fnatic vs. Virtus.pro stats preview

As before, we have put together some statistics to get you ready for the ESL ESEA Pro League Season 1 Finals semi-final between fnatic and Virtus.pro.

In the past three months - a reasonable timeframe for a statistical analysis to keep all the data at least somewhat relevant - fnatic have played a total of six matches, or eleven maps, versus Virtus.pro.

Out of those six matches, the Black and Orange side have won four, while the Poles have prevailed in two - including the grand final of ESEA Invite Season 18 Finals, where they won $70,000.


pronax's fnatic take on Virtus.pro tomorrow 

In terms of maps, Filip "NEO" Kubski's side have won just three maps against Olof "olofmeister" Kajbjer's eight - a clear advantage in favor of the Swedes, whose results outside of the series are better as well.

Looking at more recent results the picture gets even darker for Virtus, who have lost six straight maps to fnatic, their last win coming nearly two months ago on May 5 on de_cobblestone.

Date Team Score Team Map Event
Jun 23 Sweden fnatic 16-12 Poland Virtus.pro de_overpass FACEIT
Jun 18 Sweden fnatic 16-2 Poland Virtus.pro de_cobblestone ESL ESEA
May 17 Sweden fnatic 19-16 Poland Virtus.pro de_dust2 Gfinity Spring II
May 17 Sweden fnatic 16-9 Poland Virtus.pro de_cache Gfinity Spring II
May 17 Sweden fnatic 16-10 Poland Virtus.pro de_cobblestone Gfinity Spring II
May 5 Sweden fnatic 16-5 Poland Virtus.pro de_cache Game Show
May 5 Sweden fnatic 7-16 Poland Virtus.pro de_cobblestone Game Show
May 5 Sweden fnatic 19-15 Poland Virtus.pro de_mirage Game Show
Apr 19 Sweden fnatic 13-16 Poland Virtus.pro de_cache ESEA S18 Finals
Apr 19 Sweden fnatic 16-9 Poland Virtus.pro de_inferno ESEA S18 Finals
Apr 7 Sweden fnatic 6-16 Poland Virtus.pro de_mirage FACEIT
 
Average Sweden fnatic 14.45-11.45 Poland Virtus.pro    

Having won five more maps, fnatic boast a favorable round differential of exactly three rounds per game, at 14.45 to 11.45. Not a huge difference, but noticeable nonetheless.

When it comes to maps, Virtus.pro do not possess a lead on any of the six maps these teams have faced each other on in the past three months. However, they are tied on de_mirage.

On the other maps - five in total - fnatic boast one map leads. One of the things that makes this series interesting is the fact neither team has maps they always veto.

Both fnatic and Virtus.pro are known to play all the maps in the pool, which is why neither will have a clear advantage in the banning phase - thus making for a better match-up.

Wins per map Sweden fnatic Poland Virtus.pro
de_cache 2 1
de_cobblestone 2 1
de_dust2 1 -
de_inferno 1 -
de_mirage 1 1
de_overpass 1 -
Total 8 3

Next we have put together player statistics for all the eleven qualifying maps these teams have faced each other on. Notably fnatic have won more of them, leading to better statistics.

First thing to point ous is that olofmeister - arguably the world's best player right now - hasn't been very effective in their head-to-head match-ups against Virtus.pro.

The best performer from fnatic has been Jesper "JW" Wecksell, who is one of three players - all from fnatic - to possess a higher rating in the series versus Virtus.pro than in the past three months.

In Virtus.pro NEO has been the biggest underperformer in the matches against fnatic - compared to their ratings for the past three months - with a rating differential of -0.23.

Looking at fnatic's eight map wins, practically nothing has changed. In fact, all ten players - in each team - are in the exact same order, as sorted by rating, in these maps.

The largest underperformer has once again been NEO, whose importance to the team has increased in correlation to Jarosław "pashaBiceps" Jarząbkowski's decline.

Despite beating pashaBiceps in one-on-one duels streamed on Twitch, olofmeister continues his struggles, even in fnatic's wins - showing he hasn't been a key player in this particular series.

