Heroic 3-0 isnt the best shout. The reason is that theyre extremely likely to beat TyLoo first round, but what this means is that theyre very likely to make it out of groups, so you wanna take Heroic to advance, but not to 3-0, since 3-0 is a gamble, and To Advance isnt a gamble, so its stupid to gamble on a team that is *guaranteed* to advance.
After Heroic beats Tyloo they can easily run into a good 2nd round opponent and there goes the 3-0 prediction, but still great chances to advance.
Now, if you took Heroic 3-0, you will now have already lost your 3-0 prediction, and now if u took lets say Ence to advance and they lose first round to Godsent, then Ence can run into Astralis, Spirit, Faze, Big, Flames, etc. depending on who loses, and then it isnt unlikely they also lose that game and are in a dire situation. Then, you will have lost 2 predictions very early on already. This isnt a good spot to be in.
The point is, Heroic is safe to advance but 3-0 is still a huge gamble, but there are many teams that are in jeopardy to advance. Its not good to gamble a safe option when theres so many jeopardy spots.
3-0: ENCE (because I rather take teams that I think will advance To Advance rather than taking them to 3-0)
0-3: Pain gaming (going away from the obvious Tyloo/Sharks picks, just because Pain will lose to VP in the first match and then they can run in to very good teams in the 2nd match and then they are 0-3 just 1 away from being 0-3d, there are other good teams that will be 0-2 that Pain can face)
Im not going to get all of these predictions correct. No way. But im giving myself the best odds of getting 5 correct this way. Im playing the odds. Sharks, Tyloo, Renegades, Pain could all advance at the same time, you cant predict that, but the point is its extremely unlikely theoretically to happen, so to bet on whats unlikely to happen is extremely silly.
But yes, upsets will happen, as they always do, and not only is the chance of upsets a problem, its also a problem the randomness of who you play, you could run into insane teams in the 2nd round or very light opponents. Its all about playing the maths and the odds.