IEM Katowice preview: Playoffs contenders

With the group stage of IEM Katowice set to start, let's take a look at the teams that will begin their adventure straight from the top 16.

The Play-Ins of IEM Katowice 2022 have come to an end, and with only eight teams still standing after two days of almost uninterrupted action, we can usher in the group stage. The set of teams advancing to this next stage will join eight squads that have bypassed the Play-Ins thanks to their performances in the ESL Pro Tour circuit over the course of 2021. We will have a look at these squads, and assess their chances at making the playoffs of the $1,000,000 event.

IEM Katowice serves as the much-anticipated return to crowded LAN arenas for ESL, and the return of the Counter-Strike world to the iconic Spodek Arena for the first time since 2020, when an empty ground was witness to Natus Vincere's rise to glory.

HLTV.org has already published two previews, looking at the other 16 teams that traveled to Poland, analyzing their storylines and form coming into the first big event of 2022. Now it's time to have a look at the eight teams that started off the event one step closer to the Arena.

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IEM Katowice preview: The underdogs

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IEM Katowice preview: The Play-In contenders

Can they reconquer the Spodek?

How can we not start with the favorites to lift the trophy? Natus Vincere are coming to Poland not only as reigning Major champions but also as the ruling kings of the Spodek Arena. The CIS side were the last ones to lift the trophy in the arena, defeating G2 in what would turn out to be a series of LAN final victories over the European squad over the course of the next 24 months.

Closing 2021 as the undisputed best team in the world, Natus Vincere dominated the circuit in the second half of the year, finally taking their destined Major victory without dropping a single map throughout the whole event, the first ever to do it. To top the year off, BLAST Premier Fall Finals and BLAST World Finals were added to their already exemplary trophy cabinet as Oleksandr "⁠s1mple⁠" Kostyliev claimed a record-breaking eight MVP awards.

Despite their shaky form in their debut event of 2022 at BLAST Premier Spring Groups, Natus Vincere still managed to qualify for the next stage of the circuit while avoiding the Showdown. An underperformance from the best team in the world? Yes. But as most analysts agree, it was most likely a fluke and not the teaser of a bigger collapse.

The CIS squad comes into Katowice as the number one team in the world, still favorites to take the trophy home and crush the threat posed by the new "superteams" built during the winter off-season. s1mple and co. are going to bounce back hard, and there is nothing we can do about it.

Pretenders to the CIS throne

The current champions of IEM Katowice, Gambit were one of the protagonists of 2021, skyrocketing through the pecking order to establish themselves as one of the best teams of the online era. Uniquely enough, the squad remained intact through last year, avoiding roster changes despite the rostermania that claimed most teams during the winter off-season.

The CIS boys took five titles home with them throughout the year, and while most of their standout performances came online, they worked hard to transfer those results into LAN. A semi-final exit from the Major would lead to a victory at V4 Future Sports Festival 202 and a silver medal from BLAST Premier World Final. With clutch king Dmitry "⁠sh1ro⁠" Sokolov and veteran Abay "⁠HObbit⁠" Khassenov performing admirably through their las months, it now comes down to Sergey "⁠Ax1Le⁠" Rykhtorov to find consistency and elevate Gambit to title contention once again.

The youngsters come into IEM Katowice as the second-ranked team in the world, and with a tournament victory under their belt from Funspark ULTI 2021 Finals. The Vladislav "⁠nafany⁠" Gorshkov-led squad will want to continue their good form going into 2022, and a top-four placement in the Spodek must be their baseline, but with sights set on the trophy.

Can the French-Danish experiment prove fruitful?

Vitality come into Katowice with something to prove, coming off a rough year which was redeemed by the return to form of the Frenchmen in the later stages of the season.

The departure and retirement of Cédric "⁠RpK⁠" Guipouy was a pivotal moment for the squad as the arduous task of replacing le tank would have been hard for anyone, never mind a complete rookie like Jayson "⁠Kyojin⁠" Nguyen Van. In stark contrast to 2020, Vitality would not reach any grand finals until September, where a more settled squad was able to give a five-match thriller against Natus Vincere at ESL Pro League Season 14. Despite losing to the CIS giants, EPL showed that the squad had potential and teased the events that were to follow that Autumn.

