IEM Fall EU: Who's still in the running for a Major spot?

NIP and Astralis became the first two teams to secure a spot at PGL Major Stockholm through the European RMR standings, and some of the remaining nine spots could be decided today.

The IEM Fall Europe group stage is heading into the final round of matches, where it is still almost all to play for. Out of the 24 teams, three are already confirmed to play in the playoffs — NIP, Copenhagen Flames, and Astralis — while five more are out of the running entirely with fnatic, AURA, Endpoint, MAD Lions, and Sprout no longer able to place in the top three in their respective groups.

A win over Fiend would nearly guarantee FaZe a Major spot

Any of the other 16 teams could still finish in the top 11 placings which award points in the Regional Major Ranking and at least have a chance to make it to the PGL Major, with only two out of the 11 spots on offer in the European standings being locked out by NIP and Astralis.

For many of these 16 teams, a placing in the points is absolutely necessary, which puts a lot on the line on today's 12 matches. All of them have some implications on whether a team can make it into the points and have a chance to qualify for the Major, which makes things more than a little complicated, so we are here to help.

Let's see what each team still in the running needs to do to have a shot at making it to PGL Major Stockholm.

Group D

Current standings
1. Sweden NIP (4-0) - qualified for playoffs and the Major
2. Europe FaZe (3-1)
3-4. Bulgaria Fiend (2-2)
3-4. France DBL PONEY (2-2)
5. Bulgaria SKADE (1-3)
6. Sweden fnatic (0-4) - out of Major contention

Final matches
18:00 Bulgaria Fiend vs. Europe FaZe
18:00 France DBL PONEY vs. Sweden NIP
18:00 Sweden fnatic vs. Bulgaria SKADE

In Group D, NIP can already rest easy as the top spot already belongs to them and, at the very least, they will play in the first stage of the Major no matter what else happens. Meanwhile, fnatic can only play spoiler after having been eliminated from contention on day three already, which leaves us with four teams playing for one spot in the playoffs and one in the 9th-12th decider bracket.

FaZe

FaZe beating Fiend would put them through to playoffs and likely to qualify for the Major already, with a top 7 placing guaranteeing them a spot

— A loss to Fiend puts them in third place of the group and the 9th-12th bracket, where they need to place at least 11th to have a chance to qualify

Fiend

Fiend beating FaZe would put them through to playoffs for a chance to qualify for the Major already, while improving to top six there would guarantee a spot

— A loss to FaZe would put Fiend in a tough position, where they need DBL PONEY to lose to NIP so that they have a chance to place third outright or at least play mr3 decider matches for it

— Placing at least 10th overall gives them an outside chance to qualify

DBL PONEY

DBL PONEY are out of the running for playoffs and can only place third in the group, and then need at least 11th place overall to have a solid chance to qualify, or 10th place to guarantee a spot

— To place third in the group, DBL PONEY need FaZe to win at the bare minimum, and then to either win their match against NIP to place third or SKADE to beat fnatic to enter tiebreakers for third place

SKADE

SKADE are also out of the running for playoffs and need to place third in the group and at least 10th place overall. They can no longer outright guarantee a Major spot, as even 9th place might not be enough

— Only one scenario can see them place third, which is if NIP beat DBL PONEY, FaZe beat Fiend, and SKADE beat fnatic, resulting in mr3 tiebreakers between DBL PONEY, SKADE, and Fiend

Group A

Current standings
1. Denmark Copenhagen Flames (4-0) - qualified for playoffs
2. Europe G2 (3-1)
3-4. Europe MOUZ (2-2)
3-4. Germany BIG (2-2)
5. Europe FunPlus Phoenix (1-3)
6. Sweden AURA (0-4) - out of Major contention

Final matches
19:15 Europe G2 vs. Europe MOUZ
19:15 Germany BIG vs. Denmark Copenhagen Flames
19:15 Europe FunPlus Phoenix vs. Sweden AURA

The situation is similar in Group A, where Copenhagen Flames have already clinched the top spot and qualified for the playoffs, earning themselves a decent chance to qualify for the Major already and a possibility to guarantee a spot if they improve to top six. On the other end, AURA are out of the running.

