FACEIT Major quarter-finals preview - part 1

Professeur
September 19th, 2018 23:30

With the playoffs of the FACEIT London Major ahead of us, we took a look at Thursday's matchups, analyzing each team's chances to advance in the bracket.

The quarter-finals are split into two days, with two BO3s taking place per day. Starting off the action will be BIG and Natus Vincere, setting up a rematch of the ESL One Cologne grand final, with compLexity and MIBR taking the stage after them.

The duel of two veteran in-game leaders, Zeus and gob b, and two rosters based in North America, compLexity and MIBR, provide a lot of talking points and interesting storylines, so we will, for now, focus on the first two quarter-finals. The preview for Friday's matches will be released separately, on Thursday.

Ratings used are from the FACEIT Major New Legends Stage
Thursday, 16:15
BIG  Rating   Natus Vincere Rating
United Kingdom smooya  1.54   Russia electronic  1.44
Germany tabseN  1.27   Ukraine s1mple 1.42
Germany nex 1.21 vs. Russia flamie 1.28
Germany gob b 1.10   Ukraine Zeus 1.01
Germany tiziaN 0.95   Ukraine Edward 0.81
Germany LEGIJA (coach)   Ukraine Kane (coach)
EGB odds: 6.68   EGB odds: 4.44

BIG facing off against Natus Vincere is a tasty prospect for Counter-Strike fans, as the two teams have a vastly different set of strengths and weaknesses. The Ukrainian-Russian squad relies on s1mple and electronic, a one-two punch combo that has this year looked as the deadliest duo out there. flamie has been able to contribute well, despite taking a step back to free up electronic around DreamHack Masters Marseille. Spicing things up are Zeus' risky calls, such as relentless force buys as T and gamble stacking as CT, both helping them win some otherwise unwinnable rounds.

A stark contrast is BIG, who rely on doing the fundamentals as well as they can be done, playing the "gob b brand Counter-Strike". Utility is key; every flash, smoke, HE and molotov must be used with a specific purpose and in an optimal manner. That reflects in their Flash Assists, which BIG secure twice as often as Natus Vincere do: 0.34 to 0.16, looking at LAN stats in 2018. However, it is not like BIG don't have strong individual players: the form of smooya, who is the best rated of the tournament so far (excluding the New Challengers Stage) at 1.54, as well as of tabseN and nex, makes BIG a team who can hold their own against Natus Vincere.

BIG should get Dust2 in the veto, but Na`Vi won't be too troubled about it

Map pool wise, we certainly won't see Cache or Mirage, the two teams' permabans, being played, with BIG most certainly picking Dust2. The map has been a staple for gob b and historically a good one for German teams, while Natus Vincere have lost on it all six times they have played it with this roster. On paper, it seems like a free map win for BIG, but don't be quick to dismiss Natus Vincere—almost all of their losses have been fairly close and it feels like they could turn it around on the map soon. Going for Overpass seems like the obvious pick for Zeus, but BIG's 36% win rate on Inferno could make that the better option in the end. So even though they have a weak Dust2, Natus Vincere look good to take the win on any of the remaining maps that come up in the veto.

The last time these two teams met, in Cologne, BIG contested Natus Vincere throughout the BO5, until the action moved to Inferno, where nex fell off and finished the map with a 4-20 score. This time around, BIG have more confidence in their play and gob b has had a lot of time to prepare for this opponent, but Natus Vincere still have a style of play that will prove hard for them to counter. s1mple and co. were title contenders going into the event, and in their games so far (14-16 Astralis, 16-12 FaZe, 16-6 NiP, 16-9 fnatic), we haven't seen anything to disprove it. The quarter-final game against BIG surely won't be an easy one, but Na`Vi should have all of the ingredients to make it past them and go for a deep run in London.