The closing stages of the year saw the Frenchmen end their run at the PGL Major Stockholm in the playoffs, again falling to eventual winners Natus Vincere. There was a change of attitude in the Vitality camp following their Major adventure, with reports of the team set to see drastic changes, the squad went on an inspiring run of form. The Frenchmen would end runners up at BLAST Fall finals and lift the trophy at IEM Winter, before finishing the year with a respectable third-place finish at BLAST World Finals.

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The rumors that emerged after their Major exit were proven true, with Vitality facing a dramatic revamp in the new year. Veteran of the French scene Richard "⁠shox⁠" Papillon and young Kyojin departed the squad, making way for three of Astralis's own following the break-up of the all-conquering core.

Danny "⁠zonic⁠" Sørensen, Peter "⁠dupreeh⁠" Rasmussen, and Emil "⁠Magisk⁠" Reif have joined a French core already familiar to success, but questions lay on the ability of both sets of players to adapt to a completely new environment and language. BLAST Spring groups was a good showing, but can they establish themselves as title contenders in Katowice? Playoffs look like a certainty for them, and a good draw in the bracket could easily see them through to the final, it is up to them to make a statement.

Is YEKINDAR's red hot form enough?

Virtus.pro come into IEM Katowice in a curious situation, entering the event with seemingly no pressure to outperform the top contenders and newly-formed "superteams", but in good enough form to prove themselves as a tricky opponent and take a high placement. It is a fantastic opportunity for Dzhami "⁠Jame⁠" Ali's squad as they look to make a good impression on their return to tier one competition.

Right before the start of the Stockholm Major, the team saw their latest roster change with Evgenii "⁠FL1T⁠" Lebedev coming in to replace long-time support player Sanjar "⁠SANJI⁠" Kuliev. Virtus.pro would end the Major in the quarterfinals, falling to Heroic after a good showing in Stockholm. Since then, we have seen very little from the CIS squad, ending their season with a top-four finish at IEM Winter before going into the break.

Virtus.pro are heading into the Katowice groups in great form, coming out of ESL Challenger February as champions following a fantastic performance from their star entry Mareks "⁠YEKINDAR⁠" Gaļinskis. The young Latvian, who finished #8 in our top 20 players list of 2021, is currently one of the hottest prospects in the scene, ending his debut tournament of the year with an incredible 1.61 rating after cruising through the event.

Despite such a start to the year, however, it will be difficult for Virtus.pro to get much more than a group stage exit as the quality of opposition they will be facing in Katowice is several levels above what they have faced so far.

Perennial runners-up, time for a change

G2 went through some serious changes during the player break, with the aim of stealing the crown from Natus Vincere and finally claiming that ever-elusive big event victory.

Despite a couple of disastrous exits from events, the European squad under the leadership of Nemanja "⁠nexa⁠" Isaković was relatively consistent throughout the whole of 2021, mainly finishing in playoffs places until the summer. The performances from G2 began to take a turn for the better after the return to LAN, beginning with their runners-up finish at IEM Cologne. It was not the first time they failed to defeat Natus Vincere for a title and certainly it would not be their last.

The return from the summer break would see G2 crash out of both EPL 14 and BLAST Fall groups, forcing them back to the drawing board before the PGL Major in Stockholm. At the Major, the squad came into the Legends Stage firing on all cylinders, easily qualifying for the playoffs as Nikola "⁠NiKo⁠" Kovač presented his case for being the best player at the tournament. Despite the Bosnian's performance, their Major adventure saw them face off and lose against Natus Vincere once again.

G2 spent the majority of 2021 without a dedicated AWPer, and thus the organization dipped in the market to find a solution to their problem. 16-year old prodigy Ilya "⁠m0NESY⁠" Osipov was picked freshly off NAVI Junior after a year spent proving himself as the best prospect from the academy circuit. The young Russian would not be the only addition as Aleksi "⁠Aleksib⁠" Virolainen would also join the squad, taking the leadership from nexa.

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The new "superteam" played well at their debut event, easily going through BLAST Spring Groups and displaying only one loss against Vitality and more incredible performances from NiKo. G2 are coming to Katowice as one of the most promising teams following the off-season and will be looking to quickly establish themselves as title contenders, however, swapping the IGL and AWPer is a sizable change and will take time to adapt. G2 should be looking to hit a top-four spot to start the year on a good note.

