as 1st/2nd/3rd place. 5th F Major for that team, but as the others simulations showed us, one other 3 teams with 0 points and go with better result.
2021-09-20 21:24
1 reply
#46
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Brazil cauby
*Small correction: If 5th they can have the slot, but only if Extremum places 4-. My filtration was bugged and every scenario had duplicate at 5th places.
2021-09-20 23:21
#15
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Greece RedWinter
godsent
2021-09-20 21:30
6 replies
#16
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Brazil cauby
GODSENT starts with 0 points. #13 works for then, and Triumph/ Team one/ ATK that also have 0 points.
2021-09-20 21:32
5 replies
#17
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Greece RedWinter
ty, maybe it changes when the groups are announced
2021-09-20 21:33
4 replies
#18
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Brazil cauby
It will change a lot. Unfortunately will only make it harder for GODSENT, I really want to see TACO and felps playing at the major. I started to simulate random groups, but it was giving very strange results, so I stopped and used the raw data without bracket selection.
2021-09-20 21:36
3 replies
#20
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Greece RedWinter
Depends on how they're seeded, if it's by RMR rankings then GODSENT is fucked (will need to beat Furia, Liquid and 00nation) but if it's based on ESL Ranking they'll be better off
2021-09-20 21:40
1 reply
#29
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Brazil cauby
I tried to simulate with a bracket using the model of ESL Pro League Season 14. If we just look points without knowing the power of teams, they have a very small window to qualify. Because right of the groups 6 teams are down, and if 3 of these are teams without points their only salvation will be BNB finishing 5th otherwise the are already out of majors.
2021-09-20 22:04
Yeah, but hopefully if there’s a Rio major in 2022 like ESL has very tentatively planned they can be there
2021-09-21 06:21
Furia needs an 5th place to secure challengers rigth?
2021-09-20 21:38
1 reply
#25
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Brazil cauby
5th they only secure Contenders regards of teams, for challengers they need some small combinations. There multiplus scenarios here. I will put 2 as exemples. 1: 1st Extremum, 2nd Liquid, 3rd EG, 4th any team, 5th Furia. 2: 1st Pain, 2nd Liquid, 3th 00Nation, 4th Extra Salt, 5th Furia.
2021-09-20 21:45
Why was my other account from 2015 banned for 10 years?
2021-09-20 21:41
2 replies
#27
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Brazil cauby
How would I have the answer for that?
2021-09-20 21:51
1 reply
You say ask me anything idiot
2021-09-23 23:32
Extreme moms
2021-09-20 21:42
4 replies
#28
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Brazil cauby
Legends: They can finish until 4th place. Challengers: They secure if finish 5th place. 6th place = no major for the boyz.
2021-09-20 21:56
3 replies
#30
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Greece RedWinter
can't they make the major if the 5th place team is someone with 0 points?
2021-09-20 22:08
1 reply
#37
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Brazil cauby
Yes, my bad. They have 5 more point than a 5th place of a team without points. I think that I was looking of the groups simulation. =/ Thanks for the correction.
2021-09-20 22:21
Ty
2021-09-20 22:13
#24
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United States Rayduh
Liquid needs 4+ to secure legends right?
2021-09-20 21:44
1 reply
#26
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Brazil cauby
Yes. 1-4 to Legends. 5th to Challlengers regards of other team, but is still very likely to go as Legends, because EG and 00Nation only get more points if they finish as first place. So a scenario of: 1st Furia, 2nd 00Nation, 3rd Extra Salt, 4th EG, 5th Liquid. They go as Legend.
2021-09-20 21:50
EG
2021-09-20 22:13
1 reply
#42
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Brazil cauby
This is the placement at IEM fall and what happens at the NA RMR. 1st Place Legends --> Furia finish 3+ place. Or Liquid, Extremum finish 5+ Challengers --> No one can took their place. 2nd Place Legends --> They 2 teams in these conditions: (00Nation/ Extra Salt= 1 team) finish 3+, Furia 4+, Liquid, Extremum 6+ Challengers --> If 00 Nation neither Extra salt finish 1st they are in. Contenders --> No one can took their place 83rd Place Legends --> There a few scenarios, but their options are 4 teams in these condiotions: Pain 2+, 00Nation 3+. Extra Salt 3+, Furia 4+, Extremum, Liquid 6+ Challengers --> The same as above, but they need only 3 teams. Contenders --> No one can took their place 4th Place Is almost like the scenario of 3rd place, but now they need one more position in every team. Contenders --> No one can took their place 5th Place Also like the 4th and 3rd place. Only 4 of these teams can finish above then --> Liquid, Extremum, 00Nation, Extra Salt, Furia. Or 3 teams, if Pain finish 4+. Contenders --> No one can took their place
2021-09-20 22:44
where is the proof of simulation?
2021-09-20 22:14
7 replies
#35
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Brazil cauby
I can send the .rar data of STATA and Excell with full datas.
