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How to strategically bet
Yugoslavia ScoutGOD 
TL:DR - Follow any up and coming teams that seem to show some prospect and analyse their odds and wins so you can bet more strategically to win more. The case study I am going to be using in this scenario is TEAM BLINK. During the first quarter of 2020, they were a top 100 team with 3 FPL players and 1 FPLC player. They grinded their way through ESEA leagues to reach premier quite easily. Along the way, I saw that given the analysts had clear asymmetrical information regarding which team was more likely to win, the odds blink were consistently getting were 2x+ multiplers . But Blink was still beating the favoured teams consistently and their odds still did not change. Analysts failed to capture the fact that this UNKNOWN team was able to beat teams that had been together for longer. In addition, the analysts failed to capture the talent of individual players and therefore underestimated them in the odds. Blink maintained a +70% win rate during their span of going from ESEA advanced to Premier. Even event organisers did not invite them until recently. Overall, if you want your bets to be more successful look at the ESEA leagues (Main and above). Identify teams that do not have a strong organisation to get invited into tournaments shown in HLTV. Look at individual players and check if they are in any FPL hubs or high-level domestic hubs in faceit. Then from this look at the team as a whole and their motivations. Do they post any videos? Do the players stream? Are they winning games consisntently? How badly are they losing their games? It will require some dedication to keep your eye on them. Then ask yourself is this a team that is worthy to do what it takes to reach a decent rank in the top100. Once you've done this dedication you can have a clearer imagine of their competition and how likely they are to win in games. But also you will have a variety of teams that can have prospect so you are not limited to one team. Then once you feel confident in their ability you can start placing bets. At this moment I am not prepared to full release the ways in you can maximise profits since that is something I keep to myself. Looking at Blink now, they have finally reached the Top 30 rank and are on the HLTV front page. They are getting invited into more tournaments where they are facing opposition with good organisation. Also everyone knows that tier 2 csgo has some of the best odds in CS atm, and the comeback odds are something stupid. Let me know what you think and thank you for reading :DD
2021-12-01 17:43
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tldr?
2021-12-01 17:44
6 replies
tldr - dont bet, you will inevitably lose everything
2021-12-01 17:44
2 replies
If you don't bet then you shouldn't of read it :D
2021-12-01 17:55
+1
2021-12-02 01:25
don't bet
2021-12-01 17:44
#6
NiKo | 
Seychelles PawnyCS
TL:DR - Follow any up and coming teams that seem to show some prospect and analyse their odds and wins so you can bet more strategically to win more.
2021-12-01 17:48
#8
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Germany Sonnabend
all in VP
2021-12-01 17:49
I don't bet but the number 1 rule is Don't be for Na'vi, don't bet against Na'vi....
2021-12-01 17:45
3 replies
#7
BanKs | 
Europe Pts
No, that's VP
2021-12-01 17:48
2 replies
#10
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Germany Sonnabend
any CIS
2021-12-01 17:49
1 reply
Except.... No, you're right.
2021-12-01 17:58
But seriously tho, it sounds like a good strat to me for some huge winnings. Like imagine if someone bet on Gambit winning Katowice because they followed the lineup and their progress?
2021-12-01 17:47
2 replies
All I can say is that if I did the same thing with Gambit, granted they had one of the better organisation when they were in ESEA I could have made a hell of a lot more money :D
2021-12-01 17:56
1 reply
Hindsight's always 20/20 :D
2021-12-01 17:57
i bet fulltime and no u dont rly approach it like this. if a team is heavy underdog and upsets once bookmakers will adjust accordingly, you're not going to be able to bet on blink 5+ times on their come up at value underdog odds. just doesn't work like that
2021-12-01 17:49
5 replies
As I said I'm not willing to discuss the ways in which I bet and the amount I bet on. But this has made me so much money. For my investment in time and knowing that the analysts who determine these odds are systematic and do not have more information than me it was a pleasure to exploit it.
2021-12-01 17:55
4 replies
analysts do not make odds, its all model based there's no bias in the odd making.
2021-12-01 18:00
3 replies
The model made by analysts. This does not have anything to do with fair provability in order to determine bias. Bias is determined initially at what the first set of odds are way before the map is picked and still do not change until rounds are played in the game. Therefore the way this model is calibrated in CSGO is prone to exploits since there is a clear asymmetry in information between this model and the betters who trust their decision. If the game is 14-10, but the winning side have a shit economy that if they get beat they double eco. The odds will still be 1.1 for current winning side, +3 for current losing side (hypothetical odds). But it will only take the losing team 2 significant rounds to come back and if they do the team that was winning then has to eco for last round and the odds see a big variance in changes. That's why it's so exploitable. *The point I'm making is that when a game has multiple pivotal points that can change odd predictions there is no way a model nor analyst can quantify them in real-time or circumstantially. It will take something far way complex to determine this, but if you have information that this team plays well late mid-round and they are consistent with their performance with it then it's a bet I would be more than willing to take.
2021-12-01 18:08
2 replies
ye ngl i read through this twice and have no clue what point ur tryna make still
2021-12-01 18:09
1 reply
Algorithm bad for important situations therefore can produce inflated odds that can qualitatively favour the underdog.
2021-12-01 18:15
#16
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CIS elefiveS
good job. fvk the bookies
2021-12-01 17:58
1 reply
It's not the bookies it's the analysts that determine the odds for the bookies. They have systematic methods to do it and because of it you can exploit it so easily. If there were more regulations on the ways you can bet in CSGO then this would be harder but as of right now it's something to exploit.
2021-12-01 18:01
idk all in on ence lol
2021-12-01 18:00
Hmmm i disagree all the tier 2-tier 4 players are same skill wise its how good their team chemistry is what makes them win games and climb hltv ranks and not individual skill maybe 1WIN is the only team that wins cuz of individual skill cuz deko is above other players for sure
2021-12-01 18:05
1 reply
These were just factors that odds did not consider, but they did consider your concept on team chemistry and longevity. Therefore to me it seemed as if they valued team chemistry over skill, but in this case study Blink were able to beat teams with a long-standing chemistry due to their individual skill. In tier 2 it's just choreographed pugs with a special round here and there, you need heavy hitters to make the difference.
2021-12-01 18:13
Give me your monies I will manage them good strategy
2021-12-01 18:07
My strat: All win on FaZe or Astralis (and now All win on Dupreeh team)
2021-12-01 18:17
arbitrage, but they will ban your account
2021-12-01 20:01
1 reply
Yes, there have been instances of this happening and it's quite sad but as an overall concept I think this is pretty solid.
2021-12-02 01:16
Step 1: bet on the winning team Step 2: profit
2021-12-01 20:02
i agree
2021-12-01 20:06
how to bet for tomorrow: -bet 4Glory to win their own map pick vs anarkez&co (odds should be 3.5+) -bet ttc +1.5 in funspark vs k23 -bet AURA 2-0 vs Tranquillium(3 odd) -sAw youngsters v Ambush both teams win their own map pick -bet Tricked to win vs Fiend(4.5 odd)
2021-12-02 01:23
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