In Virtus.pro's three lonely wins we finally see some changes in the pecking order for both teams. For the Poles, both Janusz "Snax" Pogorzelski and NEO improved their stance within the squad.

On fnatic, the statistics have seemingly gone mad with in-game leader Markus "pronax" Wallsten on top of the scoreboard, follower by Robin "flusha" Rönnquist, and the team's best player at the very bottom.

It's obvious eliminating the effect of fnatic's best players is key to Virtus.pro's victories, and it hardly seems surprising that you cannot beat a tier one team with pronax as your top fragger.

A comparison of all ten players' ratings in their wins and losses confirms the observation, with fnatic's JW and olofmeister as the sole clear overperformers in wins.

Other players above the average have been Paweł "byali" Bieliński, NEO, Snax and Freddy "KRIMZ" Johansson.

Fittingly the only two players clearly below the mean value have been each team's weakest fraggers - pronax and Wiktor "TaZ" Wojtas - with flusha not far behind.

Player Wins Losses Differential
Sweden Jesper "JW" Wecksell 1.29 0.72 +0.57
Sweden Olof "olofmeister" Kajbjer 1.15 0.69 +0.46
Poland Paweł "byali" Bieliński 1.31 0.90 +0.41
Poland Filip "NEO" Kubski 1.13 0.72 +0.41
Poland Janusz "Snax" Pogorzelski 1.23 0.83 +0.40
Sweden Freddy "KRIMZ" Johansson 1.19 0.79 +0.40
Poland Jarosław "pashaBiceps" Jarząbkowski 1.23 0.85 +0.38
Sweden Robin "flusha" Rönnquist 1.16 0.86 +0.30
Poland Wiktor "TaZ" Wojtas 1.05 0.80 +0.25
Sweden Markus "pronax" Wallsten 0.95 0.88 +0.07
Average +0.37

So far at this tournament Virtus.pro have arguably looked better, but it could also be a case of having a smaller sample size, and weaker opponents, benefitting them in this regard.

Though fnatic have an unmatchable record in $250,000 tournaments, Virtus.pro are also a team who seem to elevate their level of play when there's a lot at stake, such as this weekend.

Each team has a different approach to the game, yet neither has a weak map they always remove, and both teams seem to play better when there is more at stake.

fnatic will face off with Virtus.pro tomorrow at roughly 19:20, or soon after the first semi-final of CLG versus Cloud9 at ESL ESEA Pro League Season 1 Finals in Cologne.

Follow HLTV.org's @lurppis_ on Twitter.

