NiP vs. EnVyUs statistical preview

With NiP taking on EnVyUs in the grand final of Gfinity Summer Masters I within the hour, we've put together a small statistical preview to get you ready for the action.

These two rosters have faced off an overwhelmingly many times - on total of twenty-two maps dating back to February 22. To make the analysis more relevant, we have narrowed down our sample size.

With six maps played after April 23 - more than two months back - we have focused solely on those six, and ignored the sixteen others in orders to get more accurate and useful information out of our analysis.


natu's coached NiP are slight favorites in the grand final 

For the record, in their twenty-two encounters EnVyUs are up sizably, 14-8 in maps, with tied scores only on de_cobblestone and de_dust2, and a huge 4-1 lead on de_inferno.

Once focused on the more recent games - which give a better idea of these teams' capabilities and their players form in their head-to-head series - NiP are actually up 4-2 in maps.

Date Team Score Team Map Event
22 Jun Sweden NiP 21-18 France EnVyUs de_cache FACEIT
11 Jun Sweden NiP 16-3 France EnVyUs de_cobblestone ESL ESEA
11 Jun Sweden NiP 12-16 France EnVyUs de_train FACEIT
24 Apr Sweden NiP 16-11 France EnVyUs de_mirage CCS Finals
24 Apr Sweden NiP 36-33 France EnVyUs de_dust2 CCS Finals
24 Apr Sweden NiP 10-16 France EnVyUs de_cache CCS Finals
 
Average Sweden NiP 18.5-16.2 France EnVyUs

With only six maps played, there's no need to create a map matrix, as you can easily see the teams are tied on de_cache, the BoysInBlue lead on de_train, and NiP have a 1-0 edge on others.

NiP beat EnVyUs in a best-of-three series at CCS Finals - including the marathon 36-33 overtime game that inflates the average score - and the three more recent games were played online.

Let's then take a look at how these players have fared overall on the six maps, with statistics combined for their games from our database:

Notably the best two players have been Vincent "Happy" Schopenhauer and Aleksi "allu" Jalli, while Patrik "f0rest" Lindberg and Richard "shox" Papillon have struggled especially much.

In fact, the only player whose rating is above their 2015 rating in these matches is NiP's lonely Finn, with a rating surplus of 0.05. Others range between 0.01 and 0.21 in the negative.

Largest drop-offs have been shox at -0.21 and his teammate Edouard "SmithZz" Dubourdeaux at -0.17. All other players have been playing within 0.1 of their 2015 rating so far.

Then, let's take a look at each team's statistics in their wins. First up are statistics for the four maps NiP have won out of six:

Now, in order to draw some comparisons between the two, are the statistics for the two maps - small sample size, but others were far too old to matter - EnVy have won:

Most notably allu is actually the only player whose rating has been better in losses than in wins - an anomaly, especially since his rating in wins is equal to his 2015 average.

The largest two jumps in their wins are f0rest and Adam "friberg" Friberg, at 0.39 and 0.45, respectively. Huge changes, which would make below average players the world's best.

Not far behind is nV's Nathan "NBK-" Schmitt at a gain of 0.37, and then all of Richard "Xizt" Landström, Happy and SmithZz somewhere between 0.24 and 0.28.

Average differential in rating difference from wins to losses among these ten players in these series were 0.22, with Fabien "kioShiMa" Fiey with a second smallest change at 0.13.

Gfinity Summer Masters I grand final is set to go live at 19:00 and you can find all stream information as well as the map veto process from our hot match page.

Follow HLTV.org's @lurppis_ on Twitter.

