GamerLegion seek to squash Vitality's party in Paris

Can David take down Goliath in the last CS:GO Major final?

It is finally upon us, the last ever CS:GO Major final, the end of a story that began nearly 10 years ago at DreamHack Winter 2013. How poetic it is that such a beautiful story has unfolded in the last marquee spectacle of our game, a story that will pitch heavy underdogs GamerLegion against the home-crowd favorites Vitality.

GamerLegion, an unfancied tier two squad that began their Major with disappointing defeats to teams unlikely to put together a deep run of their own. Instead of folding they recovered and they did so in spectacular fashion, taking down multiple top-15 sides on their way to an unprecedented grand final run, powered along the way by a breakout performance from Mihai "⁠iM⁠" Ivan. Vitality a team long touted as trophy-worthy but unable to get their consistently. This year brought with a steady building of their power, Lotan "⁠Spinx⁠" Giladi, Emil "⁠Magisk⁠" Reif and Peter "⁠dupreeh⁠" Rasmussen stepping up a level to support their superstar AWPer, and now at the Major they have romped through to the finals with ease.

It seems now the fairytale run must end for GamerLegion, they are facing the stiffest opposition they have had to contend with yet, and iM will finally be facing a player who can match the level he has brought to this tournament, the superlative Mathieu "⁠ZywOo⁠" Herbaut. Are there any small edges that GamerLegion can find, any cracks in Vitality's armor that they can worm their fingers into and pry apart?

Star Power

Vitality certainly can claim to hold the advantage in firepower over GamerLegion, both in general terms and specifically at this Major. The Franco-Danish squad have four players rated 1.10 or better at this tournament, with both ZywOo and Spinx posting 1.22 or better. Their counterparts only have Frederik "⁠acoR⁠" Gyldstrand and iM playing at a 1.10 level or better. Beyond the stats, history and the eye test would also support this theory.

There is, however, one key edge that GamerLegion can look to in the hopes he can carry them to victory: iM. The Romanian reaper has been cleaving through teams single-handedly this tournament and sits at a quite frankly bonkers 1.44 average rating.

Dig a little deeper and the numbers continue to boggle, with iM leading the way in damage per round (98.3), impact rating (1.60) and kills per round (0.91) to name a few, all whilst sitting towards the top of the pile for total opening kills (42) and opening kills per round (0.16). Not only is iM putting up best-in-the-world ratings, he is doing so whilst performing an incredibly aggressive role, both on T side where he comfortably leads his team in opening attempts (28.5%), and on CT side where he is second (26.3%). How often does a player cracking open rounds for his team also manage to put up superstar overall fragging numbers? This man’s AK has been tearing heads off shoulders for fun this tournament, and it will need to continue to do so if GamerLegion want to complete the most historic Major victory of all time.

Offense

On the Terrorist side of the map, Vitality hold a small edge, sporting a 63.1% round win percentage to GamerLegion’s 61.3%. This may seem hardly worth mentioning, such a small percentage converts to a round or two over a series, but the narrow margins are what separates the good from the great, they are what separates a magical victory from a harrowing defeat. Vitality will be hoping to squeeze every last round they can out of this advantage, which stems from a few factors.

The first is Vitality can spread the load between three players, whilst GamerLegion are incredibly reliant on iM on the T side. Magisk, Spinx and ZywOo have all been putting in work on the tougher side of the game and have some of the best T-side ratings in the tournament, whereas the gap between iM and the next-best GamerLegion attacker is a gaping chasm. If iM dies in an offensive round without having significant impact, then GamerLegion’s chancing of winning said round go careening off a cliff. Vitality on the other hand are able to turn to others to get the job done. Considering iM’s form that has not been a problem at all for GamerLegion so far this event, but against the caliber of opponent that Vitality present, there is absolutely no guarantee that will continue to hold true.

The second and third are Vitality’s far superior traded percentage and utility ADR, 23.7% to 19.2% and 22.1 ADR to 12.0 ADR. These numbers confirm the idea that GamerLegion are very reliant on their star individual to get the job done on offense, they simply aren’t as effective at trading deaths or utilizing their utility to grant them an edge in terms of HP in rounds. GamerLegion are battering through teams with a hammer, whereas Vitality are a little bit more nuanced in the way they go about things.

Defense

Here GamerLegion have a healthy advantage, a 56.8% round win percentage to Vitality’s 50.4%, and they will need to milk that advantage for all it’s worth if they want to take the Major trophy home.