Ratings used are from the FACEIT Major New Legends Stage
Thursday, 19:45
compLexity  Rating   MIBR Rating
Canada stanislaw  1.42   Brazil FalleN  1.20
United States ShahZaM  1.40   Brazil coldzera 1.18
Canada ANDROID 1.34 vs. United States tarik 1.09
United States yay 1.30   Brazil fer 1.00
United Kingdom dephh 1.16   United States Stewie2K 0.95
United States Rambo (coach)  

Serbia YNk (coach)

EGB odds: 14.15   EGB odds: 10.70


They had been counted out in the New Challengers Stage and they were counted out in the New Legends Stage. Still, compLexity made it to the playoffs, losing only one game along the way - to Astralis. They have also had their main players perform admirably—ShahZaM, ANDROID and yay all have ratings higher than 1.30 from the last three games they played. All of that seems great, but there are many asterisks to be taken into account and potential pitfalls this North American squad must avoid as they step on to the stage of the Major and face MIBR, a team full of Major winners.

So let's start with the run they had to get to this point. compLexity beat BIG twice, which is a respectable feat, but other than that the teams they took down since the New Challengers Stage didn't really look all that good. They beat: Space Soldiers, who were playing with a coach, Vega Squadron only after overtime, a fnatic side who ended up being pretty poor overall and G2, who weren't impressive either. It is true that you can only beat the team that is ahead of you and that no one can take compLexity's achievements away from them, but this simply isn't a run that can convince us that they will fare well in the playoffs.

This is the stage of the tournament where a player like coldzera shows his true colors

Their New Legends Stage statistics are also unsustainable, with four players sitting on obscenely-high ratings, while team-wise, they secured 1.11 multikills per round and won 56.3% of rounds in which they had a 4v5 disadvantage. Even if the tournament continued to be played behind closed doors, these numbers wouldn't be kept up, but the fact that they are stepping into a 10,000 people arena, on a stage the likes of which yay, ANDROID and dephh have never played on, makes it even harder to believe compLexity will continue their streak.

With all of these question marks, the MIBR side of things almost doesn't matter in this matchup. The Brazilian-American team has its issues and is far from a polished unit, but they have so much more experience and are a team that tends to rise to the occasion, while compLexity have all the makings of one that will sink under pressure. Just looking at the squads, each of MIBR's members has won at least one Major, while stanislaw is the only player on the opposite side with some notable Big Event achievements.

With FalleN's AWPing on point again, coldzera putting up good numbers as always and fer's bloodlust activated by any sign of fear, this game looks seems like the one where compLexity's run ends, forcing them to settle for gaining experience, which will prove extremely valuable as the season goes on.

