ESL One Cologne 2019 Group A preview

Next week, the world's best teams will be in Cologne, Germany, fighting to lift the ESL One trophy at the LANXESS Arena. To start our preparation for the week of epic action, we take a look at the teams in Group A and analyze their chances at the tournament.

The legacy of ESL One Cologne goes all the way back to 2014 and includes three Majors. The German event is traditionally the high-point of the first half of the year, its history more than enough to drive interest on its own. However, the excitement for the upcoming edition is elevated even more thanks to the lack of highly-competitive tournaments in recent months, as well as the fact that this year's set of teams is perhaps stronger and more competitive than ever.

If a historic, 18,500-seat venue to which we will return for the fifth year in a row and great competition isn't enough, ESL One Cologne is spiced up by three big organizations debuting new lineups — Ninjas in Pyjamas, MIBR, and Natus Vincere —, as well as the fight for the top being as thrilling as ever. Liquid have a chance to close out the second season of the Intel Grand Slam in unbelievable fashion by winning four tournaments in a row, while other top teams — such as Astralis, ENCE, and Vitality — will be chomping at the bit to stop the North Americans.

With a $300,000 prize pool reserved for the tournament, a $1,000,000 put aside for the Intel Grand Slam winner, and $100,000 up for grabs for the team that can defeat Liquid in the grand final, ESL One Cologne is also massive in terms of the prize money that is up for grabs.

Without further ado, let's take a look at the eight teams that were placed into Group A, from which three teams will advance to the playoffs after the double-elimination bracket is played out.

Below you can find EGB.com's betting odds for the tournament winner as of June 30th:

Team: Rate (Ratio)
Astralis: 5.418 (16.61%)
Liquid: 6.020 (14.95%)
Natus Vincere: 6.772 (13.29%)
Vitality: 7.323 (12.29%)
NRG: 8.212 (10.96%)
ENCE: 9.027 (9.97%)
MOUZ: 10.830 (8.31%)
FaZe: 10.830 (8.31%)
MIBR: 24.658 (3.65%)
Other: 54.217 (1.66%)

An unwanted change, Epitacio "⁠TACO⁠" de Melo and Wilton "⁠zews⁠" Prado departing to MIBR, forced Liquid to create the lineup that has not only been their most successful one yet, but also has the potential to be one to enter the history books. Three back-to-back Big Event wins — IEM Sydney, DreamHack Masters Dallas, and ESL Pro League S9 Finals —, see the North American squad become the indisputable No.1 in the world while moving within one win from an Intel Grand Slam title.

ESL One Cologne could be where they close it out, and they are the closest to a clear favorite we can have at a tournament this stacked. But it's far from clear cut. Despite their winning streak, Liquid have not always been dominant, not even against underdogs in group stages, which was a forte of the old lineup. But perhaps moving a bit away from the heavily structured, "proper" Counter-Strike is exactly what has made them so strong against big teams and in the closing stages of the tournament.

While they are still a tactically capable team, Nick "⁠nitr0⁠" Cannella's Liquid are not scared to take off their gloves at times and fall back to a brawly, scrimmy style of Counter-Strike, playing to one of their strengths: an incredibly skilled lineup, in which every player is capable of taking over not only a single round but a whole map.

Liquid kick off ESL One Cologne against MVP PK, a match in which a win is practically a given, and will be set to face the winner of Natus Vincere - MOUZ next. With a 9-0 map record over the CIS side since April of last year and a convincing 2-0 success over the European mixture at the recent EPL Finals, Liquid shouldn't have any issues making the playoffs, but that is where the likes of Astralis, ENCE, or Vitality will await and the real test for nitr0's men will begin. They have already shown they have what it takes to go all the way, but will they have the mental fortitude to become legends, or will they crumble under the pressure?

Shaking off the grand final curse was something Liquid managed to do only after a roster change, when Jake "⁠Stewie2K⁠" Yip was brought in to fill the void left by TACO's departure. Seemingly, NRG are trying to emulate that formula to get over their semi-final hump (six 3rd-4th finishes from their last 12 events), replacing Damian "⁠daps⁠" Steele with Peter "⁠stanislaw⁠" Jarguz. The in-game leader swap comes into place following daps' final tournament with the squad, the ESL Pro League Season 9 Finals, where the North American squad exceeded expectations with a high placing and victories over Astralis, G2, and fnatic.

The overall consistency NRG have boasted since the Major, as well as their current world ranking of fifth, puts additional pressure on stanislaw to hit the ground running with the team. The former Complexity in-game leader was brought in as an upgrade in terms of firepower, and also to strengthen the calling in the team by working in tandem with his former OpTic teammate Tarik "⁠tarik⁠" Celik. The latter part is what could take some time to develop, but the individual prowess and the baseline built by daps should make up for some of the deficiencies.

