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HLTV Top-20 with excel v2.0
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Other norb4ki 
Good morning, hltv enjoyers! I've made some changes in my sheets so predictions to be more accurate. Calculated top-20 based on pre-blast fall stats and results occured very surprising for me. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XV0vGN9S.. What's new? 1. Added playoff rating As was mentioned by AdreN_1_major_adreN_0_major and shoom123 at previous thread, playoff rating is one of the most important stat in top-20 rating, so I calculated playoff rating for the most relevant teams. One page per team. Included: ENCE BIG NIP Moviestar Riders (for sunpayus) Cloud9 aka Players aka Gambit Furia NaVi Liquid Vitality MOUZ Astralis Heroic Outsiders aka VP FaZe G2 How I did math: I made some experiment to understand how HLTV calculates rating. Summed all maps ratings and divided by maps amount and the result occured incorrect. Then I tryed to multiply every map rating to amount of rounds in map and after it divided by total amount of rounds in series and result occured to be very close to original hltv rating. I've understood that I dont want to do this much calculations for each match so final decision was to multiply match rating with maps amount and sum up for all matches, after that just divide by total map amount. This seemed for me kinda logical because that way I got mean rating of player for entire year. But had to admit: it may be inaccurate. 2. Added points system instead of raw rating comparison. Thanks to S1mple2002 who gave me an idea to calculate points for each parameter. 3. Added points correction based on map amount Correlation between points amd maps played because more maps played = more stable perfomance or more mean rating. For example frozen got 1,24 rating against top-5 teams at big events, but he played only 4 maps what is extremely low. Thats why final points should be affected by played maps amount. How I did math: Final formula looks like this: Points = (Rating/max rating in table)^2,5 * (maps/max maps in table)^0,3 I've made exponential correlation for rating to make difference between extraordinary and mediocre rating more significant. 0,3 power in maps was added to make map correlation not this much impactfull. For example if set power to 1, faze players immidiately pop off to the top cuz they played the most maps in 2022. 4. Calculated MVP/EVP rating All calculations could be find at "Team rating" page Set different amount of points for mvp and evp at A, S and major-tier. Points could be adjusted automatically be changing points foe some category. 5. Added weights for each parameter What's next? Wait for global final results, update stats and play with weights Feel free to share your thoughts on my work! What should I add or adjust?
2022-11-30 09:20
Topics are hidden when running Sport mode.
Cool. I can’t really understand any of that though, way too complex for me.
2022-11-30 09:24
2 replies
#4
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Other norb4ki
If you have any questions, I'd be glad to answer and explain something you cant understand :)
2022-11-30 09:29
You must be proud to see Yekindar carrying NA into the top 20!
2022-12-01 00:29
#2
nEGRo | 
Denmark 45ETY
cool
2022-11-30 09:22
1 reply
#5
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Other norb4ki
Thank you!
2022-11-30 09:29
#3
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Spain AlfonGD
Damn I'm to dumb to understand that but really appreciate the effort :)
2022-11-30 09:24
1 reply
#14
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Other norb4ki
If you want, I may explain some parts you are not clear with :)
2022-11-30 14:18
0/8
2022-11-30 09:31
1 reply
#10
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Other norb4ki
It's okay if it doesnt work for you
2022-11-30 12:49
Are you really trying to brag with 8th grade maths here bro?
2022-11-30 09:34
4 replies
#8
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Other norb4ki
Thanks for asking! Not really
2022-11-30 09:41
#9
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Sweden svearike
bro u really living a life like this?
2022-11-30 09:48
1 reply
That's murii
2022-11-30 14:41
lol what
2022-11-30 14:31
nvm I'm dumb
2022-11-30 12:53
APR and hs% weight way to much imo
2022-11-30 14:07
6 replies
#13
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Other norb4ki
How small they should be at your opinion?