Brazil Marcelo 'coldzera' David
Marcelo 'coldzera' David
Age:
23
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.21
Maps played:
895
KPR:
0.81
DPR:
0.60
APR:
0.12
United Kingdom Rory 'dephh' Jackson
Rory 'dephh' Jackson
Age:
26
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.01
Maps played:
605
KPR:
0.72
DPR:
0.72
APR:
0.16
United States Jaccob 'yay' Whiteaker
Jaccob 'yay' Whiteaker
Age:
20
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.05
Maps played:
421
KPR:
0.74
DPR:
0.71
APR:
0.14
United States Shahzeb 'ShahZaM' Khan
Shahzeb 'ShahZaM' Khan
Age:
25
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.09
Maps played:
793
KPR:
0.74
DPR:
0.65
APR:
0.10
United Kingdom Owen 'smooya' Butterfield
Owen 'smooya' Butterfield
Age:
19
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.19
Maps played:
273
KPR:
0.81
DPR:
0.66
APR:
0.11
Germany Fatih 'gob b' Dayik
Fatih 'gob b' Dayik
Age:
31
Team:
Rating 1.0:
0.85
Maps played:
842
KPR:
0.57
DPR:
0.67
APR:
0.13
United States Tarik 'tarik' Celik
Tarik 'tarik' Celik
Age:
22
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.07
Maps played:
960
KPR:
0.74
DPR:
0.67
APR:
0.15
Canada Bradley 'ANDROID' Fodor
Bradley 'ANDROID' Fodor
Age:
24
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.04
Maps played:
615
KPR:
0.71
DPR:
0.67
APR:
0.13
Russia Denis 'electronic' Sharipov
Denis 'electronic' Sharipov
Age:
20
Rating 1.0:
1.11
Maps played:
636
KPR:
0.77
DPR:
0.67
APR:
0.14
Germany Johannes 'nex' Maget
Johannes 'nex' Maget
Age:
26
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.10
Maps played:
883
KPR:
0.76
DPR:
0.66
APR:
0.16
United States Jake 'Stewie2K' Yip
Jake 'Stewie2K' Yip
Age:
20
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.06
Maps played:
858
KPR:
0.74
DPR:
0.69
APR:
0.14
Ukraine Mikhaylo 'Kane' Blagin
Mikhaylo 'Kane' Blagin
Age:
-
Team:
No team
Rating 1.0:
0.43
Maps played:
3
KPR:
0.29
DPR:
0.82
APR:
0.09
Germany Johannes 'tabseN' Wodarz
Johannes 'tabseN' Wodarz
Age:
23
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.05
Maps played:
1091
KPR:
0.74
DPR:
0.71
APR:
0.16
Ukraine Ioann 'Edward' Sukhariev
Ioann 'Edward' Sukhariev
Age:
30
Rating 1.0:
1.01
Maps played:
1238
KPR:
0.70
DPR:
0.67
APR:
0.13
Germany Tizian 'tiziaN' Feldbusch
Tizian 'tiziaN' Feldbusch
Age:
22
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.01
Maps played:
908
KPR:
0.68
DPR:
0.66
APR:
0.14
Ukraine Danylo 'Zeus' Teslenko
Danylo 'Zeus' Teslenko
Age:
31
Rating 1.0:
0.93
Maps played:
1252
KPR:
0.64
DPR:
0.69
APR:
0.17
Brazil Gabriel 'FalleN' Toledo
Gabriel 'FalleN' Toledo
Age:
27
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.09
Maps played:
941
KPR:
0.71
DPR:
0.59
APR:
0.11
Russia Egor 'flamie' Vasilyev
Egor 'flamie' Vasilyev
Age:
21
Rating 1.0:
1.06
Maps played:
1066
KPR:
0.73
DPR:
0.67
APR:
0.14
Serbia Janko 'YNk' Paunović
Janko 'YNk' Paunović
Age:
26
Team:
No team
Rating 1.0:
0.98
Maps played:
108
KPR:
0.69
DPR:
0.70
APR:
0.13
Brazil Fernando 'fer' Alvarenga
Fernando 'fer' Alvarenga
Age:
26
Team:
Rating 1.0:
1.11
Maps played:
937
KPR:
0.77
DPR:
0.68
APR:
0.16
Germany Nikola 'LEGIJA' Ninić
Nikola 'LEGIJA' Ninić
Age:
28
Team:
No team
Rating 1.0:
0.92
Maps played:
834
KPR:
0.64
DPR:
0.70
APR:
0.14
United States Ronald 'Rambo' Kim
Ronald 'Rambo' Kim
Age:
-
Team:
No team
Rating 1.0:
0.00
Maps played:
0
KPR:
0.00
DPR:
0.00
APR:
0.00
Canada Peter 'stanislaw' Jarguz
Peter 'stanislaw' Jarguz
Age:
24
Team:
Rating 1.0:
0.99
Maps played:
781
KPR:
0.67
DPR:
0.66
APR:
0.15