France Nathan 'NBK-' Schmitt
Nathan 'NBK-' Schmitt
Age:
25
Team:
No team
Rating 1.0:
1.04
Maps played:
1652
KPR:
0.70
DPR:
0.66
APR:
0.15
France Edouard 'SmithZz' Dubourdeaux
Edouard 'SmithZz' Dubourdeaux
Age:
30
Team:
No team
Rating 1.0:
0.96
Maps played:
1161
KPR:
0.65
DPR:
0.67
APR:
0.14
Sweden Richard 'Xizt' Landström
Richard 'Xizt' Landström
Age:
28
Team:
No team
Rating 1.0:
1.00
Maps played:
1549
KPR:
0.68
DPR:
0.65
APR:
0.17
France Vincent 'Happy' Schopenhauer
Vincent 'Happy' Schopenhauer
Age:
27
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.06
Maps played:
1442
KPR:
0.74
DPR:
0.67
APR:
0.12
Finland Aleksi 'allu' Jalli
Aleksi 'allu' Jalli
Age:
27
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.10
Maps played:
1391
KPR:
0.75
DPR:
0.64
APR:
0.11
France Richard 'shox' Papillon
Richard 'shox' Papillon
Age:
27
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.10
Maps played:
1573
KPR:
0.75
DPR:
0.66
APR:
0.12
Sweden Adam 'friberg' Friberg
Adam 'friberg' Friberg
Age:
28
Team:
No team
Rating 1.0:
0.99
Maps played:
1509
KPR:
0.68
DPR:
0.67
APR:
0.16
Sweden Patrik 'f0rest' Lindberg
Patrik 'f0rest' Lindberg
Age:
31
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.12
Maps played:
1625
KPR:
0.77
DPR:
0.65
APR:
0.12
France Fabien 'kioShiMa' Fiey
Fabien 'kioShiMa' Fiey
Age:
25
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.01
Maps played:
1247
KPR:
0.68
DPR:
0.64
APR:
0.15
that 36-33 doe
2015-06-28 18:35
hl3 confirmered
2015-06-28 19:00
LOL +1
2015-06-28 19:10
#40
allu | 
United States SuFixT 
+1
2015-06-28 19:13
#3
XeqtR | 
Hong Kong wqnxy1 
nice
2015-06-28 18:36
Useless news as NIP will play for 100% while ENVYS will not (esea 250k in next weekend).
2015-06-28 19:16
yeah right kappa
2015-06-28 19:41
These statistical analyses are really interesting, I think it would be really cool if they had a big one worked on by a few people at HLTV before a major LAN
2015-06-28 18:38
not really the same but i will do one of these for all of the playoff series for esl esea, assuming teams have history of playing each other
2015-06-28 18:48
#21
allu | 
Finland Fherrera 
+1
2015-06-28 18:52
Are any of the new statistical features that you posted on that article going to be featured any time soon ?
2015-06-28 18:58
Awesome man, your brain & CS are a match made in heaven :D
2015-06-28 18:59
nice
2015-06-28 19:00
This is a job for the event crew. Are you payed by them? If not why do you do this? Will they ad this site because of that?
2015-06-28 19:18
I imagine he has to make a certain amount of content for a certain amount of money and he is good at making these articles so why not do them?
2015-06-28 19:36
it's a job for the world's biggest and best counter-strike coverage site, which happens to be hltv.org
2015-06-28 19:37
#57
Twistzz | 
Latvia `DinGo 
:D well said
2015-06-28 19:46
The thing is you were fully supportive of ESEA being tough towards teams with their problems with scheduling and ddos. You said it will elevate level of organization in teams. You were right. It helped so why not do the same with hosts? Now they are like a joke and instead forcing them to improve you help them "for free" by giving ready pre show content.... I know it makes more clicks for hltv but also it makes hosts very lazy and happy with their low level of organization. Dont give them anything or at least take money or ad space for that.
2015-06-28 19:48
not sure you realize what the job of coverage sites is, versus what the job of events is.
2015-06-28 20:27
