NiP vs. fnatic preview in numbers

In this short article we take a look at the upcoming DreamHack Open Summer 2015 semi-final between NiP and fnatic in statistical terms.

It’s no secret fnatic have blown away NiP in 2015 in terms of success, and have come out on top far more often than not in the two Swedish giants’ head-to-head battles.

In this article we have only considered matches since Aleksi "allu" Jalli joined up with NiP, which means some of their earlier games, including the semi-final at MLG X Games, is not included in the analysis.

In total the two juggernauts have faced each other on seventeen maps, nine of which offline. They’ve battled in five series, four of which took place on LAN. Below are their full head-to-head results:

Date
Score Map Event
June 9 Sweden NiP 13-16 Sweden fnatic train FACEIT 
June 1 Sweden NiP 16-11 Sweden fnatic dust2 ESL ESEA
May 16 Sweden NiP 14-16 Sweden fnatic dust2 United Kingdom Gfinity Spring 2
  Sweden NiP 22-20 Sweden fnatic overpass United Kingdom Gfinity Spring 2
May 2 Sweden NiP 12-16 Sweden fnatic dust2 United Kingdom FACEIT Finals
  Sweden NiP 7-16 Sweden fnatic mirage United Kingdom FACEIT Finals
April 25 Sweden NiP 4-16 Sweden fnatic cobblestone Romania CCS Finals
  Sweden NiP 6-16 Sweden fnatic mirage Romania CCS Finals
April 5 Sweden NiP 16-8 Sweden fnatic mirage CCS Qualifier
  Sweden NiP 16-10 Sweden fnatic cache CCS Qualifier
  Sweden NiP 11-16 Sweden fnatic cobblestone CCS Qualifier
  Sweden NiP 16-13 Sweden fnatic inferno CCS Qualifier
April 2 Sweden NiP 16-7 Sweden fnatic inferno FACEIT
March 15 Sweden NiP 13-16 Sweden fnatic inferno Poland ESL One Katowice
  Sweden NiP 16-10 Sweden fnatic cache Poland ESL One Katowice
  Sweden NiP 14-16 Sweden fnatic dust2 Poland ESL One Katowice
February 22 Sweden NiP 18-21 Sweden fnatic mirage FACEIT
Average
13.5-14.4
   

NiP vs. fnatic head-to-head results since the date allu joined

Though the two teams haven’t exactly seemed equal at all points, if you take a look at their round differential in head-to-head games, it actually is fairly close – with fnatic up 14.4 over NiP’s 13.5 rounds averaged per game.

If we disregard their online games, the differential grows slightly in fnatic’s favor, with the black and orange team gaining a 2.8 round advantage over Christopher "GeT_RiGhT" Alesund’s crew at 15.8 over 13.0 in a sample size of nine games.

However, it's interesting to note that even in their nine LAN maps, of which fnatic have won seven, the round difference has still been less than three rounds.

In terms of map wins fnatic are up 10-7 overall, but have been significantly more dominant on LAN, where it matters more – the team led by Markus "pronax" Wallsten has outscored NiP 7-2 in maps on LAN.

When it comes down to best-of-three or best-of-five series the picture becomes even more brutal, with fnatic having won four times to NiP’s one, with a straight up 4-0 record in series played offline.

Wins/Map Sweden NiP Sweden fnatic
de_cache 2 0
de_cobblestone 0 2
de_dust2 1 3
de_inferno 2 1
de_mirage 1 3
de_overpass 1 0
de_train 0 1
Total 7 10

Map wins in NiP vs. fnatic head-to-head matches

Looking at maps, the Swedes have played each other on all seven maps currently in the map pool, and fnatic hold a lead on four of them – de_cobblestone, de_dust2, de_mirage and de_train.

Meanwhile Richard "Xizt" Landström’s team has been better on de_cache, de_inferno and de_overpass. However, it is worth noting that out of those seven maps, both de_overpass and de_train have only been played once.

Statistics from NiP vs. fnatic matches since allu joined

In terms of the statistical pegging order as measured by our rating system, the only player who has lost a spot compared to his 2015 standing in his team is Patrik "f0rest" Lindberg, who has overall been better than allu.

Generally it seems that all players are, give or take, where you expect them to be, with the biggest drop-offs coming from f0rest at -0.10 and from Adam "friberg" Friberg at -0.12.

Most consistent – compared to 2015 overall level – have been pronax with a mere drop of -0.01 and allu at -0.02.

