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by year 2057 unless something catastrophic happens we'll be around 10,038,881,262 humans in the world, probably way more since all predictions models have been incorrect.
from what i expect, we'll hit 10bln much much sooner since these statistics dont take count of way too many variables like poor people making more children, people not caring about condoms, national census being wildly incorrect etc
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_p..
It does take that in account since those variables are roughly linked to living standards which are connected to other things
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no, no they don't, we went up from 7 to 8bln in just 10 years, they keep saying it will slow down
its not slowing down
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It will slow down, a prediction is still a prediction
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go check the predictions they made in the last years
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Yeah you think they don’t take economic development in account?
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does it even matter? people won't stop making children anyway, fertility rates going down in 1st world countries get thrown out of the window when u start counting immigration
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We where talking about the world. Not developed world?
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the entire world
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Yeah it will go down within this century
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source: dude trust me
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We can all make predictions right???
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predicting is different from coping
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Coping?
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yes
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Oh in that way, I mean yeah end of the world, idc not gonna change it, with the economic development I think it will overal be a net minus at the end unless Africa takes longer to develop
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the predictions have been wrong for years so far, they are clearly not that good at predicting and they dont take all variables into account. They always assume that 3rd world countries will be more developed than they end up being which makes the predictions wrong, and you are probably more correct to bet that the current estimates will be wrong, judging by the previous ones success.
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Yeah you just summed up what we said in the last 20 messages))
Definitely worth a watch if you are interested in the subject:
youtu.be/FACK2knC08E
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the flaw in this take is that they dont take global warming into account, yes more wealthy people have less children so they say that the goal is to get people out of poverty, but guess what, people will pollute way more and global warming will be worse. Which will cause a lot of climate refugees.
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We discussed this above, look at the stats for developed countries, it has to do with the transition model. When countries start developing it ends up going down, reasons are that you simply need less children to care for you in the future or liberation of womans, also less chance that children die
Ultimately the development is believed to be slowing down primarily due to the increasing development in China and the drastic development in India. The wealthier a country is (On average) the fewer children they also have, in some very wealthy countries they have less kids every year then the amount that die every year. The same can also be said about womens rights, the more rights the women have = less time to stay home and take care of the children. The world as a whole has been massively increasing women's rights/women's role so that again will complicate the graph.
Besides that, china and India allown fill roughly 30% of current births and India is nearly 20% of that. Both have massive economic growth and drastic increase in women's role. If we see massive decreases in birth in these countries well then the world will change.
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It also include religion
More religious more child check israel for example
strongly agree .. they have 0 idia whatthey are talking about .. they jsutsay somethink to get the sweet sweet money .... but in let´s face it ... the poor people that have most chieldren will never slow down coz they make money of making children .... think before you predict .. but ofc they can´´ say that
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and from 7 to 8 in just 10~ years
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keen observation skills from you pal. good work sniffing out that discrepancy!
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there's no border control
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You have to control ur borders first lmao
so?
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dont worry brother me and you dead soon
leading minds of this generation like elon musk suggest that humanity won't be faced with overpopulation, rather underpopulation in the future. rapidly decreasing birth rates, more and more people dying each year to preventable things like heart disease, diabetes and stuff like murders, car accidents, pollution in the air causing lung problems. the more people there are, the worse and higher all of those numbers get. wouldn't surprise me if by 2050 birthrate was just about making up for people dying each year with the population not going up or down at the 8-9 billion area. of course, I'm nobody and only know so much, but u never know
The Population Bomb was a book written in 1968, which predicted mass famine and starvation within the next 20 years. The global population at that time was around 3.5 billion.
The global population has close to doubled over the last 50 or so years, and yet almost certainly a smaller proportion of the world's people live in absolute poverty (when the World Bank first calculated this number in 1981 it was around 41%, and it's about 10% now), and the world in general is richer and fatter than ever.
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and the planet is in the worst shape its ever been in because of it.
