Win probability matrix, probabilities denounce chance of winning of team starting the map as CT.
Team starting as Terrorist, rounds won
Team start as CounterTerrorist, rounds won
R
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
0
40%
33%
26%
26%
21%
11%
10%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1
49%
42%
22%
23%
17%
12%
18%
18%
18%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

2
57%
69%
47%
48%
31%
7%
13%
18%
23%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
3
57%
56%
32%
42%
44%
31%
31%
31%
36%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
4
68%
74%
44%
36%
32%
15%
18%
23%
50%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
5
67%
79%
60%
47%
47%
26%
20%
20%
25%
7%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
6
70%
76%
63%
62%
55%
44%
38%
40%
42%
14%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
7
83%
83%
54%
53%
54%
38%
33%
27%
38%
19%
17%
9%
10%
0%
0%
8
83%
100%
75%
62%
67%
46%
42%
44%
47%
23%
25%
0%
17%
0%
0%
9
80%
100%
80%
67%
82%
70%
50%
42%
47%
32%
19%
6%
20%
0%
0%
10
75%
100%
80%
50%
80%
75%
73%
73%
64%
73%
43%
14%
20%
0%
0%
11
75%
88%
86%
50%
56%
56%
45%
42%
53%
53%
38%
18%
27%
0%
0%
12
100%
100%
100%
75%
67%
63%
67%
38%
58%
64%
42%
37%
31%
10%
9%
13
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
80%
100%
75%
75%
83%
56%
58%
40%
10%
17%
14
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
75%
80%
71%
57%
67%
45%
53%
50%
22%
25%
15
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
90%
78%
80%
67%
45%
38%
Win probability matrix, probabilities denounce chance of winning of team starting the map as Terrorist.
Team starting as Terrorist, rounds won
Team start as CounterTerrorist, rounds won
R
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
0
48%
54%
60%
61%
67%
79%
90%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
1
42%
47%
65%
66%
70%
76%
77%
76%
73%
83%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
2
34%
19%
41%
40%
56%
71%
75%
71%
69%
90%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
3
34%
32%
53%
38%
39%
50%
62%
54%
45%
78%
89%
89%
100%
100%
100%
100%
4
21%
21%
44%
50%
58%
65%
71%
62%
30%
75%
100%
83%
100%
100%
100%
100%
5
20%
16%
27%
33%
40%
58%
70%
65%
50%
73%
88%
83%
89%
86%
86%
100%
6
20%
12%
19%
15%
27%
44%
63%
60%
42%
64%
80%
90%
92%
91%
86%
100%
7
17%
17%
38%
29%
31%
44%
42%
60%
48%
69%
67%
82%
80%
86%
79%
100%
8
17%
0%
25%
15%
22%
54%
50%
44%
37%
62%
50%
83%
83%
100%
73%
100%
9
20%
0%
20%
8%
9%
30%
44%
42%
37%
63%
71%
81%
80%
100%
79%
92%
10
25%
0%
20%
13%
10%
13%
18%
9%
14%
18%
43%
64%
60%
83%
77%
91%
11
25%
13%
14%
20%
22%
33%
45%
33%
18%
20%
38%
64%
55%
88%
77%
78%
12
0%
0%
0%
13%
11%
13%
22%
50%
33%
29%
42%
47%
54%
70%
64%
70%
13
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
13%
0%
0%
22%
17%
40%
70%
50%
55%
14
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
14%
14%
8%
27%
20%
19%
56%
50%
54%
How do i read the win probability matrix?
Win probability is based on previous outcomes of all the matches in our database based on the selected filter.
The matrix above shows the win probability at any given score for a team that started the map on the CT side. That means that if you take a score from a live match, e.g. CT: 7, T: 11, you will see the win probability of the current Terrorist team (because the match is in the second half) in the matching cell.
Note: Overtimes are not included in the matrix above.
Alternatively, you could simply enter the score you're interested in into our calculator below.
The calculator will show you the win probability for the two sides, given a current score, be careful with probabilities around half changes, as the underlying teams will swap.
How do i read the win probability matrix?
Win probability is based on previous outcomes of all the matches in our database based on the selected filter.
The matrix above shows the win probability at any given score for a team that started the map on the T side. That means that if you take a score from a live match, e.g. CT: 7, T: 11, you will see the win probability of the current CounterTerrorist team (because the match is in the second half) in the matching cell.
Note: Overtimes are not included in the matrix above.
Alternatively, you could simply enter the score you're interested in into our calculator below.
The calculator will show you the win probability for the two sides, given a current score, be careful with probabilities around half changes, as the underlying teams will swap.
Terrorist
T

Terrorist win probability
T win probability
Overtime
OT

Overtime probability
OT probability
CounterTerrorist
CT

CounterTerrorist win probability
CT win probability
Note the calculator runs on all time stats, and will not adhere to current filters.