NRG kick off the tournament against FURIA, whom they bested convincingly at ECS Season 7 Finals, and, in case of a win, will play the winner of FaZe - Renegades. They are certainly capable of handling the early challenges, especially if Vincent "⁠Brehze⁠" Cayonte maintains his stunning 2019 form. Reaching the playoffs of such a prestigious event in their first outing with this five would be a success, with everything after that a bonus and a good platform to build on in NRG's search for their first Big Event win.

Whether Filip "⁠NEO⁠" Kubski was viable for FaZe long-term or not was the main question we had about the team after their solid DreamHack Masters Dallas campaign, leading into the ESL Pro League Season 9 Finals. Had the European mixture delivered a similar level in their second LAN event, we could've accepted the veteran Pole as a permanent solution. However, the outing in France was a disappointing one, with the gravity of the failure masked by a bit of luck in the bracket and a 5-6th placing.

The only two teams that FaZe beat at Pro League Finals were TYLOO, in a close game on Vertigo, and North, in a three-map series in which the final map went into overtime, while they lost convincingly to MOUZ and G2. There is no reason to put the fault exclusively on NEO, though. While the team were exposed tactically at certain points and do not have a strong map pool (Dust2 accounts for 39% of the maps they have played on LAN so far), it was the individual drop in form that saw FaZe suffer.

Nikola "⁠NiKo⁠" Kovač averaged a 1.05 rating at the ESL Pro League Finals, making it the fifth worst LAN tournament of his career, and was still the best-rated player of his team and the only one to go above the 1.00 mark. While it has been confirmed that NEO will play with FaZe through the Major, how the team does in Cologne will certainly impact his chances to stick around with the gang long term. The competition at the event will be cut-throat, so if Ladislav "⁠GuardiaN⁠" Kovács, Olof "⁠olofmeister⁠" Kajbjer and Håvard "⁠rain⁠" Nygaard don't step up individually, the fate of the Polish veteran could be out of his hands.

It only took two weeks for FURIA to skyrocket into the top five and the hearts of many Counter-Strike fans, as their passion for the game, combined with an all-out aggressive approach, left few unimpressed. A 3rd-4th finish at DreamHack Masters Dallas and a second place at ECS Season 7 Finals were not the product of a single-player carry — although Yuri "⁠yuurih⁠" Santos and Kaike "⁠KSCERATO⁠" Cerato are overall their standout players —, but the result of everyone stepping up at different times, and a team-first approach to everything they do. Their head-through-the-wall T-sides are simple, yet intricate, with unorthodox mid-round calls making FURIA even more compelling to watch.

At the helm of the team is Andrei "⁠arT⁠" Piovezan, the IGL and AWPer, who leads by example. Taking risky duels and claiming valuable map control are things the 23-year-old tries to do as much as possible, with the risk of leaving his team exposed not something that is going to thwart him from his approach. His playstyle is both his strength and his weakness; in certain games, he has put FURIA in a very unfavorable positions, while in others he has all but ensured the victory.

It would be easy to criticize FURIA for some of their decisions to aggress, gamble stack, or rush, but at the same time, it wouldn't make much sense. The Brazilians don't conform to the norms put forward by the rest of the scene; instead, they challenge the meta at every step of the way, and therefore judging them on the basis of what, e. g., Astralis would do in a certain situation, isn't productive.

Playing to their own strengths is what FURIA have decided to do, and it was the cornerstone of their break out. ESL One Cologne is where we will find out if this approach is sustainable when their opponents know what to expect and have put in more preparation. arT and co. have shown some weaknesses already, losing to GamerLegion at Moche XL Esports and to eUnited in the ESL One New York qualifier, but with their wide map pool and eight teams in the group, it is unlikely that a heavy anti-strat will come into play and completely lock them out.

The rising Brazilian team managed to thwart the approaches for their players and signed new, long-term contracts ahead of the event. Now it is time for them to start delivering on the promise that they are more than just the best Brazilian team at the moment.

A lineup with a lot of potential, as well as community hype surrounding it, is closing in on four months together — and still hasn't broken into the top 10. Despite that, Finn "⁠karrigan⁠" Andersen and co. have managed to avoid practically any criticism, the main reason for that most likely being their blowout wins over lower-tier teams and the absence of a sound defeat so far.

Winning DreamHack Open Tours and getting out of groups at IEM Sydney are respectable results, but not ones a team of MOUZ' caliber can be excited about as they did not beat any top 10 teams while doing so. The European mixture took that step in Montpellier, managing commanding wins over FaZe, MIBR, and HellRaisers. Their run was stopped by Liquid in the semi-final, with MOUZ's flat performance showing that they may not have what it takes to deal with the best of the best just yet.