Very easy game for NiP, they are finally getting in shape like they was before.
2015-06-28 18:38
#11
 | 
Vietnam yolesnoobs 
i'm not so sure :(
2015-06-28 18:41
#12
s1mple | 
Turkey Hemta1 
The dream. lol'd
2015-06-28 18:42
Don't worry, I'm sure space soldiers will crack the top 200 sometime this year kebab boy.
2015-06-28 19:22
#64
 | 
Finland SLOTHEYY 
Piter top kek Kappa
2015-06-28 20:32
Who does Finalnd have? Joelz the lan dodger?
2015-06-28 21:31
#66
 | 
Finland SLOTHEYY 
3dmax/encore was at the last major? Pls l2p.
2015-06-28 21:46
ok
2015-06-28 18:38
Ahah lurppis, i'm pretty sure you were scared that dignitas won this match because it means you had write this for nothing :D
2015-06-28 18:39
i only started writing after dignitas lost, didn't want to risk it
2015-06-28 18:47
ahah smart move :D
2015-06-28 20:24
kick this smithzzzz at last...
2015-06-28 18:40
GOD ALLU all positive rating
2015-06-28 18:43
When NiP loose allu is topfraging, when NIP wins he's bottom fraging
2015-06-28 20:02
#14
f0rest | 
Indonesia rareguy 
nice
2015-06-28 18:44
so close
2015-06-28 18:46
#18
NEO | 
Poland LGf 
write BOT ALLU one more time i dare u i double dare u
2015-06-28 18:50
#58
Twistzz | 
Latvia `DinGo 
GOD ALLU
2015-06-28 19:46
summary: envyus will rek
2015-06-28 18:52
#31
f0rest | 
Bulgaria Uberw0w 
summary:not realy no
2015-06-28 19:04
statistics doesn`t prove S... envy ftw
2015-06-28 18:54
they do, very much so, about the past. but not about the future. like i said in the preview, even cutting games off after a certain map creates bias etc, but i felt this was the most appropriate way to do it.
2015-06-28 18:58
past results don't influence future events, which is true if you're gambling. past results do however prove past results
2015-06-28 19:40
IDK why ppl hate so much on lurrpis... every of these statistics i really liked and they were done quite good... lurrpis good job and keep up with these! :)
2015-06-28 19:02
#32
f0rest | 
Bulgaria Uberw0w 
+1
2015-06-28 19:05
watchout, this is a trap from lurpis. He's the worst analyst their can be, dont listen to his craps, go with ur guts
2015-06-28 19:08
#35
Zajda | 
Europe Zajda 
ahahaha
2015-06-28 19:09
This is really interesting...nice job lurppis.
2015-06-28 19:08
NiP win confirmed
2015-06-28 19:13
Really interesting stats. I was wondering Lurppis, would it be possible to look at players stats in detail pre/post specific updates. I would love to see, for example KennyS average post/pre AWP nerf. As well as ScreaM pre/post movement+1tap nerf. This could actually be interesting across teams too, like fnatic pre/post cz75 changes. Or NiP pre/post SMG change for example.
2015-06-28 19:15
NiP ez
2015-06-28 19:20
#47
 | 
Finland jayss 
The thing is that EnvyUs looks now better than in the past month or two.
2015-06-28 19:24
hasnt shox never lost a final against NiP?
2015-06-28 19:26
#49
 | 
Finland jayss 
The last NiP - EnvyUs final was in the first Gfinity event this year(around the end of march) which EnvyUs won convincingly.
2015-06-28 19:30
Nope,won DHwinter,Won MLG aspen,won Gfinity Sprin Masters. will win Gfinity Summer as well.
2015-06-28 21:49
thats what i meant my indian friend
2015-06-28 21:59
loss loss WIN loss loss WIN. it's almost rhythmic
2015-06-28 19:38
Nice oddsway lurppis <3 Thanks for winning me more skins. Conviniently starts the comparison from a time where NV were in a slump,just missing all the rekterino before that.
2015-06-28 21:48
Nice stats but EnVy still 2 stronk
2015-06-29 02:49
nice choke ;)
2015-06-29 02:59
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