NiP vs. fnatic preview in numbers
In this short article we take a look at the upcoming DreamHack Open Summer 2015 semi-final between NiP and fnatic in statistical terms.
It’s no secret fnatic have blown away NiP in 2015 in terms of success, and have come out on top far more often than not in the two Swedish giants’ head-to-head battles.
In this article we have only considered matches since Aleksi "allu" Jalli joined up with NiP, which means some of their earlier games, including the semi-final at MLG X Games, is not included in the analysis.
In total the two juggernauts have faced each other on seventeen maps, nine of which offline. They’ve battled in five series, four of which took place on LAN. Below are their full head-to-head results:
|June 1||NiP||16-11||fnatic||dust2||ESL ESEA|
|May 16||NiP||14-16||fnatic||dust2||Gfinity Spring 2|
|NiP||22-20||fnatic||overpass||Gfinity Spring 2|
|May 2||NiP||12-16||fnatic||dust2||FACEIT Finals|
|April 25||NiP||4-16||fnatic||cobblestone||CCS Finals|
|April 5||NiP||16-8||fnatic||mirage||CCS Qualifier|
|March 15||NiP||13-16||fnatic||inferno||ESL One Katowice|
|NiP||16-10||fnatic||cache||ESL One Katowice|
|NiP||14-16||fnatic||dust2||ESL One Katowice|
NiP vs. fnatic head-to-head results since the date allu joined
Though the two teams haven’t exactly seemed equal at all points, if you take a look at their round differential in head-to-head games, it actually is fairly close – with fnatic up 14.4 over NiP’s 13.5 rounds averaged per game.
If we disregard their online games, the differential grows slightly in fnatic’s favor, with the black and orange team gaining a 2.8 round advantage over Christopher "GeT_RiGhT" Alesund’s crew at 15.8 over 13.0 in a sample size of nine games.
However, it's interesting to note that even in their nine LAN maps, of which fnatic have won seven, the round difference has still been less than three rounds.
In terms of map wins fnatic are up 10-7 overall, but have been significantly more dominant on LAN, where it matters more – the team led by Markus "pronax" Wallsten has outscored NiP 7-2 in maps on LAN.
When it comes down to best-of-three or best-of-five series the picture becomes even more brutal, with fnatic having won four times to NiP’s one, with a straight up 4-0 record in series played offline.
Map wins in NiP vs. fnatic head-to-head matches
Looking at maps, the Swedes have played each other on all seven maps currently in the map pool, and fnatic hold a lead on four of them – de_cobblestone, de_dust2, de_mirage and de_train.
Meanwhile Richard "Xizt" Landström’s team has been better on de_cache, de_inferno and de_overpass. However, it is worth noting that out of those seven maps, both de_overpass and de_train have only been played once.
Statistics from NiP vs. fnatic matches since allu joined
In terms of the statistical pegging order as measured by our rating system, the only player who has lost a spot compared to his 2015 standing in his team is Patrik "f0rest" Lindberg, who has overall been better than allu.
Drop offs are natural in general, as the opponents in this head-to-head series have been tougher than average, and the mean drop-off among the ten players has been -0.07.
Statistics from NiP vs. fnatic LAN matches since allu joined
Generally it’s obvious that fnatic’s stats are a whole lot better – they have won a majority of these maps, with a 7-2 record – but there’s one very interesting fact to point, and that is the lackluster performance of f0rest.
The former superstar stated in our interview after group B that he will return to form, but at this point it is questionable if that will happen, and if so, when it will happen – and seeing this drop definitely makes any fnatic fan feel better, or should at least.
friberg has been downright horrible in their head-to-head matches versus fnatic, especially on LAN, and so far at DreamHack things aren't looking better, in terms of what is supposed to be his bread and butter.
To this day people believe friberg is one of the best entry fraggers in the game - with no statistical backing - and in Jönköping he is 14-34 as a terrorist so far, with a 2-9 score in entry kills.
Statistics from NiP vs. fnatic online matches since allu joined
In the online games f0rest has fared significantly better – in fact, his rating differential of 0.28 is more than the difference between the world’s best player, by far, and an average player.
Still, NiP have won online maps with a 5-3 record, which means the way to interpret these statistics likely should be to see who needs to play better for NiP to win, or who they must make ineffective on fnatic to win.
On fnatic Olof "olofmeister" Kajbjer had a larger bump in their LAN play over online play than even f0rest’s drop off at +0.29, almost matched by Freddy "KRIMZ" Johansson’s +0.21 with only Jesper "JW" Wecksell having a worse rating with a -0.02 differential.
|Christopher "GeT_RiGhT" Alesund||1.08||0.99||+0.09|
|Aleksi "allu" Jalli||0.96||1.10||-0.14|
|Patrik "f0rest" Lindberg||0.85||1.13||-0.28|
|Richard "Xizt" Landström||0.88||1.00||-0.12|
|Adam "friberg" Friberg||0.77||0.93||-0.16|
|Olof "olofmeister" Kajbjer||1.22||0.93||+0.29|
|Freddy "KRIMZ" Johansson||1.17||0.96||+0.21|
|Jesper "JW" Wecksell||1.01||1.03||-0.02|
|Robin "flusha" Rönnquist||1.02||1.00||+0.02|
|Markus "pronax" Wallsten||0.96||0.83||+0.13|
NiP will take on fnatic at 14:00 today in the semi-finals of DreamHack Open Summer 2015, where a total of $40,000 is up for grabs in prize money.
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