2022-11-30 14:16
5 replies
#15
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China RADNIKEY
HS% doesn’t mean that much It does sort of act as an correction for AWPers though
2022-11-30 14:19
1 reply
#16
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Other norb4ki
Yea, I thought about irrelevance of this parameter for awpers but in the same time I wanted to reward outstanding hs% such as b1t or yekindar has
2022-11-30 14:24
#24
ropz | 
Finland wormi
HS% should have 0 impact, it's just playstyle, not rating or success related thing
2022-11-30 14:34
2 replies
#26
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Other norb4ki
Well, I will reconsider hs weight in my post-blast update. Thank you!
2022-11-30 14:40
1 reply
#33
ropz | 
Finland wormi
np :) a kill is a kill, whether it was HS or 100 in 8 :D good HS ratio ofc may boost players kill count especially for entrys who fight against others with reflexes
2022-11-30 14:46
u could put in order? i`m dislexic 😢
2022-11-30 14:26
4 replies
#18
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Other norb4ki
You mean order of players based on calculated points?
2022-11-30 14:29
3 replies
order of players like 1,2,3 in the excel its 1,2,4,3,6, etc.
2022-11-30 14:30
2 replies
#21
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Other norb4ki
Did it. I forget to change places after recent weights adjustment
2022-11-30 14:33
1 reply
ty
2022-11-30 14:34
#22
ropz | 
Finland wormi
very good list
2022-11-30 14:34
1 reply
#25
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Other norb4ki
Thank you for your kind words!
2022-11-30 14:35
Zywoo 16 playoff maps Broky 57
2022-11-30 14:41
6 replies
#29
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Other norb4ki
Yep, thats it. Mister zywoo sleeped to much this year
2022-11-30 14:42
5 replies
Good Job on the spreadsheet tho. Constructive Opinion - If you could just format team ratings ( Each - not the Team Rating tab ) gyazo.com/c65454d104108ceec97dfdc371076a.. It would problably look way better If you could show playoffs rating separate for each player that would also be sick. Is that possible? ( For S & S+ tier events )
2022-11-30 14:48
4 replies
#46
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Other norb4ki
I'm not quite sure if I understood you correct. Do you want to add team rating for each team? And at the second you meant separate playoff rating for each tournament?
2022-11-30 15:01
3 replies
My bad Excel > Heroic Tab : gyazo.com/b9f445f8662f15353870ead2d7141f.. Looks a bit poor. Na'vi looks decent and could be a bit better to the viewer eye. About second part ( Playoff ) - Yes. Playoff rating for each tournament ( Players ).
2022-11-30 18:29
2 replies
#74
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Other norb4ki
Oh now I see. Yes, I'll try to make it more comfortable for view with the same fashion I formated main page. Also I will correct "team rating" page the same way. For the second one I am not promising making this, cuz its still a lot of work to do and I'm kinda lazy :D Anyway thank you for your tips! :)
2022-11-30 18:43
1 reply
No worries, thanks ^:)
2022-11-30 20:42
This just confirms that s1mple is nr. 1 this year, 16 playoff maps for ZywOo (missed all elite event playoffs (Cologne, Katowice, both majors)) aren't enough Very good list
2022-11-30 14:42
4 replies
#35
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Other norb4ki
Moreover zywoo has to show extraclass cs to reach second place. sh1ro is still a thing with second-best playoff rating and 22 more playoff maps played. Hard not to mention his evps
2022-11-30 14:48
3 replies
+1 Yeah, people act like ZywOo fights s1mple for his first place (recency bias) when in reality he has to fight for the 2nd place with sh1ro
2022-11-30 14:51
2 replies
#49
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Other norb4ki
I hope this spreadsheet will make it clear for some delusional fans :D
2022-11-30 15:04
1 reply
+1 Good job :)
2022-11-30 15:05
#31
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Germany Matrixrl1
this is class. bump
2022-11-30 14:43
1 reply
#32
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Other norb4ki
Much appreciated, danke!
2022-11-30 14:44
#38
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United States 1Tuurtle
So you're saying if Elige pops off at the World finals. He can still make top 20?
2022-11-30 14:53
9 replies
#39
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United States 1Tuurtle
Also it's weird to think Fl1t might be top 20
2022-11-30 14:54
4 replies
#47
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Other norb4ki
This is a surprise for me too. Before calculations I put him out of top-20
2022-11-30 15:03
2 replies
#50
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United States 1Tuurtle
Him and Hunter are so close though that HLTV might just give it to Hunter cause he's on a bigger team and a bigger name.
