ECS Season 7 Finals preview

The ECS Season 7 Finals are about to kick off in London, England, with the first GSL group stage matches. We have put together a preview analyzing the competing teams' chances at the $500,000 event.

The ECS is back with the finals of its seventh season, this time with $500,000 on the line. The event will take place in London, where eight teams will play a GSL group stage before four of them move on to the single-elimination playoffs, which will end with the winner being crowned on Sunday.

The event will see Astralis play their first Big Event outside of the BLAST Pro Series circuit since they won the IEM Katowice Major earlier this year, and they will do it as the No.2 ranked team in the world after losing the top spot for the first time in 13 months. Despite some big names in attendance, the event will be marked by the absence of several heavy hitters, including the new No.1 team in the world, Liquid, who could not qualify during the final two weeks of the regular season.

Below you can find EGB.com's betting odds for the event as of June 5th:

Team: Rate (Ratio)
Astralis: 1.508 (59.69%)
MIBR: 6.228 (14.45%)
Vitality: 14.754 (6.10%)
NRG: 20.362 (4.42%)
Ninjas in Pyjamas: 25.862 (3.48%)
North: 33.582 (2.68%)
FURIA: 10.922 (8.24%)
Complexity: 95.754 (0.94%)

Group A

Astralis come to the ECS Season 7 Finals after losing their #1 rank for the first time in over a year, as Liquid were able to usurp the throne after winning IEM Sydney and DreamHack Masters Dallas, with a second place at cs_summit 4 in between. The Danes have played four events since Katowice (the BLAST Pro Series stops in São Paulo, Miami, and Madrid, and the first round of ESL Pro League Europe), and haven't lifted a trophy since the event in Brazil, so the pressure will be on them to show that their calendar management and practice routines will pay off, as another tournament without a win could cast some doubts about the decisions they have made as of late outside of the server.

Still, with teams like Liquid, ENCE, FaZe, or Natus Vincere missing out, the tournament will be lacking a lot of the big names which Astralis have to beat to prove they are still at the top of the food chain and the team to beat. The necessity to prove their worth comes after not being able to show the dominant style they used to display, losing several best-of-ones in Miami, but, more importantly, not being able to beat ENCE in the best-of-three final in Madrid, where the Finns had the upper hand throughout the two-map series.

Astralis are by far the favorites in their group as the only top 5 team in a group that also features Ninjas in Pyjamas (#9), NRG (#10), and FURIA (#11). The Danes will be fancying their chances in the opening clash against the Brazilians despite the fact that Andrei "⁠arT⁠" Piovezan's side are currently in a rich vein of form after placing top-four at DreamHack Masters Dallas. If things to go as they should, Astralis will not have issues making it through Group A, and with Vitality being the only other top 5 team at the tournament, it should be pretty straightforward for Lukas "⁠gla1ve⁠" Rossander’s men, who will be looking to get some playing hours in before they travel to Montpellier for the Pro League Finals, where the best teams in the world will be in contention.

Ninjas in Pyjamas have been in the top 10 since September of 2018 with the exception of one week in February, but they have been unable to find good enough play to be a title contender, as different players have stepped up at different moments. The Ninjas have failed to find a way to squeeze the most out their players’ potential in the big matches, especially as a unit, but still manage to make the playoffs quite consistently, with quarter-final finishes at IEM Katowice, StarSeries i-League Season 7, and IEM Sydney. Their last result, however, was more disparaging, as the Swedes went out in 9-12th place at DreamHack Masters following losses to FaZe and Vitality, albeit with coach Faruk "⁠pita⁠" Pita playing as Dennis "⁠dennis⁠" Edman could not make it out to the tournament in Texas due to problems with his ESTA application.

The ECS Finals, for which Ninjas in Pyjamas qualified as the biggest earner in Europe, will be an important event for the Ninjas, who will be looking to bounce back from Dallas and prove that they can again make it to the playoffs with their whole squad in tow. In a group where Astralis are the favorites, Ninjas in Pyjamas will have stiff opposition from NRG and FURIA, as the three teams are incredibly close in the rankings and any of them could beat the other two on a good day. Their opening match against NRG could prove to be a particularly important one to get everyone on the same page and off to a good start to the tournament.