G2

— A victory over MOUZ would put G2 through to the playoffs and guarantee them a Major spot

— A loss will see G2 place third in the group and play for points in the 9th-12th decider bracket, where getting at least 11th place would qualify them for the Major

— Even without a points finish they are in a good spot as the second-highest team in the RMR standings before IEM Fall results

mousesports

— A victory over G2 would qualify MOUZ for playoffs and the Major

— In case of a loss, they can still place third as long as BIG lose to Copenhagen Flames, in which case mouz would either be third if AURA beat FPX or otherwise play mr3 tiebreakers with FPX and BIG for third place

— A top-11 placing is enough to guarantee a Major spot, no points placing puts qualification out of mouz's hands, but with 1,600 points already they wouldn't be in a bad situation

BIG

BIG are out of playoffs contention and can place third at best, which they can earn only if G2 beat mousesports. Winning their own match against Flames would then see them place third, while losing the match and FPX beating AURA would result in mr3 tiebreakers between mouz, FPX, and BIG

— They don't strictly speaking need to earn points at the moment, but they'd rely on several other results to go their way to qualify for the Major then

— A top-11 placing is enough to guarantee a Major spot

FPX

FunPlus Phoenix are out of playoffs contention and only have one way to place third in the group: If they beat AURA, G2 beat mousesports, and Copenhagen Flames beat BIG

— They will then play mr3 tiebreakers which they need to win to place third and play for points in the 9th-12th bracket

— This is the only way FPX can qualify for the Major, as they need to finish in points, and a top-11 placing would automatically qualify them

Group B

Current standings
1. Denmark Astralis (4-0) - qualified for playoffs and the Major
2. Czech Republic SINNERS (3-1)
3-4. Spain Movistar Riders (2-2)
3-4. Denmark Heroic (2-2)
5. Europe Complexity (1-3)
6. United Kingdom Endpoint (0-4) - out of Major contention

Final matches
20:30 Denmark Heroic vs. Europe Complexity
20:30 Czech Republic SINNERS vs. Denmark Astralis
20:30 United Kingdom Endpoint vs. Spain Movistar Riders

Just like in the previous two groups, only one playoffs spot and one spot in the 9th-12th decider bracket is on the line in Group B after Astralis secured their playoffs spot in round four and confirmed their attendance in the first stage of PGL Major Stockholm. Endpoint are left to play for pride, set to finish last in the group.

Sinners

— Winning their last match against Astralis would put SINNERS through to the playoffs, which is enough to give them a chance to qualify for the Major and a possibility to improve to top six to guarantee a spot

— In case of a loss they will still advance to playoffs if Endpoint beat Movistar Riders, while if Movistar and Complexity win their matches Sinners will place third, and if Movistar and Heroic win their matches then Sinners, Movistar Riders, and Heroic will play mr3 deciders for second to fourth place

— Need at least a top-10 placing to have a chance to qualify, but even 9th might not be enough

Heroic

Heroic beating Complexity would put them in third place, unless Astralis and Movistar win their matches, in which case Heroic, Sinners, and Movistar enter mr3 tiebreakers for second to fourth place

— A loss still gives Heroic a chance to play mr3 tiebreakers for third place if Endpoint beat Movistar Riders

— A top-11 placing guarantees Heroic a spot at the Major, but even if they don't earn points they are still likely to make it as the team with the most RMR points ahead of IEM Fall

Movistar Riders

Bear with me here, because the Spaniards' fate depends on all three results.

Movistar Riders need a win over Endpoint to be in contention for the playoffs spot, which they may or may not clinch depending on other results

Movistar win cases
— Astralis and Complexity winning the final round puts Movistar in the playoffs
— Astralis and Heroic winning puts Heroic, Sinners, and Movistar in mr3 tiebreakers for second to fourth place
— Sinners and Complexity winning puts Movistar in third place
— Sinners and Heroic winning puts Movistar Riders in fourth place

— Losing their match means they will be out of playoffs contention and can only play mr3 tiebreakers for third place in case Complexity beat Heroic, or they will get eliminated if Heroic beat Complexity

— Movistar need third place in the group at least, but even 9th place overall might not be enough, so a playoffs finish is the goal. Top 6 guarantees them a spot at the Major