Ukraine Aleksandr 's1mple' Kostyliev
Aleksandr 's1mple' Kostyliev
Age:
21
Rating 1.0:
1.22
Maps played:
885
KPR:
0.85
DPR:
0.67
APR:
0.11
#1
 | 
Czech Republic PaYaB 
Worst major
2018-09-19 23:33
Signed up 28-1-2018 xD bro u just saw 1 before haha
2018-09-19 23:35
Yes, because as soon as someone starts watching/playing CSGO they sign up for HLTV.
2018-09-19 23:42
Always a year before starting...
2018-09-19 23:46
prove it or I'll...
2018-09-19 23:59
#93
sergej | 
Other Tyload 
U FBI agent
2018-09-20 08:59
FACEIT Major QuarterFinals Teams Analysis! compLexity Style: Tactical and old school, use the lurker quite frequently and have very collective and rehearsed plays; Weakness: Lack of experience in Majors; Quality: Map Pool for MD3 and great variation. MiBR Style: Methodical, slow and unpredictable; Weakness: Short training time to structure the map pool; Quality: Experience, line-up champion of Major and high growth in playoffs. BIG Style: Extremely tactical and counts on the individual of Owen "smooya" Butterfield in freestyle; Weakness: Inconsistency; Quality: Map Pool extensive and a strong individual game in clutches situations. Natus Vincere Style: Methodical and aggressive; Weakness: Depends greatly on the individual talent of Oleksandr "s1mple" Kostyliev and a good game of Denis "electronic" Sharipov; Quality: Just have two monsters in the team, like s1mple and electronic. Astralis Style: Tactical, creative and unpredictable; Weakness: Against creative teams, they end up being easily surprised; Quality: Creativity, extensive map pool, good use of grenades and the best rounds reading today. FaZe Style: Fast, aggressive and intimidating; Weakness: They do not know how to deal with teams that do not fight in their domains; Quality: It has the team with the most skills in the world, where all five athletes can reverse rounds, even at great disadvantages. Liquid Style: Unpredictable, disciplined and versatile; Weakness: Players flounder at critical times; Quality: Very strong momentum, absurd evolution, very strong map pool and a completely unpredictable game. HellRaisers Style: Methodical and aggressive; Weakness: Depends very much on the individual talent of Issa "ISSAA" Murad and Özgür "woxic" Eker; Quality: It has a collective work done with decency in the last months, providing great evolution of the team, besides having two decisive players like w0xic and ISSAA
2018-09-20 03:19
#103
steel | 
New Zealand TEEZY 
wtf is that logic
2018-09-20 10:23
+1 lmao
2018-09-19 23:46
#33
 | 
Czech Republic PaYaB 
hahaha lmao someone signed for forum site at the begining of this year lmao rofl lul xd and what is the point?
2018-09-20 00:18
#43
 | 
Russia NOD777 
Hahahahahaha the point
2018-09-20 01:29
lolololololol jajajajaj the point
2018-09-20 03:06
#61
coldzera | 
Brazil LordQ 
nt prokda
2018-09-20 03:21
#39
 | 
United States ImFat 
Even if he signed up in 2016 he still hasn't seen enough of them to say which is the worst.
2018-09-20 01:08
No, he has. PGL Krakow was easily the worst one. Nt tho
2018-09-20 06:37
DId you forget Cluj?
2018-09-20 06:45
Cluj wasnt as bad as pgl krakow.
2018-09-20 06:46
Why you think that? I mean besides the horrible performances by the teams. Actual production & viewer experience wasnt that bad. (Besides this whole crowd being kicked out thing)
2018-09-20 06:47
#82
 | 
United States ImFat 
Cluj was way worst than PGL, most boring major imo
2018-09-20 06:56
Most boring? You mean the least predictable major. In terms of boringness, easily ESL Cologne 2016