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I’m not saying that’s a good thing, just saying that predictions of mass starvation evidently did not come true
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the fear isnt really mass starvations, its what we will have to do to the planet to maintain the populations, its also not sustainable in the long term.
xD fatter than ever
scary... rip mother earth
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Switching to renewables will actually increase our energy security, but using AI won't help us when birth rates are falling below replacement levels and the number of over-65s overtakes the number of under-18s
Overpopulation is caused by longer life expectancy rather than high birth rates
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How "Switching to renewables will actually increase our energy security"? Explain it, please. Wind and solar farms are inefective (dont know much about water tbh). Only efective way is nuclear power right now. Plus solar and wind farms have so many disadvantages like killing thousands of birds every year, short service life, toxic waste and higher polution during creation and dismantle process. Plus it makes enviroment ugly, which is not the case with nuclear power plants, cuz you dont need that much space to generate much more electricity.
Renewable energy, although necessary to prevent climate change, will actually decrease energy security, as it comes from natural phenomena which can't be controlled (apart from hydroelectric energy) making the availability of electricity fluctuate during the day and during the seasons. On the contrary fossil fuel energy can be created on demand, problem is it kills our planet.
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I thought about it a bit during brunch and robotics probably will be necessary too. Because we have to somehow increase manpower without forcing people to work untils 70s or even 80s. Or change the pension system and go back to times when families took care of their older ones by themselves. Othervise we will end badly.
And no. Killing older people or babies is shit idea :D
It is a regional thing. In my country Austria we have a low fertility rate. This means most of our people are old. In most West African countries for example they have a very high fertility rate. This means there are a lot of you people. This will become more of a regional and migration problem.
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People expecting Nigeria to reach billion and pass china before 2100
How will western countries get affected by the overpopulation in Africa, Asia? Is there an explanation for that?
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what happens when u leave a cup under a water tap? it spills same with overpopulation why do u think u see way more chinks n hindus more than any other race?
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There is no overpopulation in most western countries tho. There is some immigration going on because of low birth rates, but west is still fairly populated.
It is why investing in real estate is a pretty safe bet. Though with regards to something catastrophic, better not invest in anything build near sea level and it also pays to look at climate forecasts.
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true, buying a house next year if all goes well
wish me luck
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Good luck.
Owning brings it own challenges, but there is also much joy.
It's actually not. Its only matter of time when people that cant afford to buy a house become pissed enough that some kind of communist party will gain so much support, take over the country (or EU, its enough) and nationalize property of middle class and wealthy people. Plus in modern Europe there is definitely not lack of political parties that are close to communist ideologies.
Even without help of modern communits there is no chance that price of housing will grow infinitely. It will crash like in China and we will be all screwed, because it will probably lead to change of political system.
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Wrong, wrong...
There is no real reasons to see something a like a revolution that stops people owning property, in fact I'd say the very though is just nuts.
The concept of people owning where they live and some also owning more than that, be it commercial buildings or housing, has been thing for millennia and on average the value always goes up. It is also nothing new that there are those which do not have the means to own, only not only are they a minority it is a shrinking minority in many countries so no one to revolt - besides when was there ever a revolt which did much more than change who is in power, it is always just someone replacing those that was in power not everybody sharing the power.
As for China, they have a sick system which means some projects with no real value are allowed to run and run until there is a crash. Capitalism has plenty of faults, but not the king that is seen in China.
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But there is very high probability that after revolution someone with communist ideas will come out on top. And with nowadays political situation in EU, I wouldnt be surprised if EU even support goverment like this.
I dont think we live in capitalism anymore. At least not in our country and EU. There is so much regulations, that are somehow avoided just by biggest corporations. And as we could see in Berlin last year, people can get pissed off by these corporations to extend that they vote for expropriation of real estate. And its actually scary.
Btw when someone starts to adress this problem, he will probably do it trough highering the taxes. Which is actually something that EU wants to do with "unecological" houses. That will probably, sooner or later, crash the market, if they will not borrow another money from future to keep it going.
On the other hand, I see the trend, especially in media, that they try to reteach us that owning a property is actually bad and living in rent is a future to go for. I think its just another way to keep the market going, but it cant go up to the infinity. Its just impossible. Even the wealthiest of investors will run out of money to buy them one day, if the bubble is sustained like this.
And I dont know what is better - crashing the market or sustaining it. Both will lead to big problems imho, both economical and political. But to be honest I dont even know whether we will live to see the outcome. I bet we will, because things like these happen really fast in span of decades, or even years.