Will Heroic come back to form?

Heroic are one of the few teams that remained unchanged during the player break, and with good reason. Casper "⁠cadiaN⁠" Møller and co. could claim to be the best Danish team of 2021, winning trophies and finishing high at big events throughout the year.

Despite the inherent quality of their individuals, the young squad failed to close the year on a high note. Semi-final exits from the Major and BLAST Fall Final were quickly followed by back-to-back last palace finishes at IEM Winter and BLAST World Final, less than an ideal end to their season. To make things worse, their plans to kickstart 2022 in better form were quickly quashed after a quarterfinal exit from Pinnacle Winter Series 1 following a narrow loss to K23.

Heroic really need to show something else at IEM Katowice, the individual quality from their young riflers is really enough to power the team to title contention so they really need to establish themselves as such in Poland. For the Danes, playoffs should be the floor of their campaign and should be looking at the semifinals to consider this a successful venture.

Brazil's last hope

FURIA come to Katowice to give some of the South American flair that Europe has been missing for a while. A turbulent 2021 impeded the team's ascendance after easily acting as the best team from their region, and often, as the best team from the Americas.

Once they found their footing after a few events in Europe, they began to find their stride and show some of the performances that put them at the center of Brazilian Counter-Strike.

After taking the top step of the podium at IEM Fall and guaranteeing themselves a spot in the Legends Stage, FURIA was not expected to produce much in terms of results in the Stockholm Major. Against all expectations, the squad which people had written off managed to get convincing wins over the likes of MOUZ, Liquid, and Entropiq, earning a spot in the quarter-finals. Despite going out to Gambit on the first round of playoffs, the South Americans finished their season in impressive fashion, especially as they played without their long-time coach Nicholas "⁠guerri⁠" Nogueira.

With Rafael "⁠saffee⁠" Costa joining the FURIA in January, the deadly partnership of Kaike "⁠KSCERATO⁠" Cerato and Yuri "⁠yuurih⁠" Santos can now count on one of the hottest prospects from their home region. Now finally with a dedicated AWPer, captain Andrei "⁠arT⁠" Piovezan will be able to focus on leading the squad to their rightful place amongst the American elite.

After a disappointing debut event at Pinnacle Winter Series 1 where they went out at the hands of Wisla Krakow, the Brazilians bounced back at ESL Challenger February with a second-place finish, behind a Virtus.pro in good form. FURIA come into the group stages of Katowice aiming to build upon the good form shown at ESL Challenger, and proving that both saffee and André "⁠drop⁠" Abreu can hang out in a team challenging for the top spot in their region.

Will nitr0 reignite the North American giants?

Liquid are looking to turn a new page this year following a rather flat 2021 which saw the North Americans leave with only one trophy to their name at cs_summit 8, a disappointing year when compared to the caliber of players in the squad.

The constant changes in leadership between Jake "⁠Stewie2K⁠" Yip and Gabriel "⁠FalleN⁠" Toledo certainly did not help their case, destabilizing the squad at various points throughout the year and preventing them to grow to their full potential. Like so many other teams, Liquid saw some radical changes through the off-season, with Stewie2K, FalleN, and Michael "⁠Grim⁠" Wince being sidelined in favor of a new set of players, aiming to revitalize the team. To this aim came veteran shox, AWPing sensation Josh "⁠oSee⁠" Ohm, and the return of Nick "⁠nitr0⁠" Cannella. To add a bit of continuity, Keith "⁠NAF⁠" Markovic quelled the rumors of his departure by extending his contract with the organization.

The last hope of North America in Katowice did not get off to the greatest of starts in 2022, leaving BLAST Spring groups with only one win to their name against Evil Geniuses. Despite this, the future is not as bleak as it might first appear, young oSee had his moments against his regional rivals and a few against FaZe and can only grow from there and form a deadly trident alongside the ever-reliable NAF and Jonathan "⁠EliGE⁠" Jablonowski.

nitr0 and co. expectations for Katowice are not monumental, for the squad their main aim is to show improvement, especially when it comes to oSee's impact on the server. Getting out of the group stage would be a victory, anything on top of that is a bonus.