2022-11-30 15:04
1 reply
#58
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Other norb4ki
Will see. Global finals should put points over i
2022-11-30 15:20
is it? im actually surprised that hes not higher if anything. he was outsiders' one bright spot post YEKINDAR leave and pre Rio
2022-12-01 03:23
#41
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Other norb4ki
Chances are not this great, but it's still possible if he gets mvp while g2 and outsiders have to fail at the very beginning
2022-11-30 14:56
3 replies
#48
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United States 1Tuurtle
Well it's not that huge of a difference right? it's around 23.5 points between Elige and Flit. G2 in theory will crash out (looking like one of the weaker teams there), so it's just down to Outsiders, who I think will outplace Liquid, but maybe Elige performs really good and Flit just chokes?
2022-11-30 15:03
2 replies
#57
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Other norb4ki
According to the current stats and weights the gap is not this big, you are right. Plus I didnt count in blast fall, which gives elige a little bit more maps and stats. Sad thing about him is he didnt find much success during playoff stage, but its still up to him to get it to the top-20
2022-11-30 15:18
1 reply
#63
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United States 1Tuurtle
idk. If it comes down to team placing I think Flit will get it. I think Elige is a bit better individually, but Flit is going to end up more maps and not very far behind. Still hope Eilge (and Naf, but he's a bit further behind) can pull it off
2022-11-30 15:25
Why do u waster your time like that? I mean, it's a great job and stuff, but why?
2022-11-30 14:55
3 replies
#43
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Other norb4ki
Honestly I enjoyed making this doc, thats why
2022-11-30 14:57
2 replies
Fair enougth, i guess not we can't discuss about who will be top20 Congrats
2022-11-30 14:58
1 reply
#54
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Other norb4ki
This is the biggest compliment I could get, thank you!
2022-11-30 15:05
This is what you get when you're absolutely got no experience with Top 20's, didn't see other Tops and trying to calculate things based on parameters from your unexperienced and clueless head.
2022-11-30 14:57
5 replies
#51
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Other norb4ki
May you share your wisdom about how top-20 works?
2022-11-30 15:04
4 replies
1. Main stats from Elite events (without Top 5, 10, 20 filters): Rating, ADR, Impact, KAST, clutches, KPR, assists and etc. (hltv.org/stats/leaderboards?startDate=20..) 2. MVPs (Gold, silver, bronze, easy af.) Bronze doesn't give a shit when it comes to high places (c) Tw1gris. Gold ones from big LANs are pretty valuable. That's all. sh1ro can't be Top 2 cuz his main stats sucks, ax1le doesn't have MVPs and his stats < ZywOo's.
2022-11-30 15:11
3 replies
#61
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United Arab Emirates p1peb0mb
This
2022-11-30 15:24
#62
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Other norb4ki
Thanks for sharing!
2022-11-30 15:24
He absolutely can but I'd also favor ZywOo for the 2nd spot
2022-11-30 15:25
damm good job
2022-11-30 14:58
1 reply
#95
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Other norb4ki
many thanks!
2022-12-01 06:44
Bit i way to high and Frozen is way to low... honestly i don't think is accurate but i appreciate the effort and the job
2022-11-30 15:05
bad playoff raiting calculation Imagine two players played two maps on a tournament first one they win 16:4 or something and one did 1.50 and second one 1.00 Then second match score was 22:19 and now the first one had 1.00 and second one 1.50 Who will have better raiting overall on tournament ? ofc it will be guy who scored 1.50 in match with more rounds you dont have to take into consideration raiting from each map and calculate average. you need to calculate from entrie ROUND if you want to have good raiting. I know its much work but juat saying
2022-11-30 15:09
2 replies
Ah yes, I read somewhere that you have to consider the rounds played too
2022-11-30 15:26
#67
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Other norb4ki
As mentioned, I didnt use model with rating adjustment by rounds. Basically I took the mean of each match
2022-11-30 15:29
I appreciate your work but there are some issues. As someone already pointed out HS should not weight anything. Plus APR is rated way too high imo, should be 0.1-0.15. OPK and OPK Ratio both should be 0.5-0.7
2022-11-30 15:20
1 reply
#65
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Other norb4ki
Thanks for pionting this out. I will surely adjust weights after global finals. This is just a first look
2022-11-30 15:26
i think metrics like hs or apr punished m0nesy way too much, predicting him to be #11 ish. nevertheless gj man
2022-11-30 15:22
1 reply
#68
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Other norb4ki
Thank you! I will reconsider some weights after global finals
2022-11-30 15:30
excel g0d
2022-11-30 15:32
1 reply
#70
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Other norb4ki
Thanks!
