ESL One Cologne 2019 Group B preview

Less than two days remain before the fight for the much-coveted ESL One Cologne trophy and a point towards the Intel Grand Slam begins. We continue getting you ready for one of the most competitive events of the year, this time with an in-depth preview of Group B.

Sixteen of the world's best teams are finalizing their preparations for what is shaping up to be one of the most exciting tournaments to watch in 2019. ESL One Cologne has become a staple from both a historical standpoint, as it is set to run for the sixth year in a row ever since hosting the third Major at Gamescom in 2014, and from a competitive perspective, with each year bringing a stacked field of teams.

This year is no different, with 13 of the top-16 teams in attendance at the $300,000 tournament, which also has the big, fat cherry on top in the form of the Intel Grand Slam Season 2 implications, as Liquid won the last three tournaments counting towards it and are one trophy away from securing the grand prize of $1,000,000, while $100,000 could go to whoever denies them the fourth title in the grand final.

In case you missed it, Zvonimir "Professeur" Burazin's Group A preview has already been released and we also spent the better part of two hours dissecting ESL One Cologne from all angles during the 22nd episode of HLTV Confirmed alongside Chad "⁠SPUNJ⁠" Burchill in an audio/video format on Saturday.

This time, we dive into each team of Group B a bit more in-depth, going over their chances and recent history in a written format.

Below you can find EGB.com's betting odds for the tournament winner as of June 30th:

Team: Rate (Ratio)
Astralis: 5.445 (16.53%)
MIBR: 6.512 (13.82%)
Liquid: 7.217 (12.47%)
Natus Vincere: 8.303 (10.84%)
Vitality: 8.973 (10.03%)
NRG: 10.067 (8.94%)
ENCE: 10.714 (8.40%)
mousesports: 13.274 (6.78%)
FaZe: 13.274 (6.78%)
Other: 16.605 (5.42%)

Astralis are coming into ESL One Cologne with a lot to prove, as recent tournaments have shown that their era is already over. They are now four events without a win, even suffering their first group stage exit (with best-of-three series) with this lineup at ECS Season 7 Finals, which saw them lose to FURIA twice. They didn't improve on that very much with a quarter-final finish at the ESL Pro League Season 9 Finals.

Within a span of the last three months, the Danes have switched places with Liquid in the rankings despite at one point having amassed a huge lead with nearly double the points of the North American side at No.2, and are now in the exact opposite situation, while ENCE and Vitality are breathing down their necks in the two spots below. What's more, Astralis no longer seem to hold the matchup advantage over Nick "⁠nitr0⁠" Cannella & co. based on their latest encounter in the playoffs in Montpellier, and are clearly capable of losing to a good number of other teams, which puts them in an awkward spot ahead of ESL One Cologne.

A key factor that will only become clearer as the tournament goes on is that this will be the first time the AUG nerf is in place, which could, in theory, benefit Astralis as one of the teams who were relatively slow to adjust to the new meta and sometimes struggled when facing the increasingly more popular gun, which allowed the CTs to take much more aggressive angles and gain big advantages off its power. That is likely going to shift the balance away from the defense, where some of the top sides have been able to catch up to the Danes, and more to the offense, where Lukas "⁠gla1ve⁠" Rossander's team used to be better than everyone else but now are far from it.

Another question that will be answered is whether Astralis have been able to fix their map pool. Inferno has remained their strength, save for the one-sided affair against Liquid at Pro League, but three recent losses on Nuke have already begun to sway them away from picking the map when they have had the chance to, and that has cost them a huge veto advantage. On top of that, it's possible Danny "⁠zonic⁠" Sørensen & co. have given up on Mirage altogether, having banned it every time in France, while their last two Dust2s and Trains have seen them lose close encounters with NRG and ENCE. That doesn't look like the map pool of a tournament-winning team, especially not of one that was once able to abuse anyone in the world in vetoes.

Luckily for them, the fashion in which the Group B bracket turned out paves the way for Astralis to clinch a fairly easy playoff spot, facing BIG – one of the biggest underdogs of the tournament – in the initial best-of-one and then, should they come out on top, the winner of MIBR and fnatic in a series for a place in the quarter-finals, two teams that are far from their best at the moment. That should allow them to grow into the tournament before potentially facing ENCE or Vitality, the big favorites from the other half of the group. All in all, we should see Astralis reach the playoffs, but any top-five matchup they face after that could mean their demise.