Complexity

Complexity are out of playoffs contention and need to win their match against Heroic as well as Endpoint to beat Movistar to be in contention for third place. Complexity would then play mr3 tiebreakers against Heroic and Movistar for third place

— This is the only way Complexity can advance to the Major, as they need at least a top-11 placing overall for a chance, with a top-9 placing guaranteeing them a spot

Group C

Current standings
1-3. France Vitality (3-1)
1-3. Europe ENCE (3-1)
1-3. Europe OG (3-1)
4. Sweden Dignitas (2-2)
5. Europe MAD Lions (1-3) - out of Major contention
6. Germany Sprout (0-4) - out of Major contention

Final matches
21:45 France Vitality vs. Sweden Dignitas
21:45 Europe OG vs. Europe MAD Lions
21:45 Europe ENCE vs. Germany Sprout

Group C is perhaps the most complicated, with both playoffs spots as well as a spot in the 9th-12th decider bracket still to play for. MAD Lions and Sprout can no longer place in the top three and are out of contention for the Major as a result. Barring big surprises, we will get tiebreakers for first to third place among the three favorites.

Vitality

Vitality winning their match against Dignitas would see the Frenchmen secure playoffs and the Major spot as long as an upset happens in one of the other two matches (Sprout beating ENCE or MAD Lions beating OG, or both). If the favorites all win, Vitality, ENCE, and OG will play rematches for first to third place

— In case of a loss to Dignitas, Vitality would be eliminated in fourth place unless MAD Lions and ENCE win their matches, in which case Vitality, OG, and Dignitas would play mr3 rematches for second to fourth place

— A top-11 finish would guarantee Vitality a spot at the Major, otherwise they need other results to go in their favor so they remain among the Major qualifying spots in RMR standings

ENCE

ENCE beating Sprout would put them in playoffs unless Vitality and OG both win as well, which would mean rematches for first to third place among the favorites

— They would still make playoffs even if they lose in the case Dignitas beat Vitality, or at least place third if Vitality win

— A top-10 placing is enough for ENCE to have at least some chance to qualify, but a playoffs finish would greatly increase their chances, with a top six placing guaranteeing them a spot at the Major

OG

OG winning their match against MAD Lions will see them advance to the playoffs unless Vitality and ENCE win their matches, which enacts the three-way tie between them and tiebreaker matches

— They would advance to playoffs even in case of a loss if Sprout beat ENCE, while if ENCE and Vitality win OG would place third. Finally, if MAD Lions, Dignitas, and ENCE win, mr3 rematches between Vitality, OG, and Dignitas would be played for second to fourth place

— The final scenario mentioned is the only way OG can be out of the top three

— Thanks to the 430 RMR points they already have, a top-11 placing is enough for OG to have a chance to qualify, while a top-9 placing would see them clinch a Major spot

Dignitas

Dignitas's situation is the hardest, as they can't earn a playoffs spot outright, but they can enter one scenario where they will play tiebreakers for second place

— Losing to Vitality would eliminate them from groups and Major contention

— A win would put them in third place in all cases but one, when MAD Lions and ENCE win their matches, which leads to a three-way tie and mr3 tiebreakers between Vitality, OG, and Dignitas for second to fourth place

— At a bare minimum Dignitas require a top-10 placing for any chance at all to qualify and a top-6 to clinch a Major spot for certain


Below you can see case-by-case how the three final matches affect the standings in each group:

Time is adjusted to your selected timezone
Olof goat!
2021-10-03 17:18
4 replies
+1
2021-10-03 17:40
1 reply
#35
 | 
Kosovo Theexend
2021-10-03 18:11
+1000
2021-10-03 17:56
#46
 | 
Bulgaria VenTMG
well...
2021-10-03 19:11
Lit !
2021-10-03 17:18
#3
 | 
North America wizQ
Hopefully. Would be Nooooooice 👌 to see faze or fanatic win. But I mean cmon……
2021-10-03 17:19
1 reply
rip
2021-10-03 19:11
so FAZE will find their way of losing u say? nice :D
2021-10-03 17:21
#5
 | 
Argentina WaSTe_D
Damn striker just in time
2021-10-03 17:21
NIP and Astralis became the first two teams to secure a spot at PGL dENMARK,,,,
2021-10-03 17:21
#7
hades | 
Poland Amirek
Go ENCE! #EZ4ENCE
2021-10-03 17:23
#8
 | 
Azerbaijan djwanksta
Can we just get a NIP vs Astralis in playoffs, it's been fking me up that they haven't fought once after the device transfer
2021-10-03 17:25
4 replies
I wanna see that but with Glaive back so it’s the full team
2021-10-03 17:29
#20
 | 
Norway 2kayn
They did.
2021-10-03 17:36
1 reply
#36
 | 
Azerbaijan djwanksta
No? Link me the match?
2021-10-03 18:13
can'T wait for 40% excuse
2021-10-03 18:21
Hope dies last, never give up FPX!
2021-10-03 17:27
#10
 | 
Australia B_Tannen
I hope FaZe and vitality can solidify their spots.
2021-10-03 17:27
Faze will rekt fiend
2021-10-03 17:28
1 reply
#43
REZ | 
Russia inough
sad
2021-10-03 18:49
nice explanation
2021-10-03 17:29
#14
 | 
Japan Misteear
#DreamOG
2021-10-03 17:31
amazing article by Striker !
2021-10-03 17:31
#16
 | 
Pakistan LoOuU2
How are 9-12th placement matches going to be played? Will it be like it's in playoffs with Semis and final or will every team play each other?
2021-10-03 17:34
2 replies
Semis, final and an 11th place decider
2021-10-03 17:38
1 reply
#27
 | 
Pakistan LoOuU2
Thank you Mr. Tactical_Genius
2021-10-03 17:49
Huge post. very well done
2021-10-03 17:34
headache article
2021-10-03 17:34
Amazing work by Striker!!!!
2021-10-03 17:35
#22
 | 
India Nisarg98
willl there be crowd for this lan event playoffs or the major?
2021-10-03 17:38
2 replies
Crowd IEM Fall - No Crowd Major - Yes* *Might be reversed just like T10 banning crowd 2 days bejore the main event starts.
2021-10-03 17:52
1 reply
#54
 | 
India Nisarg98
Oh ok hopefully we see crowd lan with crowd hits different
2021-10-03 20:24
Why Valve making things so complicated.... Look at how riot operates with Worlds Qualification. Simple and easy to understand... PS: It is an amazing analysis from Striker
2021-10-03 17:40
#25
 | 
Europe Velurom
A great post
2021-10-03 17:42
#26
JK | 
Asia flipflop
Striker is the real king
2021-10-03 17:42
Striker, what a beautiful article man. Great Job.
2021-10-03 17:51
for those "tl;dr" FAZE and G2 need to win their today's matches vs mouz and FADE respectively to avoid shenanigans... gl
2021-10-03 17:51
#31
 | 
Ukraine d3adLY
pls vitality not major
2021-10-03 17:54
Thanks for the explanation
2021-10-03 17:55
cant imagine how much work author put to such text, its really a huge job thanks
2021-10-03 18:06
Great article I would never in a million years expect COPENHAGEN FLAMES to be at the top of their group during the final major qualifier lmao
2021-10-03 18:17
1 reply
easy group - but still nicely done man
2021-10-03 18:19
do a TLDR version.
2021-10-03 18:18
1 reply
#41
 | 
Kosovo Theexend
2021-10-03 18:29
Ez for goat team and goat player team of course they're first to qualify
2021-10-03 18:40
#44
 | 
Finland AliSabid
Interesting
2021-10-03 18:50
#45
 | 
China HEIDASHUAi
Thank you Striker, you put so much hard work into these articles
2021-10-03 18:53
No way, fiend is in the playoffs now? Wtf is going on..
2021-10-03 19:23
looking good for sinners) gl in playoffs
2021-10-03 19:24
very cool article, thanks
2021-10-03 19:27
EZ FOR DIG!
2021-10-03 19:45
good article, do you know if A1 and D2 are in the same playoffs bracket? it would mean that one of CPH Flames or Fiend are guaranteed to qualify as one of them would go to the 5th-6th match
2021-10-03 19:50
hey, i only want to say that you are THE goat Thanks for this articles
2021-10-03 20:20
Striker: The man with beautiful mind
2021-10-04 00:42
Good article Striker!
2021-10-04 11:43
Interesting read, cheers!
2021-10-04 15:32
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