Poland Wiktor 'TaZ' Wojtas
Wiktor 'TaZ' Wojtas
Age:
33
Team:
Rating 1.0:
0.98
Maps played:
1789
KPR:
0.67
DPR:
0.67
APR:
0.13
Sweden Olof 'olofmeister' Kajbjer
Olof 'olofmeister' Kajbjer
Age:
27
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.08
Maps played:
1336
KPR:
0.74
DPR:
0.65
APR:
0.13
Poland Filip 'NEO' Kubski
Filip 'NEO' Kubski
Age:
32
Team:
No team
Rating 1.0:
0.97
Maps played:
1681
KPR:
0.66
DPR:
0.67
APR:
0.17
Sweden Freddy 'KRIMZ' Johansson
Freddy 'KRIMZ' Johansson
Age:
25
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.06
Maps played:
1377
KPR:
0.71
DPR:
0.63
APR:
0.15
Sweden Markus 'pronax' Wallsten
Markus 'pronax' Wallsten
Age:
28
Team:
No team
Rating 1.0:
0.89
Maps played:
1199
KPR:
0.60
DPR:
0.67
APR:
0.14
Poland Janusz 'Snax' Pogorzelski
Janusz 'Snax' Pogorzelski
Age:
26
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.04
Maps played:
1604
KPR:
0.70
DPR:
0.66
APR:
0.13
Sweden Jesper 'JW' Wecksell
Jesper 'JW' Wecksell
Age:
24
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.06
Maps played:
1606
KPR:
0.74
DPR:
0.68
APR:
0.14
Poland Paweł 'byali' Bieliński
Paweł 'byali' Bieliński
Age:
25
Team:
No team
Rating 1.0:
1.02
Maps played:
1449
KPR:
0.70
DPR:
0.67
APR:
0.14
Poland Jarosław 'pashaBiceps' Jarząbkowski
Jarosław 'pashaBiceps' Jarząbkowski
Age:
31
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.02
Maps played:
1592
KPR:
0.72
DPR:
0.69
APR:
0.13
Sweden Robin 'flusha' Rönnquist
Robin 'flusha' Rönnquist
Age:
26
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.07
Maps played:
1511
KPR:
0.73
DPR:
0.65
APR:
0.18
#1
United Kingdom -Joe 
nice :)
2015-07-04 01:21
#3
Iraq Jfm 
wow first sik
2015-07-04 01:22
#62
 | 
Poland enterq18 
VP rly hate play against fnatic i guess ;D
2015-07-04 07:35
#71
Germany R3cn 
-pronax +byali
2015-07-04 10:55
why is pasha n/a
2015-07-04 01:25
Just another lie by lurpiss. Also look at this pearl :D "weaker opponents," which is c9 for VP and CLG for fnatic so according to lurpiss CLG>C9 just because clg was facing fnatic and c9 vp. Lmao. This kid is crazy!
2015-07-04 01:47
Why are you such a liar, if we watched the same tournament you will know that VP played LG and C9 while Fnatic played CLG and TSM. CLG > LG and TSM > C9 so Fnatic did play harder teams, but nice try lying about it to trick us, we're not that stupid
2015-07-04 05:07
C9>clg C9>keyd keyd>tsm clg>fnatic C9 3:0ed envyus. do your math mate.
2015-07-04 12:02
If fnatic had won they would have played CLG and Keyd, both ez teams, but they lost. If VP had won they would have played LG and nV but they didn't so they got C9.
2015-07-04 13:04
If... if... if... Also VP did win so don't know what you're on about
2015-07-04 13:27
Total waste of time. Also why does lurppis lie about ESEA finals? It was bo3 and VP won 2-1. Why did lurppis hide this 1st map from this final? HLTV was better without Lurppis. This finnish kid is pathetic with his fnatic fanboism. He even lies about results in his "articles". "fnatic had played a total of six matches, or eleven maps, versus Virtus.pro. Out of those six matches the Black and Orange side have won four, while the Poles have prevailed in two" (c) lurpiss How much did you get to lie by not mentioning VP's victories over fnatic? Also in his magasine 1337 they wrote fnatic was 3rd at DHW14. Crazy shit.
2015-07-04 01:37
#17
flusha | 
Europe An0n0n 
They had 1 map advantage because they came from upper bracket....
2015-07-04 01:31
You lie too. Wtf? hltv.org/?pageid=188&matchid=20394&event.. so what is this? nothing just because fnatic lost? Lmao. HLTV is worst with every week.
2015-07-04 01:33
No, the final was 2x bo3, with VP having to win only one bo3 because they came from the upper bracket. It only shows 2 maps because he doesn't include Season, as it's not in the map pool.
2015-07-04 01:33
I'm pretty sure the final was BO5 with VP having 1 map advantage... I was 2x BO3 in S17.
2015-07-04 10:20
You're wrong. VP won season, then fnatic won inferno, then VP won cache.
2015-07-04 11:42
Yeah, so if it was a BO5, with VP getting a 1 map advantage to start since they came from the winners bracket, the score's 3-1 to VP and they won... In S17 it was 2x BO3 with VP having one BO3 advantage and fnatic won 2 BO3 and they won ;)