P.S.: Sorry for repeating word "that" all over again. I am not that proficient in english :D
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No need to be sorry, your English is perfectly understandable.
I can't see the EU supporting something that would be truly communist, but on the same time it is not like something truly capitalist would go either. Everywhere there is democracies the system used is essentially some sort of socialism/capitalism mix, that also includes the US even though I am sure many there things socialism=communism=evil which is just because they are silly. Even a guy like Trump did socialism, like fx. remember how he gave farmers money when his "winning" trade war with China messed up their livelihood.
Now I can't speak to the details in Czechia, but I somehow doubt things are much different from here only of course there will be differences. Here there certainly is not any sort of pressure from the media for people to rent, but economic factors has made getting into owning a home in the "largest" cities harder since prices keep rising and has done so since the late 2000's. I have a 2 room apartment and at times it has risen faster in value than I was making money from working.
However we are very far from there being anything nearing even a reform which would touch the real estate market, with the majority of people owning their homes for any government to think of that is unthinkable.
For decades now we have had different programs supporting home owners wanting to renovate for the sake of improving the energy efficiency of their homes, it can be in the form of making labor costs tax deductible when it is about insulating, putting in new windows, putting solar panels on the roof and so on. I don't see anything that will crash the market due to houses being unecological, instead it will be incentives to improve those houses as well as incentives for those building new houses.
don't worry first worlders
control immigration and you're good
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tell me 1 country except poland
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ye cuz europe can allow migration for few upcoming years
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then what? they'll let people die in the sea?
not gonna happen
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Already happening.
So that and we pay countries outside Europe to keep people away, just as we also do now.
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but it's not working out, is it ?
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It is, while not 100% it is working.
I can imagine the challenges are seen more in Italy than here up North, look at the number of people stopped from coming to Europe in many countries just outside of Europe.
There is close to 4 million in Turkey alone, it allowed most would likely want to come to Europe rather than stay in Turkey or return to countries that are dirt poor and/or destroyed by war.
they stay in open sea for some weeks and then get rescued by some country, usually Italy
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On average I think there is something like 5 drowning every day, that isn't exactly true.
Also more people arrive through Greece afaik and once landed the most end up in Germany, then France and the Italy.
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5 drowing yes but its 5 out ouf 400~ resecued just the other day
i dont know the % between countries but even if Italy is last there's SO MANY people coming its crazy
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It is many and I think it is a huge dilemma. On the one hand we like what we have and do not wanna lose that, but instead we actually like more only on the other hand it is actual people that come and many do so because where they lived there is nothing but destruction and death.
I don't know what the right answer is. It is clear to me that we can not take in everyone that want to come, only I do feel we should help as many as we can, while also making sure those we do help are the ones in real need rather than some pretending to be refugees while actually being immigrants.
wtf name
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wtf flair
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is it accurate tho?
we need thanos
Earth can support much more. Majority of territories are unpopulated
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Considering half of the the earth live in so small area
youtu.be/mcqq8eAufXk
Majority of HLTV users will never have sex, so can't have children = Won't contribute to the list
It is not increasing except africa
Without africa global fertility rate would be lower than 2
Europe isnt increased in last century
Germoney 1930's 70 million
Germoney currently 83 million
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There was that thing know as WWII between 1930's and now, it a big difference.
Not that you aren't right that the number in really most of the "western" world has numbers below 2, so that population only goes up due to immigration. Eventually as the whole world gets to a point where parents adjust to infant mortality isn't insanely high and also there is social welfare system meaning less need for kids as a retirement plan, then the global birth rate will come down.
shit will surely go down, population control is built into nature
dude, the metaverse is almost here. no one will do real sex anymore.
ppl will live on Mars by 2057 no need to worry
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No gonna work, remember that Mars is flat which causes all sorts of issues.