ENCE return to where it all began for them – at last year's ESL One Cologne, they surprised everyone with a respectable top-eight finish and created a name to be feared (and memed).

Unlike Astralis and most of Group B's teams, ENCE will be quite well-rested going into Cologne after a month-long break since their runners-up campaign at DreamHack Masters Dallas, where the Finns continued their solid run of form that stretches back to the start of the year. So far in 2019, their worst results have been a quarter-final finish at StarSeries i-League Season 7 and a semi-final placing at cs_summit 4, both times falling to the eventual champions, Natus Vincere and Vitality, respectively.

While Astralis look like a team who could take advantage of the AUG nerf, ENCE are quite the opposite, with some of the most AUG-heavy players in Sami "⁠xseveN⁠" Laasanen, Aleksi "⁠Aleksib⁠" Virolainen, and Jani "⁠Aerial⁠" Jussila. On the other hand, the Finnish squad had a few extra days to readjust compared to those who were in Montpellier and played on the older version of the game when the most recent update hit the servers.

It is going to be harder than ever to replicate a deep run with so many big names up against them, which makes this a big test and a chance to distance themselves from the crowd below the No.1 team. That includes two of their group stage opponents, Astralis and Vitality, the latter of whom ENCE have had problems facing and are very likely to meet before they are safely through, in the second round of the upper bracket. Still, as long as they survive the opening best-of-one against Heroic, Slaava "⁠Twista⁠" Räsänen's side shouldn't have too much trouble making it through to the playoffs as a clear top-three team of the group.

Just like ENCE, Vitality are at their peak right now as the fourth-highest-ranked side in the world following their jump from a borderline top-ten team to an elite side off the back of title runs at cs_summit 4 and ECS Season 7 Finals, with a respectable playoff finish at DreamHack Masters Dallas in between.

The Frenchmen will be back in action this upcoming week, with Mathieu "⁠ZywOo⁠" Herbaut – one of the most exciting players to watch nowadays and the recipient of MVP awards in the team's successful campaigns in Los Angeles and London – leading Vitality into what might just be the most important tournament for them so far in 2019 given their current status, which places them in contention for the title.

Vitality will first face NiP in a heavily-favored opening match, due to the Swedes' lineup situation, before the run gets tougher. There is a big chance of a rematch with ENCE, in which the French side has had the upper hand, followed by a potential first encounter with the vulnerable Astralis, which makes a perfect group stage run a possibility for Nathan "⁠NBK-⁠" Schmitt's squad. At the same time, a MIBR matchup would be a first for Vitality, and their only meeting with fnatic ended with the Swedes on top back at StarSeries, making the lower bracket a dangerous prospect despite the two teams looking weakened at the moment.

On the opposite side, MIBR have been on a disappointing run, finishing outside of the playoffs twice in a row, at the ECS Season 7 Finals and at the ESL Pro League Season 9 Finals. While in France two strong teams stood in their way, mousesports and Liquid, in London it was a massive comeback from North and a series defeat to Complexity that put the Brazilian side in last place.

That was the final straw for the 2017 SK lineup that had come back together at the beginning of 2019, as João "⁠felps⁠" Vasconcellos was once again cut to make room for one of his former teammates, this time with Lucas "⁠LUCAS1⁠" Teles taking his place and reuniting with Gabriel "⁠FalleN⁠" Toledo and Fernando "⁠fer⁠" Alvarenga to recreate the core of 2014's KaBuM.TD.

The new roster began practicing together while still in Montpellier, and soon after the event was over the players traveled to Germany for a week-long bootcamp. That has given them a little bit to work with, but they will still not be acquainted well enough with their new player, particularly considering that LUCAS1 and felps are such different players. Some positional switches are going to be necessary for the replacement to work, so either LUCAS1 will be uncomfortable in felps's old positions, or more players will if FalleN & co. decided to make the needed changes already.

We will find out soon enough which route MIBR has chosen, but it should prevent them from having a shot at a deep run in any case, especially with how hard the level of competition will be in Cologne. Facing fnatic early on, MIBR do not have an easy matchup in the opening best-of-one, either, so they could very well be on the back foot from the get-go.

fnatic are also coming off a rough month of action after traveling to Dallas and Montpellier only to get eliminated early both times, with their only wins over the course of the two tournaments being up against Cloud9 in a best-of-one and against Grayhound in a close series.

