Forum thread: Astralis at RMR

2023-03-19 12:18

1 reply

I agree seeing how they are playing these days. Glaive can’t even navigate smokes lol.

2023-03-19 12:53

2023-03-19 12:18

no. their seed is so low they should get hard matches all the time

2023-03-19 12:19

12 replies

Low initial seed ironically gives you a high seed once Buchholtz kicks in in the 3rd round

2023-03-19 12:20

10 replies

really ?

2023-03-19 12:22

4 replies

Well in theory it does, cuz the teams you play against early on are most likely to go 3-0 or 3-1 so your own buchholtz score will be high. Bo1 upsets always bring the theory into disarray though so it is not very reliable

2023-03-19 12:24

3 replies

It's really hard to get through once you're already 0-2 down though

2023-03-19 12:25

2 replies

Yeah it is, but the buchholtz will help them even if they manage to snatch a bo1 win at 0-1 for example. Even more if they do it at 1-0. And if they deserve to be in the top 8, they'll have to beat the teams from 0-2 to 2-2 cuz those in theory are weaker than top 8. Bo3's will eliminate the randomness factor to an extent so then it just matters who is better

2023-03-19 12:29

1 reply

Yeah, perhaps. Last RMR was problematic because too many big teams lost their opening bo1s (which you mentioned). I think it could be a wild ride

2023-03-19 12:32

If you loose the first bo1 you have a 30% chance of qualifying on average. So.....

2023-03-19 12:34

4 replies

I don't think you can just calculate those chances on a whim, it entirely depends on the team you're looking at and how they stand against the field

2023-03-19 12:35

3 replies

You can calculate the odds Quite easily actually. Just look at whichever team looses the opener and how many of them qualify. It should (Atleast it used to be) only about 30%. It's an average, obviously for a good team the odds may be different but it's once again an average. And Astralis are about as average as you get in that RMR group.

2023-03-19 16:13

2 replies

That doesn't mean that that is your chance to qualify, that just means that statistically 30% of those teams qualify. Statistical percentages do not matter for predicting the chances of individuals

2023-03-19 16:14

1 reply

I get your argument and you get mine Let's not needlesly argue about some minor details

2023-03-19 16:21

first match is against bots in pyjamas tho

2023-03-19 12:39

almost losing to ATK LOL

2023-03-19 12:19

yes

2023-03-19 12:19

ofc

2023-03-19 12:19

i would have said yes because of how they played vs navi but then i remember how shit navi is currently, so i dont think so

2023-03-19 12:19

Probably

2023-03-19 12:19

hope they will

2023-03-19 12:19

Could do, Dev1ce and Blame tend to always play at least decently well, it probably depends on how the other 3 perform, Glaive is shaky recently and Xyp is sadly well past his prime

2023-03-19 12:20