Fredrik "⁠REZ⁠" Sterner has proven to be a player who can tip the scales when he is in form—although he tends to blow hot and cold—, and Patrik "⁠f0rest⁠" Lindberg has been living a second youth, putting in great numbers day in and day out, but Ninjas in Pyjamas’s fate will rest on the ability of the rest of the team to also show up in close matches against top opposition. If the Ninjas are able to find their groove in London with their starting five once again reunited, they could be a strong contender to add another playoff run under their belt.

Ever since NRG’s meteoric rise last summer, they have been a team waiting to explode into the top 5, but they have never been able to make it there with the exception of a one-week peak at #4. Since adding Tarik "⁠tarik⁠" Celik to the team, NRG have managed to reach the semi-finals several times, but the next step has eluded them despite solid performances from the three young stars on the team, Ethan "⁠Ethan⁠" Arnold, Vincent "⁠Brehze⁠" Cayonte and Tsvetelin "⁠CeRq⁠" Dimitrov.

NRG have found their spot in the rankings to be oscillating between #8 and #11 as of late following the deep runs at StarSeries i-League Season 7, IEM Sydney and cs_summit. Their latest campaign was more ominous, however, as they lost to FURIA in their opening best-of-one at DreamHack Dallas, and, despite beating Cloud9, they were unable to make the playoffs as G2 took them out in a three-map affair in the lower-bracket semi-finals and had to settle for a 9-12th place finish.

Like their opening rivals, Ninjas in Pyjamas, NRG will want to get the bad taste from DreamHack Masters Dallas out of their mouths, but with Astralis expected to win the group, the second place spot will be a fierce battle between two teams that are looking to return to playoff action, and FURIA.

FURIA have been making a slow climb in the rankings, establishing themselves right outside of the top 10, at #11, after the last update. As the youngest team in the top 20, FURIA have been showing more and more promise, raising eyebrows with a semi-final run at DreamHack Masters Dallas, where they beat NRG, fnatic, and Vitality before falling to the tournament’s winners, Liquid. Especially admirable was their Nuke display against the Dallas champions, and even though they were unable to win it, going down 13-16, it took stellar performances by Jonathan "⁠EliGE⁠" Jablonowski and Keith "⁠NAF⁠" Markovic for Liquid to swing the tide in their favour.

Making the playoffs at their first Big Event was no small feat, and FURIA will be looking to repeat that in London, although they may have to do it from the group's lower bracket as they will be going up against tournament favorites, Astralis, in the opening match. After starting to pick up good results, FURIA will face more scrutiny from other teams, who will put in time to find a way to stop the hectic style of the Brazilians, whose adaptability will be put to the test. Another point that remains to be seen is how the team's star players, whose individual playmaking has been an integral part of their success, will fare when their individualities are countered by the Danes' solid chemistry.

Group B

Taking down elite squads and claiming the cs_summit 4 title, combined with a solid placing at DreamHack Masters Dallas, propelled Vitality to the fourth place in the rankings. That makes the French squad the second-highest ranked team at ECS Season 7, behind Astralis in Group A. But they are not a lock-in for a deep run quite yet.

While BO3 wins over Liquid and ENCE in the playoffs of cs_summit cannot be downplayed, Nathan "⁠NBK-⁠" Schmitt and co. didn't follow that up by taking down some particularly strong teams in Dallas. An early loss to North caused Vitality to drop to the lower bracket, where they dispatched three underdogs, Lucid Dream, Ninjas in Pyjamas with pita, and North in the rematch, before being eliminated by FURIA in a one-sided quarter-final match.

Consistent high-level performances from the team's star player, Mathieu "⁠ZywOo⁠" Herbaut, flashes of brilliance from the team's supporting cast—NBK-, Dan "⁠apEX⁠" Madesclaire, and Alex "⁠ALEX⁠" McMeekin—, and an improved map pool were enough for their big success at cs_summit 4, but a repeat of that - or at least some more big wins - is needed before we can conclude whether Vitality truly deserve a top 5 spot.