2021-09-20 22:20
6 replies
.rar? uh oh. oh no. oh no no no, oh gods. mcafee can't protect me from this
2021-09-20 22:20
5 replies
#38
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Brazil cauby
There a lot of results, I don't know if a solid a block of any of the archieve will be enough. If you really want another way of proof I can send as image with the print of your team, the text is in portuguese, but you can compare placement + numbers of points.
2021-09-20 22:23
4 replies
ok you proved your point now do RBG
2021-09-20 22:24
3 replies
#40
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Brazil cauby
RBG won't play at RMR
2021-09-20 22:25
2 replies
wtf do them
2021-09-20 22:25
1 reply
#45
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Brazil cauby
You can look #13 it would be the same thing as if they had qualify.
2021-09-20 22:56
High effort post, have a bump friend
2021-09-21 07:31
Is there even a chance ATK can technically qualify?
2021-09-21 07:32
2 replies
#67
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Brazil cauby
Yes, they can qualify. The ideal scenario is. Group A The group has their as 1st or 2nd and the other team doesn't matter. Third BNB. Group B Don't affect then. The target is --> They finish first, any team 2nd/3rd/4th and BNB win the match for 5th place The not ideal scenario but also possible is. The group has their as 1st or 2nd and the other team doesn't matter. Third BNB Group B First place on GODSENT/Triumph/Team One. Second and third place any team. The target is --> 1st place the team of Group A, ATk 2nd. 3rd/4th/5th at least need to be one of these GODSENT/Triumph/Team One. There is also a scenario where they finish third in the IEM Fall, but is just as the other, the only thing that changes is that 4th and 5th place needs to 2 of these teams GODSENT/Triumph/Team One. If you like follow me at twitter @csgo_statistic
2021-09-21 19:26
1 reply
Will follow gj mens))
2021-09-21 20:40
#59
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Denmark valt3rr
Extremum?
2021-09-21 07:46
1 reply
#60
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Brazil cauby
Until 5th place they garantee a slot, also they are the only team that can qualify without making points. For this happens, they need that any of these teams finish in 5th place:Team One, GODSENT, ATK, Triumph. Also, I got a nice feedback in this topic, so I decided to creat a twitter page, if you want to follow, in the weekend i'll be posting EU/CIS stats and odds for the major. @csgo_statistic
2021-09-21 19:08
holy shit this is amazing, i'll be waiting for your eu/cis one
2021-09-21 19:11
1 reply
#63
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Brazil cauby
I'll be posting these until the weekend on the twitter page that i created today(Few minutes ago) @csgo_statistic Also, I'll post on hltv when I have done, because the guys from the forum were very nice with the feedback, they deserve it!!
2021-09-21 19:13
are you going to recalculate with the released brackets?
2021-09-21 19:14
1 reply
#66
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Brazil cauby
Doing these right now, that's why I created a page on twitter. I can push foward and say F to Brazil taking over all the 5 slot of the RMR.
2021-09-21 19:19
#68
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Europe Nuskel
s h o w u s EU :)
2021-09-21 19:27
2 replies
#69
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Brazil cauby
I first did for Brazil, than build up for NA, the next will be EU/CIS I'll be posting these until the weekend on the twitter page that i created today(Few minutes ago) @csgo_statistic Also, I'll post on hltv when I have done, because the guys from the forum were very nice with the feedback, they deserve it!!
2021-09-21 19:28
1 reply
great to hear mens)
2021-09-21 20:47
I'm too lazy to read, but it would be impossible for us to know whether or not we're living in a simulation.
2021-09-21 22:14
4 replies
#81
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Brazil cauby
I live in Brazil, there is no way a simulation is cool like this.
2021-09-21 22:28
3 replies
Which city bro, I come meet you.
2021-09-21 22:29
2 replies
#83
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Brazil cauby
I live in Campinas -SP But from time to time I go to Dourados - MS.
2021-09-21 22:30
1 reply
Aight, let's meet up in Campinas. You can show me around, we can go to a bar, maybe go for a swim.
2021-09-21 22:32
#86
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Brazil cauby
Just an update, i was very hyped about the feedback and pushed to do EU. I'm 1/3 done, and please someone remove this numbers from me. God dammit, 24 teams playing, points for until the 11th place. Even when I break for 4 groups it's way more raw data than NA. My computer will explode, i'm doing mostly in excell, because the ammount of scenarios the STATA started to lag (Wish I was in my university to run the data in thier pc). Latter I'll try to manipulate on R to see if is faster.
2021-09-21 22:51
#87
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Brazil cauby
Hello, it's me again another update 80% of EU is made. I have some spicy scenarios, also I won't be able to post all the scenarios for each team like I did with NA, because it's a lot of scenarios, way more than NA. I'm thinking in some other way to post more scenarios, like using images or other things.
2021-09-23 16:24
#89
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Brazil cauby
Hello people from NA, hyped with this NA Dreamhack final? A did a quick mirrored groups scenario for Extra Salt and Godsent. twitter.com/csgo_statistic/status/144231..
2021-09-27 04:14
#91
OK | 
Brazil okemas
interesting
2021-10-06 00:49
Just wanted to say thanks for your take on Astralis. You said they had it in their own hands, and they did.
2021-10-06 01:14
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