Drop offs are natural in general, as the opponents in this head-to-head series have been tougher than average, and the mean drop-off among the ten players has been -0.07.

Statistics from NiP vs. fnatic LAN matches since allu joined

Generally it’s obvious that fnatic’s stats are a whole lot better – they have won a majority of these maps, with a 7-2 record – but there’s one very interesting fact to point, and that is the lackluster performance of f0rest.

The former superstar stated in our interview after group B that he will return to form, but at this point it is questionable if that will happen, and if so, when it will happen – and seeing this drop definitely makes any fnatic fan feel better, or should at least.

friberg has been downright horrible in their head-to-head matches versus fnatic, especially on LAN, and so far at DreamHack things aren't looking better, in terms of what is supposed to be his bread and butter.

To this day people believe friberg is one of the best entry fraggers in the game - with no statistical backing - and in Jönköping he is 14-34 as a terrorist so far, with a 2-9 score in entry kills.

Statistics from NiP vs. fnatic online matches since allu joined

In the online games f0rest has fared significantly better – in fact, his rating differential of 0.28 is more than the difference between the world’s best player, by far, and an average player.

Still, NiP have won online maps with a 5-3 record, which means the way to interpret these statistics likely should be to see who needs to play better for NiP to win, or who they must make ineffective on fnatic to win.

Everyone on NiP had a drop off from online to LAN – or from winning to losing – except for GeT_RiGhT, with friberg the second biggest dropper at -0.16, followed by allu’s -0.14 and Xizt’s -0.12.

On fnatic Olof "olofmeister" Kajbjer had a larger bump in their LAN play over online play than even f0rest’s drop off at +0.29, almost matched by Freddy "KRIMZ" Johansson’s +0.21 with only Jesper "JW" Wecksell having a worse rating with a -0.02 differential.

Player LAN Online Differential
Sweden Christopher "GeT_RiGhT" Alesund 1.08 0.99 +0.09
Finland Aleksi "allu" Jalli 0.96 1.10 -0.14
Sweden Patrik "f0rest" Lindberg 0.85 1.13 -0.28
Sweden Richard "Xizt" Landström 0.88 1.00 -0.12
Sweden Adam "friberg" Friberg 0.77 0.93 -0.16
Sweden Olof "olofmeister" Kajbjer 1.22 0.93 +0.29
Sweden Freddy "KRIMZ" Johansson 1.17 0.96 +0.21
Sweden Jesper "JW" Wecksell 1.01 1.03 -0.02
Sweden Robin "flusha" Rönnquist 1.02 1.00 +0.02
Sweden Markus "pronax" Wallsten 0.96 0.83 +0.13
Average 0.99 0.99 +0.00

NiP will take on fnatic at 14:00 today in the semi-finals of DreamHack Open Summer 2015, where a total of $40,000 is up for grabs in prize money.

You can find stream information for the match on our match page. In addition to f0rest's interview, we have also interviewed fnatic's flusha in Jönköping.

Follow HLTV.org’s @lurppis_ on Twitter.