2015-07-04 15:19
Pls get your facts straight. Both s17 and s18 had 2xbo3 final. Vp needed to win one and fnatic two. Vp won first bo3 2-1 winning season and cache losing on inferno. Look for some facts before you start writing bullshit.
2015-07-04 15:31
I just meant that you're argument was retarded, since it fits both formats... So learn some logic and comprehensive reading before you decide to call out others for your retardation...
2015-07-04 15:43
It was not a Bo5 for fucks sake,whats wrong with you ? Normal Bo3 games.
2015-07-04 18:35
What's wrong with me? I'm unable to comprehend how stupid can people be to call others out for their own stupidity aka lack of logic and comprehensive reading... Do I have to explain every single word's meaning for you to get the point or will it not affect your brainlessness?
2015-07-05 00:32
Lurppis only counts maps currently in the map pool.
2015-07-04 01:32
Learn to read. Lurpiss lies! "In the past three months - a reasonable timeframe for a statistical analysis to keep all the data at least somewhat relevant - fnatic had played a total of six matches, or eleven maps, versus Virtus.pro." Anyway his previews are totally useless as he value meaningless games, show matches and 100k final the same.
2015-07-04 01:38
Lurppis is right to not include maps if they aren't in the current pool, because they have no value. If VP has an advantage on Season, it's irrelevant because it can't be played here.
2015-07-04 01:38
Learn to read you moron. It is about lying about results between fnatic and VP in last 3 months. Not about maps. He lies and this is a fact. The question is why he and his workmates always lie only by giving fnatic undeserved credit for made up "achievements". Also your argument is stupid as it doesnt show the whole picture. Manipulated stats without context are good only to sway odds.
2015-07-04 01:43
Dude y r u so mad
2015-07-04 03:58
Yeah. I was ignoring ignorance for long time but recently it has become so big i had enough and I have decided to step up and be the voice of reason. I will expose cases of lying and extraordinary cases of stupidity. This "news" was the straw that broke the camel's back.
2015-07-04 04:13
plz stop this retardism and use your knowladge for something good, write an article or blog, and make it better than lurpiss :D!!
2015-07-04 05:07
Dude. Please stop making my kind look stupid. As I always like to think in a situation you are in: let a fool waste his time defending himself, while the true winner need not be defensive as he knows he has truly won, therefore, not needing to say anything...just thinking he is right is good enough. In other words, quit being a bitch and just be quiet about it. If you're right, you only need to respond to one. People will read it and think what they want. Stop trying to drag your statistical viewpoints into everyone else's opinions; that's not how it works.
2015-07-04 08:40
By the way, that kid is Polish and not Korean.
2015-07-04 15:00
That really wouldn't surprise me. Edit: Why does he choose South Korea as his flag? To make him look smart? It's really not working. Edit 2: Thanks for the info though :)
2015-07-04 20:30
Gameshow league is not a showmatch u know?
2015-07-04 11:42
there is no de_season in the map pool here, hence the result is irrelevant, just like the three maps fnatic won with schneider playing. as for your claim about 1337 magazine, can't really comment on what happens there - i only submit one column a month.
2015-07-04 16:57
It doesnt change the fact you still lie to put fnatic in a better light.
2015-07-04 17:54
i haven't lied anywhere, sorry.
2015-07-04 17:55
"In the past three months - a reasonable timeframe for a statistical analysis to keep all the data at least somewhat relevant - fnatic have played a total of six matches, or eleven maps, versus Virtus.pro." They played 12. Blatant lie by you. "i haven't lied anywhere, sorry." And another lie.
2015-07-04 18:12
So he was wrong there, big deal. Season doesn't matter because they couldn't play it here. This is trying to predict the outcome if you pay attention.
2015-07-05 01:45
Easy for ', wi'
2015-07-04 01:22
first