2018-09-20 06:58
#86
Xyp9x | 
Czech Republic @Puget 
ESL was nice
2018-09-20 07:12
#101
 | 
United States ImFat 
I personally wasn’t invested in that major, i had a lot going on in my life at that time so I couldn’t watch some matches and the ones I did watch seemed like normal matches (Also I’m from NA and no one did that good from here. If I remember right they only one like one or two matches out of 3 teams)
2018-09-20 10:03
#46
 | 
India Jan7Y 
xxxxD
2018-09-20 02:04
Doesn't matter when he signed up. It doesn't change the fact.
2018-09-20 03:47
Guys dont trust gg.bet fkin scam site my withdrawls block after my account block fkin gg.bet
2018-09-20 07:29
2017 acc also questionable
2018-09-20 09:07
nt prokda
2018-09-19 23:42
#53
 | 
Australia weapon_ 
Can only hope navi win.. big is looking in good form..
2018-09-20 03:05
Because mouz still shit XDD
2018-09-20 07:09
Nt prokda
2018-09-20 09:53
#2
acid | 
Finland BillNye 
sweet well done
2018-09-19 23:33
#3
 | 
Brazil Karl_Tanner 
Ez mibr
2018-09-19 23:33
#4
 | 
Serbia toENDallWARS 
gl Astrails bring it home!
2018-09-19 23:33
it's gonna be either them or Liquid. at least 2nd place is guaranteed hahah may the best win!
2018-09-20 00:45
#36
 | 
Brazil Karl_Tanner 
Either mibr or liquid.
2018-09-20 00:52
#64
 | 
India Deathsytch 
Srsly?did you forget the 16-0 win lmao...
2018-09-20 04:17
#66
 | 
Brazil Karl_Tanner 
1 fluke map by Astralis.
2018-09-20 04:22
#67
 | 
India Deathsytch 
Lol
2018-09-20 04:23
nah, mibr is a complete mess.
2018-09-20 05:34
Mibr getting the legends spot is a fluke
2018-09-20 08:18
No because Astralis and Liquid are gonna meet in the semi-final 😢
2018-09-20 02:43
#69
 | 
Brazil Karl_Tanner 
You mean FaZe and Liquid...
2018-09-20 04:29
fuck i didn't see that oh well alright, no 2nd place guaranteed then hahah
2018-09-20 05:32
#5
tarik | 
United States nikolaii 
Nice
2018-09-19 23:33
- edward ffs
2018-09-19 23:34
-edward +h0bbit and Navi win next major 100%
2018-09-20 05:52
Mby adren better
2018-09-20 09:09
#7
 | 
United Kingdom noseapus 
ez complexity
2018-09-19 23:34
Ez navi and complexity
2018-09-19 23:34
#9
 | 
Brazil DREW^GA 
this is major!
2018-09-19 23:34
#28
nex | 
Germany Der_Pabst 
is it?
2018-09-20 00:06
worst
2018-09-19 23:34
#47
 | 
United Kingdom XNL 
You're the worst.
2018-09-20 02:11
expected from smooya and UK scene Robban and olof swedish. nt
2018-09-20 02:14
#49
 | 
United Kingdom XNL 
UK players in Major Quarter Final = 2 Swedish players in Major Quarter Final = 1
2018-09-20 02:19
BRcs>UKcs>Mohammedcs(swedistan)
2018-09-20 04:26
Brazilians at major= 4 Uk's at major= 2 population of brazil= 200 mil population of UK= 65 mil 1 out of 50 million brazilians are at the major 1 out of 30 million Uk's are at the major Therefore, being Uk is better if you want to go to major confirmed
2018-09-20 05:56
#92
 | 
Brazil DREW^GA 
BR WIN 2 MAJOR UK??????????
2018-09-20 08:30
#96
 | 
Sweden lubbev 
1 of 10 million swedes at major. Sweden CS > UK cs
2018-09-20 09:17
#104
 | 
Denmark MeToxi 
6 of 6 million danes at major Danish CS > Swedish CS > UK CS > BR CS
2018-09-20 10:42
#105
 | 
Norway plusdeceit 
1 out of 5 million norwegians 1 out of 3 million bosnians Bosnian cs>norwegian cs>swedish cs
2018-09-20 10:52
BRCS couldnt win esl belo horizonte in their own country lmao
2018-09-20 08:20
where's india on the scene? call ur mate Gandhi
2018-09-20 18:16
face it is trying really hard this major, i respect this. Reminds me somehow of dota, atleast all this work on videos, footage etc