Sweden Richard 'Xizt' Landström
Richard 'Xizt' Landström
Age:
28
Team:
No team
Rating 1.0:
1.00
Maps played:
1549
KPR:
0.68
DPR:
0.65
APR:
0.17
Sweden Olof 'olofmeister' Kajbjer
Olof 'olofmeister' Kajbjer
Age:
27
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.08
Maps played:
1329
KPR:
0.74
DPR:
0.65
APR:
0.13
Sweden Christopher 'GeT_RiGhT' Alesund
Christopher 'GeT_RiGhT' Alesund
Age:
29
Team:
No team
Rating 1.0:
1.10
Maps played:
1611
KPR:
0.75
DPR:
0.64
APR:
0.15
Finland Aleksi 'allu' Jalli
Aleksi 'allu' Jalli
Age:
27
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.10
Maps played:
1391
KPR:
0.75
DPR:
0.64
APR:
0.11
Sweden Freddy 'KRIMZ' Johansson
Freddy 'KRIMZ' Johansson
Age:
25
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.06
Maps played:
1377
KPR:
0.71
DPR:
0.63
APR:
0.15
Sweden Jesper 'JW' Wecksell
Jesper 'JW' Wecksell
Age:
24
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.06
Maps played:
1597
KPR:
0.74
DPR:
0.68
APR:
0.14
Sweden Markus 'pronax' Wallsten
Markus 'pronax' Wallsten
Age:
28
Team:
No team
Rating 1.0:
0.89
Maps played:
1199
KPR:
0.60
DPR:
0.67
APR:
0.14
Sweden Adam 'friberg' Friberg
Adam 'friberg' Friberg
Age:
28
Team:
No team
Rating 1.0:
0.99
Maps played:
1509
KPR:
0.68
DPR:
0.67
APR:
0.16
Sweden Patrik 'f0rest' Lindberg
Patrik 'f0rest' Lindberg
Age:
31
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.12
Maps played:
1623
KPR:
0.77
DPR:
0.65
APR:
0.12
Sweden Robin 'flusha' Rönnquist
Robin 'flusha' Rönnquist
Age:
26
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.07
Maps played:
1502
KPR:
0.73
DPR:
0.65
APR:
0.18
#1
CIS Ume 
Fnatic gonna take this for sure! Friberg will have to step up if NiP gonna have a chance.
2015-06-15 05:11
fnatic best team
2015-06-15 05:15
#19
World fns1 
f0rest onliner
2015-06-15 05:26
#104
XeqtR | 
Hong Kong wqnxy1 
jw/flusha onliners =D
2015-06-15 11:37
allu onliner
2015-06-15 13:09
get_onliner right
2015-06-15 13:22
#94
 | 
Lithuania rokku 
nah.. they not
2015-06-15 11:10
And everything could have changed if NiP hadn't choked on that one round on dust 2 at katowice at 14 - 14 where fnatic tec9 rushed short. Had they won that, they had won the major finales 2 - 0, and they would gain more confidence to keep dominating the rest of the season. I really think this game today is going to be close. Hope friberg steps it up.
2015-06-15 11:27
it wasnt choke u idiot. allu hit both players on short with awp but those shots were bugged. fnatic won dust 2 because of fcuked up reg, bugged game. also one round 1v1 was won by ghosting from scums krimz and flusha.
2015-06-15 13:22
I wanna say how much but I almost feel sad for people like you lol
2015-06-15 13:37
I really feel bad for you, do you understand what you're saying even? I watched a demo, more than once, as well as the game at the time and seriously, both shots missed. The 1v1, IT'S A MAJOR TOURNAMENT WHERE 1ST PLACE GETS $100,000! KRiMZ and Flusha would have been stupid not to call it out, people do in MM even where it makes NO difference whether you win or lose. I'm sure with that much pressure you would have done the "honourable" thing and said nothing instead of thinking of the money involved wouldn't you?
2015-06-16 12:35
r u fnatic memeber or just a moron?
2015-06-21 01:13
I think you're the moron. Why would KRiMZ and Flusha not call it out? They have a good chance at getting a lot of money if they do call it out... Also, no Allu did miss... Please, where am I wrong if I'm such a moron?
2015-06-21 05:02
:)
2015-06-15 05:10
:(
2015-06-15 05:25
)
2015-06-15 07:02
#76
United Kingdom ecu 
:
2015-06-15 09:56
.
2015-06-15 11:16
2015-06-15 11:28
#105
XeqtR | 
Hong Kong wqnxy1 
;
2015-06-15 11:38
#3
 | 
Azerbaijan Verylising 
so rip nip
2015-06-15 05:10
#55
dktenso | 
Brazil lgzn 
more like nip disband haha. definitely not a short article though.
2015-06-15 07:49
:)
2015-06-15 05:10
f0rest onliner confirmed :D
2015-06-15 05:11
wow
2015-06-15 05:11
good talk
2015-06-15 05:11
nice article lurppis
2015-06-15 05:12
+1 First time I've seen a feature like this on HLTV, was a very interesting read
2015-06-15 08:53
+1 want to see more like this from other teams too maybe tsm vs fnatic?
2015-06-15 11:28
No that wouldn't be fair for fnatic
2015-06-15 11:35
exactly :)))
2015-06-15 11:37
oddsway
