Forum thread: help simple

twitter.com/s1mpleO/status/1674496716043..

2023-06-29 21:21

1 reply

not s0mple sry unintentional bait he is very hot tho

2023-06-29 21:21

Yes

2023-06-29 21:22

4 replies

cr7 goat

2023-06-29 21:22

3 replies

2023-06-29 21:23

1 reply

2023-06-29 22:06

smart user detected +1 commented

2023-06-29 22:13

bro. learn statistics for your own benefit

2023-06-29 21:22

1 reply

whats answer bro edited

2023-06-29 21:22

the way i understand it it doesn't matter if the team loses the first match and wins the second or the other way around so (79/100)*(21/100) should give you the answer, assuming there are no draws or that the draws count as "not winning"

2023-06-29 21:25

2 replies

its not that too

2023-06-29 21:38

Drawing is a subset of not winning. It doesn't matter.

2023-06-29 21:49

0,3318

2023-06-29 21:33

2 replies

#10

2023-06-29 21:39

1 reply

Whats the answer then?

2023-06-29 21:40

in next two games that are 4 scenarios: win win, lose lose, win lose, lose win. The two scenarios you want are the win lose and lose win. P to win lose: 79/100 * 21/100; P to lose win: 21/100 * 79/100. P you want: P to win lose + to lose win = 2 * 79/100 * 21/100 = 0.3318

2023-06-29 21:43

Bard: P (win one game, lose one game) + P (lose one game, win one game) = 2 * (0.79) * (0.21) = 0.3318

2023-06-29 21:45

2 matches, one of which team should win with the probability of 0,79, and second one it should not win with the probability of 0.21, so total probability is 0.79*0.21 = 0.1659 or 16.59%

2023-06-29 21:44

It's NOT 79/100 * 20/101 + 21/100*79/101 it's 79/100 * 21/100 + 21/100*79/100 = 2*79/100 * 21/100 not sure why you added/removed 1 to the numbers

2023-06-29 21:48

I'm a bit rusty on statistics, but isn't it just the binomial distribution? probability = binom(n,k)*p^k*(1-p)^(n-k), where binom(n,k) = n!/(k!(n-k)!), p = 79/100 is the probability of winning an individual match, n = 3 is the sample size, and k = 1 is the amount of successes. So I got probability = 0.104517.

2023-06-29 21:49

2 replies

n = 3 is the sample size. From where did you take that the sample size is 3? Its the next two games.

2023-06-29 21:59

1 reply

Ah shit, I misread.

2023-06-29 22:05

Look the answer should be 2 * 79/100 * 21/100 = 0.3318. However if for some reason you're supposed to update the probabilities(bayesianism is cancer btw) then it would be Scenario 1 79/100--> New prob of Winning = 80/101 --> New prob of losing = 101/101 - 80/101 = 21/101 79/100 * 21/101 = 0.16426 Scenario 2 21/100 --> New prob of losing= 22/101 -> New prob of winning = 101/101 - 22/101 = 79/101 21/100 * 79/101 = 0.16426 Final probability = 0.32852

2023-06-29 22:18

1 reply

omg!! bro ty i was so tired that i hadnt notice i added to the total and not to the 20 in my answer 79/100 * ((20/101)) + 21/100*79/101 rip ty :)

2023-06-29 22:37