Even though it's actually still recent history, the days when the Swedes made two finals in a row seem long gone, as they're far from that level individually (Freddy "⁠KRIMZ⁠" Johansson and Jesper "⁠JW⁠" Wecksell are struggling to have the same level of impact they had two months ago at IEM Sydney and StarSeries) and have been unable to find answers as a team following some role changes between the AWPers.

Recent rumors of potential changes within fnatic were swiftly refuted by JW, who also shared that he had to be hospitalized ahead of ESL One Cologne while the team practiced with coach Jimmy "⁠Jumpy⁠" Berndtsson for a few days in case the 24-year-old would be unable to attend. Although the Swedes will have their full lineup in Germany after all, this does not help their outlook at a tournament of such stature, where they will have to beat multiple top-ten teams to improve on their recent blunders.

It will take a very different fnatic from the one we have seen over the last month to make it past the group stage in Cologne, particularly given their route. That includes an opening clash against MIBR, whose situation makes it favorable for Richard "⁠Xizt⁠" Landström's squad but is still far from an easy matchup, and at least one of Astralis, Vitality, and ENCE, with Heroic also having a chance to eliminate the Swedes for the second time in a row.

NiP arrive in Cologne in a similar situation as MIBR, having benched Dennis "⁠dennis⁠" Edman to make room for Nicolas "⁠Plopski⁠" Gonzalez Zamora in the lineup following a string of poor results that saw them fail to qualify for the ESL Pro League Season 9 Finals and face relegation, place 9th-12th at DreamHack Masters Dallas, and bomb out of ECS Season 7 Finals.

On the one hand, Patrik "⁠f0rest⁠" Lindberg & co. have had around two weeks with their newest player, which is more than what the Brazilians have had to work with, but, on the other hand, Plopski won't continue playing with them until after the StarLadder Major has ended as Maikil "⁠Golden⁠" Selim will step in for the next couple of months due to roster rules.

That puts things into perspective when it comes to NiP's expectations for ESL One Cologne, which has become meaningless for them outside of giving their new player some much-needed time among the best teams in the world. That also means that they have no ambitions and there is zero pressure on them to deliver results, which can always throw a wrench in the plans of their opponents, who will also have a hard time deciphering how NiP will play with a new lineup. It isn't going to be enough for the Ninjas to have a shot at the playoffs, not up against the kind of teams they have in their group, but it could give them a surprise win along the way.

Although Heroic are in a position where they need to qualify for the top-tier tournaments each time, this will be their third Big Event in two months after they made it to IEM Sydney and ESL Pro League Season 9 Finals, with the latter event yielding them a respectable top-eight finish following victories over DETONA and fnatic.

The last couple of tournaments have shown that Heroic are trying to switch some roles around as Niels-Christian "⁠NaToSaphiX⁠" Sillassen has given up the primary AWP in favor of Patrick "⁠es3tag⁠" Hansen after the team was unable to qualify for the Europe Minor, but so far it hasn't resulted in much improvement in either individual's output.

When it comes to Group B at ESL One Cologne and the Danes' chances in it, they will have to go up against ENCE, one of the best teams of the entire tournament, right off the bat. That sounds better than later on given that it is a best-of-one, but a win would likely lead to another hard matchup in the form of Vitality, that time in a series setting.

And even beyond that point, Heroic simply look like the losing side in nearly any matchup possible in Group B, including the ones against the two teams who are attending the event with new players, NiP and MIBR, with the possibility of a rematch against fnatic making for an interesting storyline should the two meet in an elimination series once again.

Ever since the arrival of Ismailcan "⁠XANTARES⁠" Dörtkardeş at the end of last year, BIG have been trying to catch up with the competition and return to good form. They have so far failed at that despite going through multiple more lineup changes as Owen "⁠smooya⁠" Butterfield stepped down and was replaced by Johannes "⁠nex⁠" Maget, whose spot was taken by Denis "⁠denis⁠" Howell three months later.

The German side have yet to show any real improvement this year, as even the return of Johannes "⁠tabseN⁠" Wodarz to rifling hasn't worked, with BIG's first LAN showing alongside denis at Moche XL coming to a quick end after they lost to Virtus.pro in the quarter-finals.

Short of a miraculous campaign mirroring BIG's memorable run to the grand final at last year's ESL One Cologne, there isn't much to be hopeful about regarding Fatih "⁠gob b⁠" Dayik's team's chances of appearing in front of their home crowd come the weekend. They have several top-ten teams in their path, starting with Astralis and followed by one of MIBR and fnatic, which looks like too tall of a task for them.