2018-09-19 23:34
who the fuk needs this vidoes footage etc. ppl watch this sh,it game ( wathc i mean launch stream and go play some other games) for free boxes rofl.
2018-09-20 07:04
You are mistaken. A lot of people watch them and I think that's pretty cool
2018-09-20 09:22
#107
shroud | 
Latvia Skym93 
+1
2018-09-20 15:40
All players on BIG have to deliver big time and NaVi has to show some kind of weakness in form, otherwise NaVi will take it.
2018-09-19 23:35
#13
f0rest | 
Brazil davidS_ 
Lets go mibr
2018-09-19 23:35
#14
 | 
United States Trump2020KAG 
Wtf Stan with a 1.42.
2018-09-19 23:35
#29
 | 
Brazil rodrigo0079 
Against fnatic, G2 and BIG
2018-09-20 00:09
#32
 | 
United States Trump2020KAG 
still he was bot with liquid
2018-09-20 00:13
#16
 | 
Denmark Zorrondo 
mibr vs col OMEGALUL wasted spot in semis
2018-09-19 23:41
#70
 | 
Lithuania entyzan 
Means free final for navi
2018-09-20 05:12
So izy to by ma boy Marcelo Godzera David, the best to ever hold a mouse and a keyboard.
2018-09-19 23:41
nowhere close to the top
2018-09-20 00:10
#60
s1mple | 
Poland Hell2k 
1.18 btw hahahaha trash player
2018-09-20 03:21
The best ever in baiting teammates, yes
2018-09-20 08:21
Go BIG
2018-09-19 23:47
interesting
2018-09-19 23:49
#24
 | 
France FanchD 
Ez 4 coL
2018-09-19 23:49
nice pause between the games
2018-09-19 23:53
coL make it to finals vs Liquid E zZzz
2018-09-20 00:05
electronic now is high rated player than bots1mple & more stable
2018-09-20 00:13
#34
roman | 
Germany m0nkkk 
lol all fanboys crying saying "worst major" just bc their teams are shit rn
2018-09-20 00:38
#37
 | 
Brazil rsouzadk 
+1
2018-09-20 00:57
#38
oskarJ | 
Qatar y0fl0w 
2-0 BIG 16:12 dust2 16:14 overpass
2018-09-20 01:02
navi will ez paste big anyway
2018-09-20 01:15
#41
 | 
Europe Autumn7 
Edward 0.81 OMEGALUL
2018-09-20 01:17
#59
s1mple | 
Poland Hell2k 
0.2 worse than IGL lmao his time is over
2018-09-20 03:20
#42
 | 
United States Rambeard 
I believe in coL and they will play well tomorrow.
2018-09-20 01:19
#44
 | 
Czech Republic Not_baiting 
Its not smooya vs simple or tabsen vs electronic Its edward vs tizian
2018-09-20 01:38
ROFL that's so true
2018-09-20 03:20
Coldzera will take the baiting strats into another level in this major
2018-09-20 01:43
I think MIBR got a lucky draw and takes it. But their play is flawed and they will be ousted next round. It was a good run CoL. Big shocks the world and beats NaVi with better strats and team play.
2018-09-20 02:16
#57
s1mple | 
Poland Hell2k 
hahahah nt
2018-09-20 03:20
#52
 | 
Switzerland liyan 
omg
2018-09-20 02:58
#55
s1mple | 
Poland Hell2k 
Edward what a player
2018-09-20 03:19
#63
 | 
Guatemala unb11 
Mibr CoL Inferno 16-11, Train 16-8, cry is free
2018-09-20 04:11
#65
RobbaN | 
Sweden L1ndiz 
I think Liquid or Astralis gonna win this major :)
2018-09-20 04:22
CoL have Rambo. It will definely be a hard game for MIBR
2018-09-20 05:36
Ez for NaVi and mibr
2018-09-20 05:49
Smooya's rating
2018-09-20 06:30
Guys dont trust gg.bet fkin scam site my withdrawls block after my account block fkin gg.bet
2018-09-20 07:18
#97
 | 
India omg_noob 
Ez for liquid
2018-09-20 09:19
#99
rain | 
Norway spinz 
NaVi 2-1 BIG Complexity 2-1 mibr
2018-09-20 09:46
ez for godzera
2018-09-20 10:09
stanislaw's rating ^^
2018-09-20 15:09
#108
 | 
Portugal xxxRUI75xxx 
Ugliest trophy in the history of CSGO majors...
2018-09-20 18:13
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