2015-06-15 05:17
Interesting
2015-06-15 05:18
cache infeno overpass and its nips game it seems
2015-06-15 05:19
lurppis always quality content <3333
2015-06-15 05:24
#20
 | 
India transformer 
All comes down to Get Right's strat calls and ALLU's, awping abilites.
2015-06-15 05:26
#34
Frankie | 
United States lybrel 
GTR on Adderall worse than Pronax. Allu with aimbot worse than JW
2015-06-15 06:01
Honestly Xizt should still be IGL. Him on adderall could well put him in front of Pronax but there is no way GeT_RiGhT reaches Pronax's level of IGL.
2015-06-16 12:37
NiP onliners vs fnatic confirmed by statistics
2015-06-15 05:26
HLTV taking the csgolounge odd sway to the next lvl
2015-06-15 05:29
must be hard to read this as a NiP fankid
2015-06-15 05:29
(not a fankid, but do support swedish teams) I think that answer is actually no. Basically, it's NiP. Sure, their game might be RIPNIP 0-2 vs fnatic, but again, it's nip. You'll never know until the very last round. They're capable of anything, including comeback from 5-15 score n etc. Yes, fnatic has a strong edge over nip atm as Olofmeister is performing like a god, whole fnatic is playing their game without big flaws and everything seems to connect. But again, first rule when nip is playing is you can never rule out nip. (sorry for my english)
2015-06-15 11:13
Best Oddsway ever! kappa
2015-06-15 05:32
nip onliners ez for fnatic :)
2015-06-15 05:34
NiP onliners, ayyyyyy
2015-06-15 05:35
Wow you must be getting payed really good to do so much research.
2015-06-15 05:36
#36
Frankie | 
United States lybrel 
He owns half the site...
2015-06-15 06:01
These are just statistics they've been accumulating as an habit to do this kind of analysis when needed. I suspect they have this for fnatic vs nV, NiP vs TSM and so on... Maybe the top6 teams. It's a cool initiative.
2015-06-15 10:23
NiP onliners
2015-06-15 05:36
#30
 | 
Finland 2op 
lurppis is back <3
2015-06-15 05:37
not seen him post in ages! where has he been?
2015-06-15 10:22
#31
 | 
Brazil cinking 
Thats why olof and get are the best but i prefer olof invidual and nip like a team i wish they make a great match good like guys
2015-06-15 05:40
olofmeister 2strong
2015-06-15 05:49
olof LANer confirmed
2015-06-15 05:53
More articles like this please. Great read.
2015-06-15 06:01
Great to see some work from lurppis here again, i hope theres more to follow.
2015-06-15 06:05
Nip about to get 2-0 by fnc lol unless f0rest finds his "form"
2015-06-15 06:09
Number don't lie Friburger is so low now
2015-06-15 06:13
#40
World 1663 
go fnatic!! olof noob offliner
2015-06-15 06:14
did we really need that? srsly... its Bo3..EZ for fnatic
2015-06-15 06:18
Good article. Enjoyed all the analysis
2015-06-15 06:18
f0rest onliner.
2015-06-15 06:21
excellent writeup as always, lurppis I wonder if you put this much effort into your securities analysis
2015-06-15 06:38
#46
 | 
Sweden klvmeister 
ez for LANatic! =D
2015-06-15 06:38
To this day people believe Friberg is one of the best entry fraggers in the game - with no statistical backing Sounds like anders
2015-06-15 06:43
#53
 | 
Poland Marvelm 
Sadly it does.
2015-06-15 07:23
Nice work lurppis
2015-06-15 07:20
It's impressive how Fnatic can win matches with that hs%.
2015-06-15 07:41
#59
 | 
Latvia GekonsCS 
And how ScreaM can't with his....your point is totally invalid!
2015-06-15 08:04
If all the riflers in screams team would have 70% hs they would most certainly win...
2015-06-15 15:59
#134
 | 
Latvia GekonsCS 
You clearly don't understand what this number stands for - you can get 10 kills from whom 7 will be HS meaning a 70% HS, or you can get 20 kills from whom only like 10 are HS resulting in 50% HS. The stat itself does not matter if you are looking at the outcome of the game.
2015-06-15 17:50
#56
 | 
Finland Smoonah 
GOD allu?
2015-06-15 07:52
pronax > friberg, that's actually really really bad lol.. Like really really really really bad.. a caller getting more frags then an entry fragger and clutcher.. gg
2015-06-15 08:00
+ dennis - friberg
2015-06-15 08:02
fnatic always wins when it matters
2015-06-15 08:28
olof 1.22 - on lan krimz 1.17 - on lan thats why they are the best team in the world
2015-06-15 08:30
tsm?
2015-06-15 12:37
he meant like two man team i think