Topping their group, where only MIBR should pose a significant threat, and perhaps getting revenge on FURIA in the playoffs would be steps in the right direction, but it won't be an easy task, especially when we consider the Frenchmen are going into their third week of back-to-back events and the fatigue will slowly be setting in.

On the other side of the burnout equation is MIBR, who had a month at home following IEM Sydney's conclusion. The Brazilians did still play online in ECS and in the ESL Pro League Season 9 Americas group stage in Los Angeles, but the strain of those competitions is negligible compared to their post-Major schedule, which saw them travel to China, Brazil, China again, back to the US, and finally, Australia.

Getting some much-needed rest and recovery has been reflected in their results: MIBR did drop maps to eUnited, Singularity, and Complexity in the last month but are on a nine-series win streak, with two of those matches having been against Liquid in ECS Season 7.

A resurgence of the team's iconic trio—Marcelo "⁠coldzera⁠" David, Gabriel "⁠FalleN⁠" Toledo, and Fernando "⁠fer⁠" Alvarenga—is also worth noting. The two-time player of the year is once again showing his colors, sitting on a 1.21 LAN rating over the last three months, with the impact of fer and FalleN opening up space for coldzera to flourish. While there are still question marks regarding João "⁠felps⁠" Vasconcellos' role in the team, and Epitacio "⁠TACO⁠" de Melo's individual level has not been inspiring, MIBR are looking to do some serious damage in London.

The data pool on the post-roster change North is quite limited, as is the time that their new IGL, Valdemar "⁠valde⁠" Bjørn Vangså, has had to make the squad run as he wants to. However, it is apparent that some things have improved, such as the individual form of the players we expect to take on star roles.

While Philip "⁠aizy⁠" Aistrup has remained on the level he had displayed while Casper "⁠cadiaN⁠" Møller was still in the squad, it is the invigorated Markus "⁠Kjaerbye⁠" Kjærbye, who boasts a 1.18 rating as well as a 1.21 opening kill ratio over the last month (DHM Dallas, EPL group stage, ESL One Cologne closed qualifier), who instills North fans with optimism about this lineup.

However, it is not all fine and dandy in North's camp. Jakob "⁠JUGi⁠" Hansen has had a couple of great games but still has not shown the level of consistency which is needed from an AWPer, finishing only 56.5% of the maps he played in the last month with a 1.00+ rating. valde's individual level has also plummeted, with the 18th best player of 2018 averaging a mere 1.05 rating since taking over the captaincy.

Two dangerous teams, Vitality and MIBR, stand in the Danes' way to the playoffs, but this tournament is likely to be another one in which North will be more focused on themselves and on improving their game, than on their opponents and the end result. Finding more consistency from their key players and improving their T-sides, which seem too execute-heavy and have lacked diversity, are going to be more important than their final placing.

No matter the angle from which you look at it, Complexity are massive underdogs in London. The North American side is the lowest-ranked team at the event, holding the 43rd spot at the moment, and only got a slot at the ECS S7 Finals as a result of Rogue forfeiting theirs following the team's disbandment.

Complexity did beat a strong team in NRG to reach the final of that ECS qualifier cup at the start of March, but have since made no steps forward. One win out of six BO3s played at ESL Pro League S9, as well as losses to Envy, Lazarus, and FURIA in online qualifiers, resulted in Complexity not being able to qualify for any other LAN event before the summer break.

A big part of their decline comes from the roster's instability. Ricardo "⁠Rickeh⁠" Mulholland's visa issues saw him miss out on over two months of action, forcing Complexity to use stand-ins such as Jordan "⁠n0thing⁠" Gilbert and Jaccob "⁠yay⁠" Whiteaker. On top of that, in-game leader Peter "⁠stanislaw⁠" Jarguz has stepped down from the roster, a move that was announced ahead of team's trip to London.

The change of the in-game leadership duties to Rory "⁠dephh⁠" Jackson and the arrival of Owen "⁠oBo⁠" Schlatter—a 15-year-old with almost no competitive experience, let alone at this level—, come into an already struggling side and should leave Complexity's fans worried about the team's chances this week.