The reasons for this advantage? It boils down to two factors. The first is that GamerLegion have the best 4v5% in the tournament, they win a whopping 37.7% of the rounds in which they give up the first death on defense. Not only is this a testament to the superb calling of Kamil "⁠siuhy⁠" Szkaradek on defensive halves, but it is also a testament to the fact that GamerLegion's potency is far more evenly spread across their individuals on the CT side, it’s not simply the iM show. Make no mistake, the Romanian is still their best player on defense, but acoR and siuhy are far closer in terms of rating and impact and Isak "⁠isak⁠" Fahlén can be counted on for some good rounds as well. This is emphasized by the second factor, their immense 0.99 multi-kills on the CT side. Simply put, GamerLegion outstrip Vitality in both aspects, and being so tough to put away in rounds AND so capable of getting multi-kills will be absolutely key for the underdogs.

Maps

The veto may be a rough one for GamerLegion, unless they have any tricks up their sleeve. Each team has a perma ban, Anubis for GamerLegion and Ancient for Vitality. Taking a peek at the stats for the last three months, the rest of the map pool seems Vitality favored. The only map on which they don't have a superior winrate is Overpass, which will likely serve as GamerLegion's pick, barring any surprises. Everywhere else they sport an advantage statistically, and bear in mind they also have played a higher quality of opposition, on average, to accrue these stats.

Taking a look at the maps played in the Legends Stage onwards in Paris, much of the stats from the last three months continue to hold true. Overpass has still been a fruitful battleground for GamerLegion, the team having thumped Monte on the map and also beaten fnatic and Apeks. Mirage has also treated the European squad well, with their 16-6 win against Heroic serving as the most resounding endorsement of their proficiency. Vitality by contrast haven't played Overpass yet this event, and they only have a narrow 16-14 win over Apeks to their name on Mirage. Trying to steer the veto towards a Mirage decider may be the way forward for GamerLegion, or alternatively they could take their 16-14 win on Inferno against Heroic as proof they should try Vitality's as yet untested (at this event) Inferno.

Vitality have won every map they have played so far, with three wins from three attempts on Vertigo making that their strongest field of play. Should that come through as a decider, Vitality would be very happy, as it is also one of their best maps overall. Outside of that the Franco-Danish squad have very little to fear, and should be comfortable of securing a advantageous veto.

The Intangibles

When everything is on the line and you are on a stage in front of thousands of people, the intangibles come into play, aspects that are difficult to measure the value of statistically but have a very real impact on the outcome of a match. The absolutely vast difference in experience between the two teams, as well as the impact of the crowd, will be the two intangibles that will hold the most significant sway as GamerLegion seek to upset Vitality.

The crowd will undoubtedly be on Vitality’s side, despite GamerLegion enjoying crowd-favorite status in their matches up to now. It is a French organization, and of course the Major is taking place in Paris. Two French players represent them, Dan "⁠apEX⁠" Madesclaire and ZywOo, two legends of the game in different ways but both can count on the full backing of their countrymen in the crowd. The Golden Hornets, Vitality’s official fan association, have been making a racket at every opportunity as Vitality have taken to the stage, to the extent that Thomas "⁠Thomas⁠" Utting marvelled at their immense support. Can a team full of relatively inexperienced players on the big stage in the form of GamerLegion handle such pressure? Whilst they have proved they won’t fold completely just because they are on a stage in front of a crowd, dealing with a hostile one is an entirely different story, as Natus Vincere found out to their cost at the IEM Rio Major last year.

Which leads us to our second and arguably more important intangible, experience. Yes, one can measure experience in terms of years in the scene and in terms of stage games played, but the exact effect this will have on any one particular game is not so clear. Heroic can attest to that following their defeat to GamerLegion in the semi-finals. At times a lack of experience can actually be a boon, it can free one of the shackles of expectation and the pressure of being a favorite, it can allow a team to play with no fear. GamerLegion will be hoping to harness this fearlessness, and they may even be hoping to develop a bit of a siege mentality: the whole world (or so it will seem inside that arena) is against them.

Vitality, by contrast, will be hoping to harness every bit of experience their Danish trio, and of course apEX, have accrued over many years of competing for and winning the most prestigious trophies this game has to offer. They have a list of event wins between them that is as long as your arm, and when it comes to Majors there is no squad in the game that can hope to compete, as they have 12 winner’s medals between them (including coach Danny "⁠zonic⁠" Sørensen). Having been there and done it will serve as a balm to soothe the nerves in the crunch moments, when the game gets tough and each round becomes more important than the last. Vitality have been there and done it, as recently as at IEM Rio, and GamerLegion’s experience pales in comparison.