Still, MOUZ have built a strong foundation, starting with a solid map pool. The squad is undefeated on Train (8-0 on LAN), but don't rely too heavily on the map, playing Mirage and Inferno quite often as well. Nuke is also an option for them, and the same seems to apply to Vertigo, where they beat FaZe convincingly while in Montpellier. Moreover, the absence of an insta-ban — the team tends to alternatively ban Overpass, Dust2, and Vertigo — will help their case in the veto phases, karrigan's specialty.

Historically, MOUZ have never had a great time in Cologne. The German organization, which used to be based in the same city, went out in the groups the first four times they attended this event, with vastly different rosters. Since the recent restructure, MOUZ' offices have been moved to Hamburg, on the other side of the country. Perhaps that will put an end to their "Cologne Curse" and see the organization make the playoffs for the first time — their current team surely needs that to continue their climb up the rankings.

It has been over two months since we last saw Natus Vincere in action, when a disappointing loss to Heroic in the ESL Pro League Europe's second group stage pushed them into a roster change, with Kirill "⁠Boombl4⁠" Mikhailov coming in for Ioann "⁠Edward⁠" Sukhariev. By parting ways with their veteran, the now majority-Russian team looked to refresh things and add additional firepower to the squad.

Without seeing Natus Vincere in action, even in a single online match, it is not easy to say much about how they will do, even though the early signs are positive, at least according to Danylo "⁠Zeus⁠" Teslenko, who claimed in a VLOG that the synergy is good and that Boombl4's arrival has breathed new life into the team. There is something we can bank on: Oleksandr "⁠s1mple⁠" Kostyliev will perform to an outstanding level no matter what. The superstar boasts a 1.34 LAN rating so far this year, and if his side-kick Denis "⁠electroNic⁠" Sharipov doesn't massively fall off (1.22 LAN rating in 2019), they should be a force to be reckoned with.

While we often give leeway to teams heading into their first LAN event with a new lineup, this should not be applied in Natus Vincere's case. They have had an abundance of time to prepare, and, in all honesty, will most likely continue with a similar playstyle and minimal role changes. The tournament is ferocious and starting it off against MOUZ won't be easy, but making the playoffs is imperative, or dropping outside of the top 16 in the rankings could become a reality soon.

Renegades found most of their success around the Major, when proving that the gamble on domestic talent in Sean "⁠Gratisfaction⁠" Kaiwai and Jay "⁠Liazz⁠" Tregillgas was worth it. Since their outings in Katowice and Shanghai, things have slowed down, with visa issues hampering the team significantly. Almost two months of playing with stand-ins and breaks came to an end shortly ahead of DreamHack Masters Dallas, where they managed a respectable finish (7th-8th), considering the circumstances.

All that is behind them now. Renegades traveled to Europe for a bootcamp ahead of ESL One Cologne and will be trying to continue where they stopped after StarSeries and climb back into the top 10. That will be no easy task, as many squads have shown their potential in the meantime and overtaken them, but Renegades' will be relying on their strongest weapon, Justin "⁠jks⁠" Savage, to get them over the edge.

The 23-year-old had shown flashes of brilliance in the past but has found consistency with the latest Renegades lineup, with his performances in the first half of 2019 an indicator that he could land a place on the Top 20 players of the year list. The team's European import, Joakim "⁠jkaem⁠" Myrbostad, has been the second most prolific fragger, with Gratisfaction set to be the X factor in this squad. The AWPer wasn't hot on his return in Dallas but will have to deliver in Cologne if the Aussies with to make a dent in the tournament.

It is hard to get excited about the prospects of MVP PK at ESL One Cologne. The Asian representatives are usually massive outsiders at big tournaments with a couple of map wins being the best-expected outcome, but their underdog position is amplified at this event due to the heightened level of competition.

MVP PK are still one of the better CS:GO squads to have ever come out of Asia, at times able to challenge western teams and steal away wins, but their current lineup hasn't been able to find the formula for success yet. Locally, they still aren't able to establish the sort of dominance that would give them more international opportunities (losing the ESL Pro League qualifier to TYLOO), and their latest Big Event, IEM Sydney, was a mixed bag — they defeated eUnited but were eliminated by BIG, who were using their coach as a stand-in.

The young blood of the team should be happy with the opportunity to test themselves against the world's best — starting with Liquid in the opening game of the tournament — but, in the end, Seon-Ho "⁠xeta⁠" Son and co. most likely won't have a big impact on how ESL One Cologne will play out.