2015-06-15 13:26
#62
cArn | 
Vietnam milandini 
Great analysis! Gj lurpis!
2015-06-15 08:37
sick stats thx
2015-06-15 08:41
-friberg plz
2015-06-15 08:42
swaying them odds with these hard stats
2015-06-15 08:51
Pronax > Xizt, friberg and f0rest on LAN confirmed
2015-06-15 08:56
#68
 | 
Australia Turboblaze_  
Interesting, Allu + score. Good on him!
2015-06-15 09:12
TL;DR - kick friberg, f0rest onliner.
2015-06-15 09:23
friberg needs to step up
2015-06-15 09:27
f0rest onliner confirmed
2015-06-15 09:28
Good job lurppis, nice read.
2015-06-15 09:28
#75
 | 
Latvia Ke]R[4u 
very nice, hope to see more of these in the future! p.s. forest onliner!
2015-06-15 09:41
#77
REAL | 
Norway kakkopp 
Fnatic only Cheats on lans :D
2015-06-15 10:02
#78
EAZY | 
Czech Republic baylife 
sway
2015-06-15 10:03
#80
 | 
CIS Shoxie<3 
good work
2015-06-15 10:20
This is actually interesting, gj.
2015-06-15 10:42
#85
allu | 
Finland Fherrera 
"bot allu" more like god allu
2015-06-15 10:45
Good stuff lurppis. If you ever have the time in the future these kind of articles are always interesting.
2015-06-15 10:46
good article
2015-06-15 10:50
#88
hampus | 
Sweden Exxet 
Lurpiss<33333
2015-06-15 10:53
fnatic are better
2015-06-15 10:56
nice
2015-06-15 11:03
#92
World 1663 
btw this statistical preview is great and you should make like these more often (y) gj hltv!!
2015-06-15 11:04
Nice article! Looking forward to this match as last time I've this two teams in Katowice finals(been there, live), it was great match with lot of beautiful frags. Fnatics are indeed considered as a better team now(totally deserved), but NIP can surprise anytime :). Oh and I'm NIP fan, but that doesn't matter as I'm not hater :D
2015-06-15 11:09
Friberg BOT,ALLU AND GTR GODS BUT in MATCH Threads we SEE BOT ALLU & GOD FOREST+FRIBERG
2015-06-15 11:12
didnt read lol
2015-06-15 11:25
So on average, they play worse than average players would? :P
2015-06-15 11:43
it will be ez for nip.
2015-06-15 11:57
Fanatic has high probability to win but if there is a team to surprise the best its NiP. So hope they will bring their A game and it will be a fun series to watch. And may the best team win [ Fuck skin, dont care about betting :)]
2015-06-15 12:04
ez for olof :)
2015-06-15 12:16
-57 holy fuckballs
2015-06-15 12:21
"To this day people believe Friberg is one of the best entry fraggers in the game with no statistical backing" I would argue this is one of the key reasons that you can't get everything from the stats. If people watch CS and know what they are talking about then it's obvious to see that Friberg is a great entry fragger, it isn't about making the numbers or mopping up kills, it's about being the guy that gets traded, the guy that does the move that sets up the play. You of all people should understand what constitutes a good entry player Lurppis. Don't get me wrong, Friberg has been extremely below par this year. But my point is that you cannot learn everything from looking at the stats in a vacuum.
2015-06-15 12:33
thats why its called entryfragger
2015-06-15 16:58
f0rest onliner xd
2015-06-15 12:42
Yeh...not even excited. Back in the days thta' was different, now this kind of matches happens everyday...too much matches kill the matches. PLus this will be on crap maps like Cbbl or whatever..
2015-06-15 13:08
GL to fnatic
2015-06-15 13:15
Fnatic = NIP
2015-06-15 13:15
Haha though truth allu is one of the best players in NiP. Statistics up there tell the truth.. always when NiP loses all flame allu '' allu bot '' allu noob '' allu can't play '' im not saying allu is god or anything but when NiP loses tonight flame the team not the one player :)
2015-06-15 13:25
nice
2015-06-15 13:30
This was interesting, thank you.
2015-06-15 13:44
lurppis is the only analyst in the scene who actually brings some substance to the table. It amazes me how events keep hiring the same cliché-champions to analyze over and over again.
2015-06-15 13:47
#128
 | 
Greece her-1g 
allu is definitely the problem in nip.... i cri evritiem with the hltv.org community
2015-06-15 14:01
flusha obviously not lifting mouse enough against NiP
2015-06-15 14:46
lanmeister
2015-06-15 14:53
#131
 | 
Australia SUNSPY 
no TSM no dangers
2015-06-15 15:15
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