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China can mainly thank the effects of the one child policy for that. 25 years of only allowing 1 kid per couple will see you have an aging demographic. And then the cultural preference for sons over daughters and the measures some parents took to that end have created a large imbalance as well.
why to blame?
europe need ypung peoples to holt their standarts
+1 about africa, thats the cold truth
people keep blaming white countries, and meanwhile, africans are breeding like rabits but dont you dare say something about that or you will be labeled a racist
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Ironic coming from brazilian lmao
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Brazil has low fertility rate
probably way more since all predictions models have been incorrect
.... how u can write something like this ?
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why? im i wrong?
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why u right ?
why all predictions are wrong ?
i think we are ok for at least 100 years, hopefully more
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It depends on who you mean by "we".
Climate change and over population is gonna lead to mass migration and it will also cause wars.
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+1
OwellWasRight modeling worldwide population growth better than a team of experts cus "poor poeple sex alots." nice!
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its not that simple,maybe read again
Governments will create and spread new deseases to end the overpopuplation. Covid was now, in the next 30yrs we'll experience many more and more fatal ones, even tho science is evolving for the good, it also evolves for the bad side. In 500 years, Humans will no longer exist, at least on Earth.
Irony, the nations starving seem to have enough energy to keep bringing more kids in to the world, should be a crime, living in poverty yet keep bringing kids to join you. I can afford kids but the way the world is going I would not think about it, problem is they don't think. Pop rising in the US is the same, people on welfare keep cranking out kids.
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migration is gonna only get worse with climate change and economy crashing, even more people will start to move to 1st world countries
and if you bring this point, you are called a racist or elitist
You have no idea about subjecy apperantly
Poor countries has more dependant on farm economy so more childs=more workers on farm
Urbanization and feminism(woman's right) and country becoming less religious decrease fertility rate
Ur country had 6.6 fertility rate in 1960 more tham any country at today
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yes, buy all the houses like it's a game of Monopoly
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i mean the wealth inequality is only gonna rise every year
people who cant afford to invest will lag behind like in cs when u have 300 ping
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you are right colonialism gave antibiotics, vaccines and other technologies and now these people do not die in infancy as they did before
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Why indus valley and indochina has so much people ?!?!?!??!
good thing
Ive been interested in this subject for around 30 years now and you are correct. The optimistic projections has again and again been wrong and just to put it into perspective the year I was born the world population was 3.7 billion. Its insane how fast its been going.
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yup, its spiraling out of control but we have experts saying it will slow down and decline bla bla bla
Just to keep people relaxed
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Not with todays technology. Maybe sometimes in the future
how can u say that so calmly
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why do you want to massacre ur own people
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lmao +1
no way
it will slow down because the vaccine is turning everyone gay
i only need a few more months to see how AOT ends.The world is fucked anyway.
I dont think we will ever hit past 10 bill in the conceivable future
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population decline is undervalued by UN projections
african population growth is also no way that sustainable, especially with a lack of future investment from rapidly aging 1st world countries that will invest more in elderly care
Nigeria wont hit 400 because it cant feed so many, or rather it will collapse tragically quickly to below 400
China will shrunk by 50% by the end of the century
India will stop growing but remain stable i guess idk
The USA is reaching population decline as well
japan is losing half a million per year already
if you are like 20yo like me we will be fighting population collapse, not overpopulation
like 60% of a nation will be 65+ in the coming years
most likely an 'S' curve. so it will not grow indefnetly
That's very false...
We might not even be 7 bil.
Some say that this is conspiracy and the actual human population is around 3 bil.
Move to Mars with Elon Musk
Stats like this are usually a lot more complicated, I guarantee you most of those involved have thought of variable like condoms.
Developing countries usually see their brithrate lower with time -- overpopulation is largely a myth. There won't ever be a point where, with current trends, there are too many people to feed or house. The struggle has always been distribution of wealth and resources.
The only thing that could possibly cause this to change is global warming, mainly because of how much uncertainty there is around the future.
"unless something catastrophic happens" so let us relax
makes a complete guess and links wikipedia, real thinker right here
We can sustain a lot of people in this world. First, you need to take in consideration that the quality of life will improve a lot for poor people in the next decades so people will start having less children. Second, when poor people start having access to internet they will get addicted to animes and league of legends so they will make less sex. Third, even if we have 10bi people in 2057 this is actually a good thing, this means more people with the capacity to increase the total wealth in the world (more ideas, more people working, more people creating).
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