2015-07-04 01:22
Ez for fnatic
2015-07-04 01:25
:)
2015-07-04 01:22
interesting
2015-07-04 01:22
will be very hard for vp tbh i will be suprised if they will take atleast 1 map
2015-07-04 01:23
#8
NEO | 
Poland koperek 
ez for N/A
2015-07-04 01:23
VP
2015-07-04 01:24
pasha N/A XD
2015-07-04 01:25
well written lurppis :)
2015-07-04 01:26
Probably a 2-0 for Fnatic. Also, a typo I noticed: "fnatic boast a favorably round differential" Minor thing, but I assume it was meant to be "favorable"
2015-07-04 01:30
No their differential is round like Flusha's tummy, which is favourable
2015-07-04 05:09
No, it should say "fnatic boost"
2015-07-04 05:26
Fnatic they are in the form of. But i think fnatic win 2-1 map
2015-07-04 01:31
#21
 | 
Poland Madziula 
So statistics show that tomorrow it will be ez win for fnatic. Good that CS is not all about statistics. GO VP, crush them sweds <3
2015-07-04 01:33
In stats VP>fnatic. Lurpiss is just a crazy mad fnatic fankid.
2015-07-04 01:48
rootin for poles
2015-07-04 01:53
Neo exposed
2015-07-04 02:01
For me just stats. What u say about NA teams stats and previews? So far so good, they are now in semifinals. So.. for me, VP will take this. Fnatic is not in their best perform in this event.
2015-07-04 02:21
, wi
2015-07-04 02:55
should be some great games
2015-07-04 03:15
Virtus showed some good results so far at the finals. They can definitely win.
2015-07-04 03:19
nice read as always
2015-07-04 03:28
go vp, win smth finally vs fnatgic ;p
2015-07-04 03:40
Inb4 fnatic stomp. This comes down to a lot of fast plays and mid round calls. Fnatic just has better aim and a better caller :)
2015-07-04 04:00
thanks lurp
2015-07-04 04:06
VP looks like they're feeling it this tourney. Fnatic was two rounds away from being sent home in dead last Polska strongk mouselifterz wrongk
2015-07-04 04:08
+1
2015-07-04 04:13
Two rounds away from being sent to home, against second best team in the world. fnatic will win this tournament, you will see
2015-07-04 10:15
lel TSM second best team in the world. kappa
2015-07-04 10:48
ofc not tsm, LGB number 2
2015-07-04 11:33
vp are just gonna get utterly raped
2015-07-04 05:08
VP 2 : 0 fnatic
2015-07-04 05:21
does anybody know where POV VODs could be watched?
2015-07-04 05:24
twitch.tv/esl_pov1 twitch.tv/esl_pov2
2015-07-04 06:17
2015-07-04 06:20
#68
 | 
United States phuckily 
isn't lurpiss the guy that said that TSM and fnatic were going to beat KeyD and CLG in the groups? at least this guy is reliable amirite???
2015-07-04 10:21
implying everyone wasn't predicting the same
2015-07-04 11:01
sorry, i think something has been wrong with my magic eight ball lately
2015-07-04 11:18
hahaha rekt n1
2015-07-04 11:45
Pretty much 99% of the people following the pro scene thought the same thing.
2015-07-04 12:38
Fnatic in this tournament isn't in good form, so VP are favorite for me.
2015-07-04 10:38
So this is bo3. I know they VETO 1 map each, and then choose 1 map each, but how is it decided who´s map they are playing first :) ?
2015-07-04 10:56
Pretty sure coin flip winner bans first and picks first So its random.
2015-07-04 11:57
Best player right now Olofmeister ? Xd ScreaM
2015-07-04 11:29
GO VP
2015-07-04 11:44
'Despite beating Jarz&#261;bkowski in one-on-one duels streamed on Twitch, Kajbjer continues his struggles, even in fnatic's wins' loled, 1.15 Rating struggle
2015-07-04 12:15
For olofmeisters standards yes ;)
2015-07-04 13:36
#86
ptr | 
Poland EvilMack 
dis gon b gud
2015-07-04 12:25
Too bad that my 2 favorite teams couldn't play each other in the grand final instead. :( I hope the team who wins this semi wins the whole tournament at least.
2015-07-04 12:39
Good luck.
2015-07-04 12:54
GO GO VP
2015-07-04 15:00
VP always gets cockblocked by fnatic, they just always seem to choke against them so much it makes me want to close the stream. Hope they don't fuck up today cuz it's tiring to watch my fav team getting rekt by fnatic in every match.
2015-07-04 15:33
Vp always got a good chance against fnatic when they play their topgame, hopefully VP will bring it so we get a fun match.
2015-07-04 15:37
TAZ on preview picture 4Head
2015-07-04 16:36
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