2022-11-30 15:42
just wow, well done bro:)
2022-11-30 18:31
1 reply
#77
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Other norb4ki
Much appreciated! :)
2022-11-30 18:48
There must’ve been a mistake as apex isn’t on the list
2022-11-30 18:42
1 reply
#76
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Other norb4ki
apex is above any lists, he is in our hearts
2022-11-30 18:47
Ayo, much more in depth than before. Nice one!
2022-11-30 18:46
1 reply
#79
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Other norb4ki
I've tryed my best, but there is still a room to grow :)
2022-11-30 19:08
I have one question though. for the Playoff rating, does it include non big events (A Tier) as well?
2022-11-30 18:53
7 replies
#80
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Other norb4ki
It contains all events where hltv mvp took a place
2022-11-30 19:09
6 replies
Oh alright. One small feedback:- KPR should also count towards 1 point, just like ADR. And APR should be 0.25 points imo. And for YEKINDAR, his impact at big events is 1.31.
2022-12-01 02:55
5 replies
And also, one question from my side. Why are some players above other players, inspite of having less points? For example:- Axile above Zywoo.
2022-12-01 03:03
1 reply
#89
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Other norb4ki
it might be I forgot to sort the table after changing weights
2022-12-01 05:13
Any stat, which directly contributes to the overall rating should count towards 1 point. Example:- KAST DPR KPR Impact And the other stats, which doesn't contribute to the overall rating should count towards 0.25 point. Example:- APR HS%
2022-12-01 03:41
2 replies
#92
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Other norb4ki
Thanks for the notice!
2022-12-01 06:35
1 reply
Np :) Once again, just want to reiterate that your list is amazing, and you have done a great job at it.
2022-12-01 07:20
Nice
2022-12-01 03:19
1 reply
#93
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Other norb4ki
Thank you!
2022-12-01 06:36
#88
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Brazil Hagehrke
I think you can add some kind of system points to reward playoff wins, not only rating. I'm trying to think of something that will balance player accomplishments in the year, like blameF can't be top 9 kkkkkk
2022-12-01 03:48
nice work and cool list 👍
2022-12-01 06:14
1 reply
#94
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Other norb4ki
much obliged!
2022-12-01 06:43
#91
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Turkey SahinBey
you really worked hard nice
2022-12-01 06:25
1 reply
#96
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Other norb4ki
Many thanks!
2022-12-01 06:47
#98
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Azerbaijan S1mple2002
Good job mate!) I would also like to help you but unfortunately not so much times i had( But if anything i can help you with, feel free to write me) I am good in both statistics and csgo))
2022-12-01 07:30
2 replies
#101
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Other norb4ki
I also plan to make previous top-20 analysis to make weights adjustments more accurate and I need to regather all the stats of players who participated both blast fall and btast global finals. So I will contact you after global finals :)
2022-12-01 08:14
1 reply
Okay) Hope Navi wins it and S1mple mvp ahahahhahaha
2022-12-01 08:29
#99
JK | 
Australia S_FAN
Wtf. Hltv hire this mens already
2022-12-01 07:35
1 reply
#103
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Other norb4ki
Haha waiting for email :D
2022-12-01 08:17
Taken into account Sh1ro and Ax1le, how the fuck is Cloud9 so bad?
2022-12-01 07:45
1 reply
#102
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Other norb4ki
If you look closely to their playoff games, you will see that their seeding sucks. They got few tournaments in a row against prime faze at quarters or lower
2022-12-01 08:16
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