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pgl major analysis
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Russia blameF_biggest_fan 
i put all teams in 4 categories: real contenders (40% chance to win), possible contenders (40% too but more teams in pool), theoretical contenders (19%) and not-contenders (1%) TL;DR: just look at the final list ( i.imgur.com/C0XK5mK.png ) REAL CONTENDERS: 1) NAVI they have convincing lan experience and the most recent wins at international events (cis rmr's aren't telling too much cos of regional derbies and many inconsequential games). but, their recent wins against top teams were kinda narrow so their domination could possibly fall apart navi winning chance: 40% POSSIBLE CONTENDERS: 1) Gambit, Heroic clearly an s-tier teams in online era. their raw gameplan and preparement are enough to win against any team but can they do it in crowded arena? 2) Vitality they were preparing for it and after epl 14, we can say they are ready to play any t1 team. but they have kyojin. he's clearly not a t1 player yet, he does a lot of costly mistakes and makes this team even more inconsistent. if only they had nivera... 3) NIP they showed exceptional form at rmr, even lnz wasn't dragging them down. but that was just 1 tournament and most of t1 teams had nothing to play for so it was just not enough to call them main favorites of the major "possible contenders" winning chance: 40% (10% each team) THEORETICAL CONTENDERS: 1) ENCE sick individuals, decent teamplay, positive atmosphere. 1 inconsequential grand-final. there's a world where they upset 2) G2 g2 is good for deep runs but horrible for winning things. they'll need a lot of pure luck to win 3) FaZe, Liquid those teams are desperate to win and they will do their best. but even their best is not enough, they'll have to go nuclear 4) Astralis despite shaky results, roster changes etc, they just can win because they are astralis 5) BIG tactically good, individually not good enough (tizian, k1to, gade are not consistent). could win with huge ammount of luck 6) MOUZ some flashpoint 3 vibes and acor dropping 1 kd would give them a slight chance 7) VP last dance for this lineup, they could win with luck just like any other team in the category 8) Furia those 4 players are on their prime, and drop seems to be a good fit. who knows.. "theoretical contenders" winning chance: 19% (2.1% each team) NOT CONTENDERS: movistar, cph flames, spirit, entropiq, godsent, pain, eg, rng, sharks, tyloo "not-conteders" winning chance: 1% if you've read it all you're legend
2021-10-16 11:24
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WINNERS: Astralis reason: just cus
2021-10-16 11:25
1 reply
that's a legit reason for astralis tbh. they are just astralis, they can do it anyway
2021-10-16 11:28
#2
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Georgia Megobari
Horoshiy analiz, molodec
2021-10-16 11:26
1 reply
spasibo
2021-10-16 11:29
Last time I had a feeling about astralis they won starladder major and destroyed liquid and NRG in semis and quarter finals, I have the same feeling now unfortunately
2021-10-16 11:28
Complexity will do great
2021-10-16 11:28
1 reply
Yeah every match 0-16 😅
2021-10-16 13:12
#6
pwny | 
Netherlands PawnyCS
teams in the playoffs: navi, gambit, heroic, astralis, nip, vitality, liquid, faze/g2
2021-10-16 11:29
1 reply
would be the most competitive major in history if so. but some favorites will definitely choke
2021-10-16 11:31
navi : major chokers, 3 lost finals is a record, they arent winning heroic: pretty mediocre lately, nothing peoplle should be afraid of vira : not a single event won in 2021, zero consistency throughout any event, can vs rhe best then lost to the worst that only leaves the clear and obvious winner of this major GAMBIT
2021-10-16 11:29
2 replies
if they win they would be the best newcomers of all times
2021-10-16 11:58
1 reply
#14
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Indonesia begalracer
for the majority, Gambit's nickname will change from onliners to fluke
2021-10-16 12:02
Let's hope Astralis will manage to win this title whatever it takes
2021-10-16 11:30
"furia: those 4 players are on their prime" bro theyve only played against shitters, as soon as they play against any top8 team, they will lose
2021-10-16 11:30
1 reply
that's why they aren't "real" or "possible" contenders in my book.
2021-10-16 12:00
Heroic and Gambit online results make them suddenly favorites? 😃
2021-10-16 12:07
1 reply
only actual favorite is navi i think heroic and gambit could beat navi on paper but we'll see if they can adapt to lan
2021-10-16 15:28
G2, TL AND FaZe are more likely to win the major than Heroic and Gambit for obvious reasons
2021-10-16 15:32
FaZe will win PGL major 2021 case close thread closed , locked key thrown in marina trench.
2021-10-16 15:35
Maybe predict who will win AFTER, we get to the actual major and not major qualifier d-_-b
2021-10-16 15:48
I don't think Astralis can win without a superstar awper and Lucky just isn't it. In this era if you don't have a star awper you don't stand a chance. Only 3 teams have a realistic chance of winning in my opinion. NaVi, Gambit (shaky because of young team) and NIP (also young roster but Device and REZ are monsters, their success depends on LNZ).
2021-10-16 15:50
i love you
2021-10-16 15:51
it gonna be good only if navi, liquid get out packed
2021-10-16 15:59
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